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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Onthehook
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06/03/2012 02:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Darn good Hugh, but your not peer reviewed
Hugh M Eye

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06/03/2012 02:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M3.3 flare from 1496 has produced a Type IV Radio Busrt-

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 541
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 03 1808 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Jun 03 1752 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jun 03 1753 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jun 03 1754 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes

Peak Flux: 320 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 129 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS-

Solar Wind Data from SOHO shows density spike:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

GOES Electron Flux exhibits much disturbance:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

K-indices generally at 5=Storm level:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder magnetometer deviation peaked at 90NT (so far):

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE Mag-field data shows the flip-flopping Bz plot has gone North again:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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06/03/2012 02:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Darn good Hugh, but your not peer reviewed
 Quoting: Onthehook 7670361


Thanks, haha. I am suntard-reviewed however, LOL.

woohoolaughsun
Hugh M Eye

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06/03/2012 02:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is it too soon to tell if the M-flare popped a CME?
 Quoting: whiteangel


Howdy, Whiteangel.hi My guess would be no, due to the sharp, quick spike of the x-ray flux. Usually the fat-looking plots are due to CMEs. However, anything is possible so we'll wait and see. Often a large flare has ripple effects which can loosen filaments or spark more flares in other far-flung regions.

hiding
Anonymous Coward
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06/03/2012 02:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Check this out
whiteangel

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06/03/2012 02:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is it too soon to tell if the M-flare popped a CME?
 Quoting: whiteangel


Howdy, Whiteangel.hi My guess would be no, due to the sharp, quick spike of the x-ray flux. Usually the fat-looking plots are due to CMEs. However, anything is possible so we'll wait and see. Often a large flare has ripple effects which can loosen filaments or spark more flares in other far-flung regions.

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thank you hon. I am feeling rather proud as I thought this before I asked but needed to make sure. It is when those curves round out and we have a long lasting flare that typically pops the CME. I think I read when you posted that once, but needed that confirmed.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
El Quisqueyano

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06/03/2012 03:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Check out the Ground Level Enhancement of Neutrinos from that M3.3 flare;

[link to www.bartol.udel.edu]
Nacht im Walde

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06/03/2012 03:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
a faint CME was associated with this flare (doesn`t look like a big one):

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by Nacht im Walde on 06/03/2012 03:21 PM
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. - Anais Nin
Hugh M Eye

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06/03/2012 03:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
After a long quiet spell, we get hit with a geomagnetic storm and a major flare. I'm going crazy trying to keep everything updated. My desktop is now littered with links and pics and I'm quickly losing track.
shark

Yes, there was a CME seen on SDO from the M-flare. It doesn't appear Earth-directed, but we'll have to wait for more data from STEREO & SOHO.
:m3cme:

SDO images of flare/CME:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
:cme6/03:

There was also another CME at around 12:00 utc, which is what we're seeing on the STEREO & SOHO images so far--more on that later.

SOHO C2 image of earlier partial-halo CME:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 797
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 03 1830 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Jun 03 1759 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1077 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GEO-STORM UPDATE-

HAARP fluxgate magnetometer:

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

K-index of 6 reported from Norway:

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]

Kiruna, Sweden magnetometer:

[link to www.irf.se]

Potsdam K-index shows storm levels:

[link to www.theusner.eu]

Stackplot from Finland:

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 06/03/2012 03:45 PM
Luisport

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06/03/2012 03:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sunday June 3 2012, 19:20:43 UTC northern Italy 4.8 6.0 USGS Feed
Hugh M Eye

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06/03/2012 03:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Two SDO composite close-up movies of M3.3 flare from Solarsoft:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
Hugh M Eye

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06/03/2012 03:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CME is now visible on SOHO C2 images. We'll have to wait for STEREO to see if there's an Earth-directed component.

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
Nacht im Walde

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06/03/2012 04:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CME is now visible on SOHO C2 images. We'll have to wait for STEREO to see if there's an Earth-directed component.

