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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
old guard

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06/07/2012 07:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
IWTB got ahold of me, and says his internet problems will hopefully be gone next week.banana2
old guard

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06/07/2012 07:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What's up with all the spikes on the ACE graph?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
El Quisqueyano

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06/07/2012 07:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
IWTB got ahold of me, and says his internet problems will hopefully be gone next week.banana2
 Quoting: old guard


banana2afrorockon
old guard

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06/07/2012 07:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is that 7 'C' flares I'm seeing for today?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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Poland
06/07/2012 07:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Anonymous Coward
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06/07/2012 07:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
old guard

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06/07/2012 07:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Very cool!
old guard

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06/07/2012 08:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ionosphere map showing hot over central america

[link to www.ips.gov.au]
old guard

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06/07/2012 09:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ionospheric absorption has penetrated our 'shield' again

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

haarp mag is fired up again

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

Last Edited by old guard on 06/07/2012 09:29 PM
Anonymous Coward
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06/07/2012 09:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ionospheric absorption has penetrated our 'shield' again

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

haarp mag is fired up again

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
 Quoting: old guard


just get a 403 on both links?
Anonymous Coward
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06/07/2012 10:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
IWTB got ahold of me, and says his internet problems will hopefully be gone next week.banana2
 Quoting: old guard


Thanks OG hf
old guard

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06/07/2012 10:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ionospheric absorption has penetrated our 'shield' again

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

haarp mag is fired up again

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
 Quoting: old guard


just get a 403 on both links?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17553047


go to

[link to solarimg.org]
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 15388345
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06/07/2012 11:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here we go, Suntards, another strong flare from 1494! A C7.7; CME watch begins NOW as this region is staring almost straight at us.

GOES X-ray flux:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

H-alpha image of C7.7 flare:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Udaipur self-updating movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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06/07/2012 11:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here we go, Suntards, another strong flare from 1494! A C7.7; CME watch begins NOW as this region is staring almost straight at us.

GOES X-ray flux:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

H-alpha image of C7.7 flare:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Udaipur self-updating movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

X-ray still relatively high
Hugh M Eye

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06/07/2012 11:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can't say if the C7 produced a CME yet but there was an awesome prominence lift-off near the north pole. SDO images of C7.7 flare:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

From my limited experience, almost every active region that passes a C5 almost always gives us a high M or an X-flare at some point. Also, 1494 is very well-connected to regions in the north; so we may see sympathetic flares triggering back and forth. Just a wild guess....

SDO/HMI magnetic field diagram:

SORRY, NASA's LATEST IS 5 DAYS OLD! I think they spent too much on overtime for the Venus thing.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
wtf
Hugh M Eye

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06/08/2012 01:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA has issued 2 Radio emission alerts for the last C7 flare. Still watching for a CME. These indicators favor a CME event of some sort....stay tuned.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 799
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 08 0346 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Jun 08 0305 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 803 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.


Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 373
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 08 0346 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Jun 08 0308 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 15388345
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06/08/2012 02:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CME has been confirmed by STEREO A:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

The Earth-facing eruption was coincidental with the north pole filament eruption.

STEREO A:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO B:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

The last 4 NOAA numbered regions have all lost their spots!

:Product: Solar Region Summary
:Issued: 2012 Jun 08 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 160 Issued at 0030Z on 08 Jun 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 07 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1493 N15W33 212 0100 Eai 14 09 Beta-Gamma
1494 S18W19 198 0120 Dso 10 05 Beta-Gamma
1496 N16W24 204 0020 Hax 01 01 Alpha
1497 S21W44 223 0170 Dai 09 05 Beta
1498 N06W11 190 0050 Cao 06 04 Beta
1499 N15W09 189 0020 Cai 19 14 Beta-Gamma
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
1495 S15W74 254
1500 N09W77 257
1501 N07W30 210
1502 S17W02 182
1503 N09W69 249

II. Regions Due to Return 08 Jun to 10 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
None


Electron Warning for the 3rd consecutive day:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 1912
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 08 0501 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1911
Begin Time: 2012 Jun 06 1210 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 10230 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Electron Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

hiding

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 06/08/2012 02:40 AM
Anonymous Coward
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06/08/2012 03:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
its june 8th
Hugh M Eye

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06/08/2012 03:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
its june 8th
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17559284


Aye, it is. My deceased parents anniversary, and possibly the day of my conception.....thanks for the reminder.
Hugh M Eye

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06/08/2012 03:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1493 (the former Monster) has produced a C 4.8 flare.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

This region is also well-positioned to give Earth a blast if a CME was launched.

