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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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05/13/2012 12:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
xray flux rising C4.4
Hugh M Eye

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05/13/2012 12:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Going vertical! Go baby go.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1632671


Is that the Monster finally waking up from his nap?


monsteralien16monster
Hugh M Eye

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05/13/2012 12:28 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
TWO EARTHBOUND CMEs to HIT HOURS APART ON MAY 14.

NASA CME Forecast times:
#1
Event Issue Date: 2012-05-12 09:54:16.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-05-14 14:28:15.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 16 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.2 Re

#2
Event Issue Date: 2012-05-12 00:05:12.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-05-14 19:26:12.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.2 Re

I'm not sure which cygnet model is #1 or #2 (don't blame me, NASA does a poor job of labeling things. Why they can't put multiple CMEs on one cygnet is beyond me; I've seen them do it before....jes' lazy, I guess,lol). One looks like a bullseye and the other a glancing blow.

# 2 -Bullseye:
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

# 1-Glancing-

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

iSWA (see Alerts):

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Maybe someone at NASA does monitor this thread (as well they should, right, Tomasgod?) because after my complaint last night the Earth-Sun footprint was updated today:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

I predict big auroras somewhere on Monday night.

I checked NOAA's ENLIL Model and they show two wimpy poofs from the Fizzle-Monster...I might be wrong about the auroras, oh, well. so it goes.

NOAA's ENLIL CME Model:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 05/13/2012 12:39 AM
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The Fizzzle-Monster has continued to disappoint the excitement-mongers (like me) and the doom-cravers (like me). AR1476 has diminished in size and power, and in recent images appears to be laughing at us in a muppet-like caricature.
:fizzle-monster:

WE have seen a C4 and a C7 recently, but a downward trend in activity is evident.

C7 Flare-
:C75/13:

Someone please check SOHO and STEREO coronagraphs in the morning, but it doesn't look like any new CMEs are coming as of this posting.. Keep alert, tho, as the Sun is always full of surprises.

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 05/13/2012 05:14 AM
MamaHasAwakened

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05/13/2012 10:25 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The Fizzzle-Monster has continued to disappoint the excitement-mongers (like me) and the doom-cravers (like me). AR1476 has diminished in size and power, and in recent images appears to be laughing at us in a muppet-like caricature.:fizzle-monster:

WE have seen a C4 and a C7 recently, but a downward trend in activity is evident.

C7 Flare-
:C75/13:

Someone please check SOHO and STEREO coronagraphs in the morning, but it doesn't look like any new CMEs are coming as of this posting.. Keep alert, tho, as the Sun is always full of surprises.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



chuckle
Anonymous Coward
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05/13/2012 10:27 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The Pleiades entering C3 FOV, Jupiter hidden behind the occulting disk, Mercury on deck and Venus in the hole.

[link to sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil]

May03-May24 Jupiter -2.0 mag left to right
May21-Jun02 Mercury -2.5 mag right to left
Jun01-Jun11 Venus -4.3 mag left to right

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to imageshack.us]

--
Spittin'Cesium

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05/13/2012 04:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Rawr!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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05/13/2012 06:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Two 'Sector Boundary Crossings' in just Two Days! [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Also Electron Flux is pretty high:CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1899
Begin Time: 2012 May 10 1415 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 11500 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Gah.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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05/13/2012 06:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Arff: [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

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05/13/2012 09:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Large filament eruption & CME spotted in the far northeast, near the noerth pole. Most likely a far-side event. Oh, there was also a C1 flare from the impotent Fizzle-Monster.
:erupt5/13:
Both STEREO & SOHO C3 show spectacular CME (not Earth-directed)-
:cme north A:
:cme north soho:
Hugh M Eye

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05/14/2012 12:17 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
New regions numbers 1482, '83, & '84. AR1482 is couple of spots just east of 1479; AR1483 is a small group of spots emerging east of 1477/78 in the south; and AR1484 consists of 2 spots coming over the NE limb.