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


see post above:

a CME was associated with this flare (doesn`t look like its Earth directed)


[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by Nacht im Walde on 06/03/2012 04:05 PM
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. - Anais Nin
ANHEDONIC

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06/03/2012 04:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Credit where credits due...he does a good job debunking a lot of the crap that gets posted on this site too...
i actually respect him and Tbar for their honest and accurate 'facts' that alot of people dont want to hear/read. the problem with this site is that too many people actually think they WANT doom, not realising the implications of what this means.
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


But try asking either of those 2 individuals a question that involves right-brain thinking. You know, a question that can't be answered with 'logic' or a formula found in a science book. They are only relying on half of their brain to get them by. Left-brain identification leads to being close-minded. It closes you off to your natural instincts & intuition. Destroys your internal 'truth-meter' because your reality only exists based on what is 'known' and 'scientifically proven' and 'seemingly logical'. Ask either of those 2 individuals what will happen to their individual consciousness (energy) when their physical body expires, and I don't think either one of them would even entertain you with an answer. Question like that for them will lead to cognitive dissonance and a very uncomfortable feeling (for them) because it would force them to identify with a part of their brain (mind) that they are not very familiar with.

Last Edited by ANHEDONIC on 06/03/2012 04:19 PM

"You will not be punished for your anger, you will be punished by your anger"
Hugh M Eye

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06/03/2012 04:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 491
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 03 1947 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 20 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G1 (Minor) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Jun 04

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This watch has been issued in advance for June 4th & 5th. I believe this is in anticipation of strong solar winds from the giant coronal hole. We'll possibly see some effects from several filament eruptions and CMEs, also; though NASA has no CME alerts listed, some of the eruptions in recent days may interact with the coronal hole winds. Should be an interesting and exciting few days ahead with the Venus transit, magnetic storms, and God knows what else coming.

duk-n-cover
El Quisqueyano

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06/03/2012 04:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 491
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 03 1947 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 20 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G1 (Minor) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Jun 04

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This watch has been issued in advance for June 4th & 5th. I believe this is in anticipation of strong solar winds from the giant coronal hole. We'll possibly see some effects from several filament eruptions and CMEs, also; though NASA has no CME alerts listed, some of the eruptions in recent days may interact with the coronal hole winds. Should be an interesting and exciting few days ahead with the Venus transit, magnetic storms, and God knows what else coming.

duk-n-cover
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I am anticipating this Venus transit. Can't wait.
Spittin'Cesium

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06/03/2012 06:03 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey all : )

What a mess [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
old guard

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06/03/2012 08:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Darn good Hugh, but your not peer reviewed
 Quoting: Onthehook 7670361


Thanks, haha. I am suntard-reviewed however, LOL.

woohoolaughsun
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


He certaintly is peer reviewed...how much more peer reviewed do want to get being on GLP?
old guard

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06/03/2012 08:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NiNzred's thread ia at 800!!!5a banana2
clappa
Onthehook
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06/03/2012 09:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
You know what I meant, try that in the "Scientific Establishment" It's beyond me all the political skills required to just get to do your experiment and get funding, so I do have a lot of respect for those guys that are making it work - Hugh also.
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NiNzred's thread ia at 800!!!5a banana2
clappa
 Quoting: old guard


WOW! I was so absorbed I hadn't noticed. Where has Ninz been anyway? I miss her and IWTB; thought she would appear today for the M-flare and geo-storm. Her blog was last updated on May 28. Maybe she's on spring break. I'll be worried if we don't hear from her by Tuesday's transit.

M3.3 flare close-up (the red stuff is part of the CME)-
:closeupM3:

SEEDS movie of today's 2 CMEs:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
Hugh M Eye

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06/03/2012 10:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
New region in the north-center is numbered 1499. Two small spots in the south remain un-numbered, one near each limb. AR1490 and '92 are decaying.