GONG H-alpha movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Last CME from 1494's C7 flare-
:cme2_d7:
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 17534942
Australia
06/08/2012 04:58 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1493 (the former Monster) has produced a C 4.8 flare.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

This region is also well-positioned to give Earth a blast if a CME was launched.

GONG H-alpha movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Last CME from 1494's C7 flare-
:cme2_d7:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Great Job Hugh, keeping on top of all thats going on mate.
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 17534942
Australia
06/08/2012 09:53 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Damn!!
We seem to have a rather nasty case of Electron bombardment...
[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 08 Jun 2012, 1053UT

Thirteen C-class flares were detected during the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 1499 (Catania sunspot groups 64 and 74) produced the strongest of them, the C9.1 flare peaking at 15:43 UT on June 7. The C7.7 flare peaking at 03:07 UT today, from the Catania sunspot group 63 (NOAA AR 1494) was accompanied with the coronal dimming and southward directed CME first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 04:17 UT. We expect more flaring activity at the C-class level, in particular from the NOAA AR 1499, and possibly also M-class flares. The influence of the fast speed stream, due to recurrent coronal hole is ceasing. The solar wind speed is about 580 km/s and slowly decreasing, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 5 nT. The last interval of the elevated value of local K index Dourbes (K=4) was reported on late June 6. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the following hours and possibly active conditions on June 10 due to the arrival of the CME-driven shock wave associated with the partial-halo CME from June 6... [link to sidc.oma.be]

Boulder Magnometer...look at the hrs '9-12'...
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Good site to track flares (if u aint got it already)..
[link to www.tesis.lebedev.ru]

Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Anonymous Coward
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06/08/2012 12:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Wow! Thanks for the post- I didn't realize there were so many!!bump
Hugh M Eye

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06/08/2012 06:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ENLIL CME-based SW Prediction model shows a second CME (from yesterday's C7 flare) arriving @ Earth on June 12.

*Note: the web address for ENLIL model has changed, so you may want to update your bookmarks.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SEEDS movie of CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

CACTus Details:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

NASA has not issued any alert for this CME as of this posting.

Nice SDO close-up of yesterday's C4.8 flare from 1493:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
Hugh M Eye

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06/08/2012 08:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
While flare activity has been low there has been a few CMEs, including a large blast from the far side seen on STEREO A:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

A large filament lifted off in the northeast and may be related to one the north polar CMEs. Also, an eruption from just over the southwest limb; both events seen on the Big Bear H-alpha movie loop:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

:limbflare6/8:
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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06/08/2012 11:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
At nickelback right now...rocking the house..seether tore it up and so did bush
Isis One

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06/08/2012 11:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Damn!!
We seem to have a rather nasty case of Electron bombardment...
[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 08 Jun 2012, 1053UT

Thirteen C-class flares were detected during the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 1499 (Catania sunspot groups 64 and 74) produced the strongest of them, the C9.1 flare peaking at 15:43 UT on June 7. The C7.7 flare peaking at 03:07 UT today, from the Catania sunspot group 63 (NOAA AR 1494) was accompanied with the coronal dimming and southward directed CME first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 04:17 UT. We expect more flaring activity at the C-class level, in particular from the NOAA AR 1499, and possibly also M-class flares. The influence of the fast speed stream, due to recurrent coronal hole is ceasing. The solar wind speed is about 580 km/s and slowly decreasing, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 5 nT. The last interval of the elevated value of local K index Dourbes (K=4) was reported on late June 6. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the following hours and possibly active conditions on June 10 due to the arrival of the CME-driven shock wave associated with the partial-halo CME from June 6... [link to sidc.oma.be]

Boulder Magnometer...look at the hrs '9-12'...
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Good site to track flares (if u aint got it already)..
[link to www.tesis.lebedev.ru]

Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Explains why I wanted to just sleep all day
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 15388345
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06/08/2012 11:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
At nickelback right now...rocking the house..seether tore it up and so did bush
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


bandheadbangcheersratdancerimshottriodrinks
Hugh M Eye

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06/08/2012 11:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A C 1.5 flare from 1499:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

2 or 3 large far-side CMEs seen on SOHO C3:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

farside
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 17634977
Australia
06/09/2012 12:32 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Note the faint dotted line on the Bz Down...along the dreaded 2.5 Hz.
[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
Could be Haaarp manipulation...will keep an eye on it..remember that haarp also can control weather, not just quakes...
Peace

Last Edited by nerdrage88sasr on 06/09/2012 12:33 AM
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)

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