:Product: Solar Region Summary
:Issued: 2012 May 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 135 Issued at 0030Z on 14 May 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 13 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1476 N09W33 183 0810 Fki 19 44 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1477 S23E07 142 0050 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1478 S24E16 134 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1479 N15E40 109 0040 Hsx 03 01 Alpha
1481 S10E61 088 0040 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1482 N14E51 100 0080 Dso 05 02 Beta
1483 S27E51 100 0010 Bxo 01 07 Beta
1484 N10E75 075 0020 Hsx 01 01 Alpha

IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
1474 N16W80 231
1475 N05W79 230
1480 S16W38 189
II. Regions Due to Return 14 May to 16 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
1466 N10 055
1468 N11 049
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Latest hi-res HMI Intensitygram image:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2012 03:34 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I have no idea why I'm even up and awake, but I'm currently watching a "hanging" C1.4 spike up.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2012 03:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I have no idea why I'm even up and awake, but I'm currently watching a "hanging" C1.4 spike up.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


it look as if it was going to max out but its still going C3.8 currently .
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2012 03:42 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Max 14/0738 C4.1
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2012 03:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Max 14/0738 C4.1
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9732769


... yup that's all she wrote hf

..or ???

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2012 03:51 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Max 14/0738 C4.1
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9732769


... yup that's all she wrote hf

..or ???

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


its just playing with us... lol :\
Isis One

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05/14/2012 03:52 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Max 14/0738 C4.1
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9732769


... yup that's all she wrote hf

..or ???

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


its just playing with us... lol :\
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9732769


Its still a nice one!!!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2012 03:53 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like 1476 on EVE 07:35 UTC [link to lasp.colorado.edu]
Hugh M Eye

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05/14/2012 04:18 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The revised ENLIL CME model shows only 1 CME (the other one got airbrushed out I guess) and the new forecast arrival time is 5/15 @ 4:00 UTC (the CME evidently stopped at Motel 6 for rester, LOL). I swear they just make this shit up sometimes. (see yesterday's 2 CME alerts)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I guess this 2nd CME never existed:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

NASA's integrated Space Weather Anaysis system still lists two CME arrivals on 5/14 @ 14:28 utc & 19:26 utc (who the hell knows?).

iSWA Alerts:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

AR1476 has produced another C4.1 (it's favorite number?) as it limps off toward the horizon.

H-alpha pic of C4.1 flare:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

farsidewtfhiding
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2012 04:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The revised ENLIL CME model shows only 1 CME (the other one got airbrushed out I guess) and the new forecast arrival time is 5/15 @ 4:00 UTC (the CME evidently stopped at Motel 6 for rester, LOL). I swear they just make this shit up sometimes. (see yesterday's 2 CME alerts)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I guess this 2nd CME never existed:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

NASA's integrated Space Weather Anaysis system still lists two CME arrivals on 5/14 @ 14:28 utc & 19:26 utc (who the hell knows?).

iSWA Alerts:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

AR1476 has produced another C4.1 (it's favorite number?) as it limps off toward the horizon.

H-alpha pic of C4.1 flare:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

:farside:wtfhiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Too funny Hugh .... sometimes it's just better to laugh, thank you hf

PS Best avatar yet !!

I'm getting a blank page on this link [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
Hugh M Eye

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05/14/2012 04:34 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The revised ENLIL CME model shows only 1 CME (the other one got airbrushed out I guess) and the new forecast arrival time is 5/15 @ 4:00 UTC (the CME evidently stopped at Motel 6 for rester, LOL). I swear they just make this shit up sometimes. (see yesterday's 2 CME alerts)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I guess this 2nd CME never existed:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

NASA's integrated Space Weather Anaysis system still lists two CME arrivals on 5/14 @ 14:28 utc & 19:26 utc (who the hell knows?).

iSWA Alerts:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

AR1476 has produced another C4.1 (it's favorite number?) as it limps off toward the horizon.

H-alpha pic of C4.1 flare:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

farsidewtfhiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Too funny Hugh .... sometimes it's just better to laugh, thank you hf

PS Best avatar yet !!

I'm getting a blank page on this link [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: TS66


Good morning, Friend!hf Try to copy and paste this> [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] . ..or use a search engine for iSWA/CCMC/NASA--there's a great deal of accumulated models and images there, but sometimes it's a clunky website to link to, haha. I've had to update my link to them a couple times.

Now get some sleep, we need you tomorrow to help us when the CMEs arrive. I'm glad someone likes one of my avatars, hehe, of course it's the Tesla tower on Long Island.

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 05/14/2012 04:37 AM
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2012 04:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well that can be scary too lol

See you tomorrow.
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2012 10:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Anyone have any info about the returning sunspots 1473/1469 ???
They actually look like they have joined forces to create a huge blemish on sol. I've looked around but can't seem to find much info in regard to classification etc for SSs on the backside of the sun.