:Product: Solar Region Summary
:Issued: 2012 Jun 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 156 Issued at 0030Z on 04 Jun 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 03 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1490 S13W79 312 0040 Cso 04 02 Beta
1492 S14W44 277 0010 Bxo 02 02 Beta
1493 N14E23 209 0140 Dso 10 13 Beta
1494 S16E36 196 0100 Hsx 02 02 Alpha
1495 S15W21 253 0020 Hsx 02 02 Alpha
1496 N16E33 199 0070 Dso 05 07 Beta
1497 S21E09 223 0130 Dso 08 10 Beta
1498 N07E45 187 0040 Hsx 02 02 Alpha
1499 N16E50 183 0040 Dso 04 03 Beta

Recent HMI color Intensitygram image:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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06/03/2012 11:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm hoping to see the transit of Venus live through a telescope, but if it's cloudy or you don't have the proper optics there's a glut of webcasts promising live feeds (you'll go blind much slower online).

Transit of Venus viewing guide:

[link to www.skyandtelescope.com]

Where to see online feeds:

[link to www.skyandtelescope.com]

What do we know about the planet Venus?

[link to www.jpl.nasa.gov]
Spittin'Cesium

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06/03/2012 11:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It's all going terribly wrong [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Hugh,what do you make of all these events?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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06/03/2012 11:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I await another KP Alert.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Dead X-Ray [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] needs a little Giro-Winding.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

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06/04/2012 12:06 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It's all going terribly wrong [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Hugh,what do you make of all these events?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Whoa, I checked about 25 mins. ago and everything was calming down from the earlier storm. I don't know what's causing the GOES electron flux to dive like that. The ACE and SOHO solar wind plots don't indicate anything extreme coming in. Could it be the first breeze from the coronal hole?

ACE SW data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO SW data:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

Boulder Magnetometer does show a jump from a K-index of 2 to 2.9 (if it exceeds 3 they may issue another alert):

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Spittin'Cesium

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06/04/2012 12:11 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It's all going terribly wrong [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Hugh,what do you make of all these events?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Whoa, I checked about 25 mins. ago and everything was calming down from the earlier storm. I don't know what's causing the GOES electron flux to dive like that. The ACE and SOHO solar wind plots don't indicate anything extreme coming in. Could it be the first breeze from the coronal hole?

ACE SW data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO SW data:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

Boulder Magnetometer does show a jump from a K-index of 2 to 2.9 (if it exceeds 3 they may issue another alert):

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


This is happening(around)twice a Week now Hugh,originally it was put down to 'Sector Boundary Crossing' but being a Bi-Weekly occurrence I feel this needs reviewing : ?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
El Quisqueyano

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06/04/2012 12:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Significant earthquake precursor signal detected on 06/03/12 at 1730utc/1330est. Possible 6+.

Radio Direction Finder has signal coming in East of France from somewhere out in the Northern, Mid to Southern portions of the Pacific plate to Alaska, Canada and Chile.


All who live anywhere in the vicinity of this line trajectory should be wary next 5 hours. Have escape plan ready and seek open terrain in the event of felt tremor. Secure most of your heavy objects and belongings around your home.


Namaste,

Hopefully I am wrong. Or it hits an unpopulated area.
Japan is also a likely target. Be wary.
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


MAP 6.6 2012/06/04 03:15:25 5.508 -82.468 9.7 SOUTH OF PANAMA
MAP 6.2 2012/06/04 00:45:16 5.287 -82.580 9.7 SOUTH OF PANAMA
PowerOutage
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06/04/2012 12:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I wonder if the flare cause this:

[link to losangeles.cbslocal.com]
Hugh M Eye

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06/04/2012 01:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I wonder if the flare cause this:

[link to losangeles.cbslocal.com]
 Quoting: PowerOutage 9968554


Well, they said "metallic balloons" were the cause......uh, you wouldn't doubt a CBS report would ya?
Hehe, all kidding aside, today's storm was minor, but unpredicted (except on GLP!) and I doubt it was responsible for any power outages. Although, if an infrastructure flaw or strain was on the verge of failure, who's to say a little surge in ground currents couldn't provide that trigger for an avalanche. I wouldn't entirely rule it out. Thanks for the report, PO.
cheers

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