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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
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05/16/2012 11:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
kk so here is an image of the flare for 01:47, the time they say the flare peaked
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
and here is one for 02:01, over 20min after they say the flare peaked
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

if you open the 2 in seperate tabs, and toggle between the 2, you can clearly see the flare was stronger at 02:01
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Very true!
Just because I am paranoid doesn't mean I am wrong.

Isaiah 5:20 (KJV)
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Anonymous Coward
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05/16/2012 11:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
kk so here is an image of the flare for 01:47, the time they say the flare peaked
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
and here is one for 02:01, over 20min after they say the flare peaked
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

if you open the 2 in seperate tabs, and toggle between the 2, you can clearly see the flare was stronger at 02:01
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Agreed. Thanks. Looking at the soho movie, it looks like a good size x. Snow more than x5. What do you think?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1534352
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05/16/2012 11:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another interesting piece to the May 20th puzzle? Assuming that it takes that long to get here... hmmm. Just speculating
Anonymous Coward
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05/16/2012 11:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I know I really can't tell. Does anyone have a pic of the x24 from uh was it, 03??
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 15388345
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05/16/2012 11:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The ACE satellite ALSO had a data gap at the time of the flare! After came back @2:45, the high-energy protons had jumped two levels.

ACE High Energy Protons plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Same thing w/ the Low Energy Protons:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE Electrons & Protons plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
alone
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
05/16/2012 11:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
kk so here is an image of the flare for 01:47, the time they say the flare peaked
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
and here is one for 02:01, over 20min after they say the flare peaked
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

if you open the 2 in seperate tabs, and toggle between the 2, you can clearly see the flare was stronger at 02:01
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Agreed. Thanks. Looking at the soho movie, it looks like a good size x. Snow more than x5. What do you think?
 Quoting: finley


ah man so hard to tell
all i can say, is it was bigger than than M5.1
how much bigger is anyones guess
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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05/16/2012 11:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I know I really can't tell. Does anyone have a pic of the x24 from uh was it, 03??
 Quoting: finley


here is that one, much bigger
[link to spark.ucar.edu (secure)]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
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05/16/2012 11:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I know I really can't tell. Does anyone have a pic of the x24 from uh was it, 03??
 Quoting: finley


here is that one, much bigger
[link to spark.ucar.edu (secure)]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


page not found?
Just because I am paranoid doesn't mean I am wrong.

Isaiah 5:20 (KJV)
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14733798
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05/16/2012 11:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks. I should know you'd have it. LOL. Now if I could only type that in my address bar. Ha. hfhf
NiNzrez (OP)

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05/16/2012 11:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
updated the blog with a bunch of info on this event
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 05/16/2012 11:59 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
05/17/2012 12:00 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I know I really can't tell. Does anyone have a pic of the x24 from uh was it, 03??
 Quoting: finley


here is that one, much bigger
[link to spark.ucar.edu (secure)]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


page not found?
 Quoting: whiteangel


google image "x flare 2003"
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
United States
05/17/2012 12:01 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Just because I am paranoid doesn't mean I am wrong.

Isaiah 5:20 (KJV)
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
eclectic mind

User ID: 12762865
Australia
05/17/2012 12:02 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wth is this, picture from 2002..

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
United States
05/17/2012 12:04 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I know I really can't tell. Does anyone have a pic of the x24 from uh was it, 03??
 Quoting: finley


here is that one, much bigger
[link to spark.ucar.edu (secure)]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


page not found?
 Quoting: whiteangel


google image "x flare 2003"
 Quoting: NiNzrez


[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
Just because I am paranoid doesn't mean I am wrong.

Isaiah 5:20 (KJV)
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 15388345
United States
05/17/2012 12:06 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
HOLY SHIT! This CME is really, really fast! The first SOHO pic (the crescent) was at 1:48z only ONE MINUTE after the flare's peak at 1:47z (using Noaa's #s of course). Earth will at least experience and Interplanetary Shock wave and it won't take 3-4 days. CME was fully visible on STEREO A @ 2:24z when it usually takes an hour or more for CMEs to show up on STEREO.

STEREO Ahead image-
:cme A2:
SOHO C2 image:
monster mash 2
SOHO C3 image:
:C3 proton storm:

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 05/17/2012 12:10 AM
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14733798
United States
05/17/2012 12:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks Hugh great pics. Thanks Nin here is pic.

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]


This is x 28 03. Wow.
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 15388345
United States
05/17/2012 12:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Somebody's workin' hard tonight (probably robots). CACTus CME tracking states the maximum velocity is 1582 kms/s. I think it may be much faster.

CACTus CME analysis details & movie:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

SEEDS movie is also posted:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

More to come on this event to be sure.
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 15388345
United States
05/17/2012 12:25 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks Hugh great pics. Thanks Nin here is pic.