We may not have to wait too much longer however to find out either way, looks like it is just coming over the far east side today. hf

:heliographic1:

From Solarham [link to www.solarham.com]
psyoptics

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05/14/2012 01:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The revised ENLIL CME model shows only 1 CME (the other one got airbrushed out I guess) and the new forecast arrival time is 5/15 @ 4:00 UTC (the CME evidently stopped at Motel 6 for rester, LOL). I swear they just make this shit up sometimes. (see yesterday's 2 CME alerts)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I guess this 2nd CME never existed:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

NASA's integrated Space Weather Anaysis system still lists two CME arrivals on 5/14 @ 14:28 utc & 19:26 utc (who the hell knows?).

iSWA Alerts:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

AR1476 has produced another C4.1 (it's favorite number?) as it limps off toward the horizon.

H-alpha pic of C4.1 flare:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

farsidewtfhiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Too funny Hugh .... sometimes it's just better to laugh, thank you hf

PS Best avatar yet !!

I'm getting a blank page on this link [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: TS66

gotta love the blank page....is that like a blank stare???
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
psyoptics

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05/14/2012 01:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
whata ya think they should just say...
site down for data manipulation...I mean correction.
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
joinca

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05/14/2012 03:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The Heliosphere Bow Shock Does Not Exist --> May 14, 2012
New results from NASA's Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) reveal that the bow shock, widely accepted by researchers to precede the heliosphere as it plows through tenuous gas and dust from the galaxy, does not exist.
According to a paper published in the journal Science online, the latest refinements in relative speed and local interstellar magnetic field strength prevent the heliosphere, the magnetic "bubble" that cocoons Earth and the other planets, from developing a bow shock. The bow shock would consist of ionized gas or plasma that abruptly and discontinuously changes in density in the region of space that lies straight ahead of the heliosphere.
The full article is here: [link to www.spacedaily.com]
popcorn
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson
Hugh M Eye

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05/14/2012 03:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A large CME has been detected by SOHO Cor2 today. It came from the SE limb region (near 1481) and is not Earth-directed.

SOHO C2 image:
:CME 5/14:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Excellent SDO/AIA 304 image of CME:
:5/14cme:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Also, our smallest active region, 1483, has recently produced a C 1.7 flare and an earlier C 1. This seems to be a potentially volatile region.

GONG H-alpha image:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
Goofy for God
For by Him All Things Were Created

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05/14/2012 08:29 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Guys what is to the left all the white dots

[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]
Job 37:13
He causes it to come,
Whether for correction,
Or for His land,
Or for mercy.(Read all of 37)
Hugh M Eye

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05/14/2012 08:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Guys what is to the left all the white dots

[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Goofy for God


I believe that is the Pleiades open star cluster. Pics and background here- (caution: nudity):

[link to earthsky.org]

More background on the mythtology of the Pleiades:

[link to www.naic.edu]

Home to the Pleiadeans, hehe.

alien03alien11

edit- Now I'm beginning to doubt my first hunch.....it's possble the star cluster seen on the SOHO C2 could be the Hyades. Both are in Taurus and very near the Sun now from Earth's perspective.

Hyades & Pleiades:

[link to www.plantanimalmineral.com]

Hyades wiki:

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

Home to the Hyadeans.

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 05/14/2012 10:46 PM
Hugh M Eye

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05/14/2012 11:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The Pleiades is not seen on the Cor 2, but in the upper left on the Cor 3 images. This pic from SOHO in 2000 shows a similar view as today's (minus the halo cme).
:Pleiades2000:
Here's a shot from today:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

The white dots on the Cor 2 are unknown (to me) background stars. There's billions and billions of them donchyaknow (the planet is Jupiter). The SOHO instruments were designed to look at and around the sun. If you want to look at other stars it's best to look AWAY from the Sun, LOL.

SOHO Star Map Tool (just enter the date and click):

[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

Anyhow, I found a simple planisphere star map you can print and cut out courtesy of the Canadian Government. I just made one--it's easy and free.

[link to www.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca]

As you may have noticed, both of NASA's CME arrival predictions=FAIL. Nary a ripple in the magnetosphere today. However, NOAA's tea-leave readers have prognosticated a 4:00 utc arrival (now) and we may be seeing some disturbance soon.
SOHO detects a spike in density:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

AR1476 has produced 2 more C-flares and the entire Sun appears to be simmering with lots of low-level activity. I think we're gonna see a higher number of sunspots than we've seen so far this cycle. Just a gut feeling that Cycle 24 is about to turn it up a notch.

AR1476 has produced about 105 C-flares (yes, I counted them!) and 11 M-flares since May 5th! An amazing turn of events compared to last months lull.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 05/14/2012 11:54 PM


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