SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Thanks SC.

Namaste.

No problemo 66.

Namaste.

Or something in our systems medium that is modulating the Polarities perhaps?

Although it took over 10 hours instead of the usual hour or two, we now have the Solarsoft/SDO close-up composite movie of the M-flare (2 versions). The first one looks like a massive electrical storm.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

Get ready for Saturday Night Auroras. NASA's CME arrival forecast-

Event Issue Date: 2012-06-13 14:01:51.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-06-16 19:52:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 12 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.3 Re

I'll predict another LDE M-Class event. I don't see an X happening. Call me optimistic or pessimistic, either way :)

Harmonic tremors are increasing at La Palma in the Canary Islands, go through the dates;

[link to www.ign.es]


Could this 12 hour duration CME effect that Volcano in any way? I have heard if enough of that energy reaches ground level, it could.

Last Edited by El Quisqueyano on 06/13/2012 10:23 PM

If you look at stereo, the data gap is about 3 hours, and even after it came back on, it was still spewing plasma

This is a good current view of the magnetic fields as well....
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Some of elusive missing SOHO C2 images are now processed:

[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

Master list found at Naval Research Lab:

[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

Hopefully we'll have CACTus and SEEDS movies before long.

Here is a photo that I took at 6:30PDT in California of the sunspots.
[link to img62.imageshack.us]

Now that is an interesting thought CS!!!

How do we know if a CME is earth directed and when it's going to arrive?
When there are huge explosions on the Sun you don't know immediatly if it has an earth directed CME. In this article we digg a bit deeper in the methods that you can use so that you can determine when we have an Earth directed CME and when it's going to arrive on Earth.
1. Using the proton flux monitor
On our website you\ll find a data plot with the primary >10MeV solar protons, or in short the Proton flux monitor. With huge explosions on the Sun a Solar radiation storm can be triggered. The Solar protons get blown into space with the speed of light and are the first particles to arrive at Earth. So we know verry fast if a Solar radiation storm is triggered and, in a less accurate way, if the CME is Earth directed.
The full article is here: [link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]

Using the proton flux to determine CME geoeffectiveness can be misleading. Proton events have reached Earth from far-side eruptions (rare, but it happens-as recently as last month) whereas the CME was not Earth-directed. Many Earth-directed CMEs (like today's) have no effect on the proton flux.

[link to umbra.nascom.nasa.gov]

Here's a pdf of a paper on predicting CME geoeffectiveness:

[link to www.agu.org]

And another:

[link to iopscience.iop.org]

As an amateur enthusiast I prefer the visual method-lookin' at the pix, haha.

By the way, here's the CACTus details of CME prior to SOHO pooping-out. The mean velocity seems to be a quick 1734 km/s--we should see a pretty good shock when it arrives.

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

This is how the (incompetent?) pros cover-up their mistakes. Just checked CACTus again for new updates and they have removed the Event that I just posted and released this new one. Now the velocity is only 449 km/s only a small difference of around 1300 km/s!!! I guess I take back what I said about the shock-wave, LOL.

New, Improved CACTus details:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]



Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 06/13/2012 11:31 PM

Once in a while, in cycles of every few thousands of years or tens of thousands of years, our Sun, may produce a superflare that dwarfs even the flare and CMEs that caused the Carrington event. Please read this thread: Thread: Life-ending superflares and megaflares possible on Sun-type stars

This thread might also be of particular interest to Suntards.
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]

Thanks, S'Guardian, Might you be referring to this S&T article:

[link to www.skyandtelescope.com]

We have entertained this topic before and the "official view" is that these stars have a much higher rotation speed than our Sol. But I believe our limited observations of the sun, billions of years old, means ANYTHING could happen.

Back to the censorship desk, I don't think its incompetence - just my guess, who knows

Sure makes them look sloppy

Yes. There were no instruments to measure solar activity tens of thousands of years ago, so we don't know how our sun works 100%.

But, please take note of the bolded parts from that article:

Most of the 365 superflares observed occurred on stars that rotated in less than 10 days. This is in line with expectations, because stars that rotate quickly — which tend to be young — have more magnetic energy to burn, as their magnetic fields are generated by the convection of ionized gas. But curiously, about a quarter of the superflares occurred on slower-spinning stars like the Sun, which takes about a month to complete one rotation.

How could such magnetic lightweights generate superflares? Schaefer and others have previously suggested that magnetic interactions with nearby Jupiter-like planets could be to blame2. "In a [regular] solar flare, you have magnetic fields coming out of one sunspot and going into its companion sunspot and those get twisted and they break," he says. Instead, he says, the magnetic field could go out of the superflare star and connect to a 'hot Jupiter' nearby, acting like a rubber band connecting the two. As the planet orbited, the field would tauten, getting stronger by drawing the planet closer, until it ultimately snapped, releasing massive amounts of energy.

But none of the 148 superflare stars observed in this batch of Kepler data showed any signs of having a hot Jupiter. "It seems extremely unlikely that a planet is causing these flares," says Lucianne Walkowicz, a Kepler team member at Princeton University in New Jersey. "More likely, it means that even when [stars are rotating slowly], they are occasionally able to store up their magnetic energy and release it in these big flares. It's really a mystery as to how and why that happens."

From: [link to www.nature.com]

Well, as long as they get it right in the end, eh? But if an umpire calls a strike, and then changes his mind and says "Ball 4", I guarantee he'll be booed and heckled. CACTus is SIDC in Belgium, not NASA, but the sluggishness of Solarsoft and other NASA affiliated sites shows me they're not as serious as we are most days.

Amazing close-up composite images of AR1504 from SDO shows what looks to me as a hurricane eye-wall:
:1504hurricane:

This image shows the synergistic relationship of 1504, 05, & 07-
:1504,05,07:
Latest hi-res composite:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I'm glad Dr. Strong mentioned the rotation within 1504. I noticed this yesterday but posted the hi-res images w/o comment. As I look more closely at the color magnetogram, I notice two "hurricanes" rotating in opposite directions. The north pole of 1504 (blue-green) is rotating clockwise and the south pole (yellow-red) is rotating away counterclockwise. Like winding a double spring, if a spring breaks the gates of hell may open.

INSERT SMILIE HERE

Latest color magnetogram:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

looks like we miss the worst this time.
[link to spaceweather.com]

i like this. saw it during my show today....look way F#@#ed up down there
[link to spaceweather.com]

What show? Do ya have an internet stream? Please give yourself a plug, mate.

Great video, I loved the doom-music! Have you ever heard King Crimson's "Epitaph" ? Great shit, man.

[link to www.youtube.com]

Here, finally, is the SEEDS movie of the M-flare CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Now I can get some sleep and wake up to another major flare event, LOL. Buenos noches, Suntardos.

Keep the vigil for me as I sleep with one eye open.

another LD flare....