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]


This is x 28 03. Wow.
 Quoting: finley


Wow, indeed! Thanks, Finley.

takecover!
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
United States
05/17/2012 12:28 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just saying.... :)

[link to www.ready.gov]
Just because I am paranoid doesn't mean I am wrong.

Isaiah 5:20 (KJV)
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
United States
05/17/2012 12:33 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.atam.org]

With all of this wonderful space drama going on, Eye expect a highly unusual Solar Pole shift between the 17th and 21st of May, where the Sun will develop 4 poles. This is something no one in our life has ever seen or experienced. Eye also expect a high M-class or X-class Solar Flare to impact our atmosphere around this time frame.

Alignment on the 20th also

Last Edited by WhiteAngel on 05/17/2012 12:35 AM
Just because I am paranoid doesn't mean I am wrong.

Isaiah 5:20 (KJV)
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
05/17/2012 12:35 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just saying.... :)

[link to www.ready.gov]
 Quoting: whiteangel

thanks for adding that! :)

SOLAR DOOM IS GETTING IT'S OWN TV SERIES!


[link to www.youtube.com]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 05/17/2012 12:44 AM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 5240732
United States
05/17/2012 12:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just saying.... :)

[link to www.ready.gov]
 Quoting: whiteangel

thanks for adding that! :)


[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


gasp
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
05/17/2012 12:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just saying.... :)

[link to www.ready.gov]
 Quoting: whiteangel

thanks for adding that! :)


[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


gasp
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5240732


that was my face 1st time i saw it! haha

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 05/17/2012 12:43 AM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 5240732
United States
05/17/2012 12:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just saying.... :)

[link to www.ready.gov]
 Quoting: whiteangel

thanks for adding that! :)


[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


gasp
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5240732


that was my face 1st time i saw it! haha
 Quoting: NiNzrez


is that a show that's coming out soon??? Cuz wow. With everything going on, it's hard to cast it aside as coincidence... yikes.
Solar Guardian

User ID: 16193564
Malaysia
05/17/2012 12:51 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
May 20 something will happen to the Sun!!!hidinghiding
Hugh M Eye

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05/17/2012 12:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
May 20 something will happen to the Sun!!!hidinghiding
 Quoting: Solar Guardian

Yes, it will turn into a huge black hole....

but only for 5 minutes.

Sunday is the Annular Eclipse, y'know)
Anonymous Coward
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05/17/2012 12:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
Solar Guardian

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05/17/2012 01:00 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
May 20 something will happen to the Sun!!!hidinghiding
 Quoting: Solar Guardian

Yes, it will turn into a huge black hole....

but only for 5 minutes.

Sunday is the Annular Eclipse, y'know)
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Crop circle way back indicates that a possible "event" will accompany the Annular Eclipse. Possibly something new...that hasn't happened for thousands of years.hiding
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 15388345
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05/17/2012 01:12 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Interplanetary Shocks and CMEs--
....evidence for shocks in the corona and solar wind came from type II solar radio bursts (whose drift speeds appeared small enough to be associated with a shock moving at the Alfven or fast mode speeds) and from the ``Sudden Storm Commencement (SSC)'' component of geomagnetic activity. Until recently it was thought that some shocks observed in the solar wind were associated with blast waves initiated by flares and others were driven ahead of plasma clouds ejected from the Sun (``coronal mass ejections or CMEs''). Now, however, the current belief is that all interplanetary shocks are associated with CMEs.

The basic situation is illustrated in Figure 11.14 [Cravens, 1997]: a dense, fast, magnetized loop or cloud of plasma is ejected from the Sun, moving like a piston into the pre-existing solar wind and creating a compression region bounded by a forward shock.

More here:
[link to www.physics.usyd.edu.au]

Top 5 Shocks recorded by Proton Monitor (note the 2nd biggest shock came from an M7 flare, bigger than the X17):

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

Selected list of Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEPEs) from Proton Monitor:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

Comprehensive list of all Proton Events (this one will the 5th of 2012 and the 3rd from an M-flare):

[link to umbra.nascom.nasa.gov]

Somebody wake up the boys at Lockheed! They haven't listed any flares since 12:21 yesterday 5/16.
Anonymous Coward
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05/17/2012 01:15 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
May 20 something will happen to the Sun!!!hidinghiding
 Quoting: Solar Guardian

Yes, it will turn into a huge black hole....

but only for 5 minutes.

Sunday is the Annular Eclipse, y'know)
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Crop circle way back indicates that a possible "event" will accompany the Annular Eclipse. Possibly something new...that hasn't happened for thousands of years.hiding
 Quoting: Solar Guardian



thats mombo jumbo

nothing will happen

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