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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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06/13/2012 09:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looking wild and ready to snap on the GOES X-Ray [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


That's one hell of a shot SC ....
El Quisqueyano

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06/13/2012 09:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looking wild and ready to snap on the GOES X-Ray [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


We are under an active region proximity alert;

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
El Quisqueyano

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06/13/2012 09:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Look at the Arcs from 1498 [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] !

Wow : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Wow.
Anonymous Coward
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06/13/2012 09:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looking wild and ready to snap on the GOES X-Ray [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


We are under an active region proximity alert;

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


What does that mean exactly ?

That it's proximity is Earth Facing ??
El Quisqueyano

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06/13/2012 09:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looking wild and ready to snap on the GOES X-Ray [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Is earth facing this?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Dead on ....
 Quoting: TS66


Did you see the blast of plasma on Stereo Ahead COR2?


[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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06/13/2012 09:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looking wild and ready to snap on the GOES X-Ray [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Is earth facing this?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Dead on ....
 Quoting: TS66


Did you see the blast of plasma on Stereo Ahead COR2?


[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


From the LDE ??? Yes.
Spittin'Cesium

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06/13/2012 09:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looking wild and ready to snap on the GOES X-Ray [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Is earth facing this?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


It has the potential to affect Earth due to its' location,yes : ?

Here is what Mr.Keith Strong has to say about 1504,if you have'nt already seen it:


[link to www.youtube.com]

Amazing to see it rotate and form such incredible Spirals in the Penumbra and Umbra!
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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06/13/2012 09:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
This model shows the CME impacting earth
Anonymous Coward
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06/13/2012 09:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Interesting ... ISWA is predicting 1504 has a 63% at an M, and a 66% at a X ......

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thanks ElQ, lost that link when my computer crashed hf

Up again [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Spittin'Cesium

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06/13/2012 09:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Interesting ... ISWA is predicting 1504 has a 63% at an M, and a 66% at a X ......

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thanks ElQ, lost that link when my computer crashed hf
 Quoting: TS66


I think they are correct considering just how much it has wound itself up!

It will snap for also for sure : ?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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06/13/2012 09:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
This model shows the CME impacting earth
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


Oofff!

Schnappllezzz.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 06/13/2012 09:52 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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06/13/2012 09:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looking wild and ready to snap on the GOES X-Ray [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


That's one hell of a shot SC ....
 Quoting: TS66


Crazy towering Arcs from 1498!
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
shadasonic

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06/13/2012 09:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
These Sunspot Groups are just incredible!
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


If we don't get some decent solar storms from these guys I'm going to really believe 'someones' watching out for us, or theres an odd, unexplained polarity between us and SOLS SS.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
El Quisqueyano

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06/13/2012 10:04 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looking wild and ready to snap on the GOES X-Ray [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Is earth facing this?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


It has the potential to affect Earth due to its' location,yes : ?

Here is what Mr.Keith Strong has to say about 1504,if you have'nt already seen it:


[link to www.youtube.com]

Amazing to see it rotate and form such incredible Spirals in the Penumbra and Umbra!
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Thanks SC.

Namaste.
El Quisqueyano

User ID: 17895130
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06/13/2012 10:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Interesting ... ISWA is predicting 1504 has a 63% at an M, and a 66% at a X ......

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thanks ElQ, lost that link when my computer crashed hf

Up again [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


No problemo 66.

Namaste.
Spittin'Cesium

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06/13/2012 10:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
These Sunspot Groups are just incredible!
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


If we don't get some decent solar storms from these guys I'm going to really believe 'someones' watching out for us, or theres an odd, unexplained polarity between us and SOLS SS.
 Quoting: shadasonic


Or something in our systems medium that is modulating the Polarities perhaps?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

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06/13/2012 10:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Although it took over 10 hours instead of the usual hour or two, we now have the Solarsoft/SDO close-up composite movie of the M-flare (2 versions). The first one looks like a massive electrical storm.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

spock
Hugh M Eye

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06/13/2012 10:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Get ready for Saturday Night Auroras. NASA's CME arrival forecast-

Event Issue Date: 2012-06-13 14:01:51.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-06-16 19:52:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 12 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.3 Re


duk-n-cover
Anonymous Coward
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06/13/2012 10:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Although it took over 10 hours instead of the usual hour or two, we now have the Solarsoft/SDO close-up composite movie of the M-flare (2 versions). The first one looks like a massive electrical storm.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

spock
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

damned
MARsSPEED
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06/13/2012 10:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'll predict another LDE M-Class event. I don't see an X happening. Call me optimistic or pessimistic, either way :)
El Quisqueyano

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06/13/2012 10:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Get ready for Saturday Night Auroras. NASA's CME arrival forecast-

Event Issue Date: 2012-06-13 14:01:51.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-06-16 19:52:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 12 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.3 Re


duk-n-cover
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Harmonic tremors are increasing at La Palma in the Canary Islands, go through the dates;

[link to www.ign.es]


Could this 12 hour duration CME effect that Volcano in any way? I have heard if enough of that energy reaches ground level, it could.

Last Edited by El Quisqueyano on 06/13/2012 10:23 PM
Anonymous Coward
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06/13/2012 10:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Get ready for Saturday Night Auroras. NASA's CME arrival forecast-

Event Issue Date: 2012-06-13 14:01:51.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-06-16 19:52:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 12 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.3 Re


:duk-n-cover:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

If you look at stereo, the data gap is about 3 hours, and even after it came back on, it was still spewing plasma
joinca

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06/13/2012 10:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This is a good current view of the magnetic fields as well....
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Hugh M Eye

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06/13/2012 10:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Some of elusive missing SOHO C2 images are now processed:

[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

Master list found at Naval Research Lab:

[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

Hopefully we'll have CACTus and SEEDS movies before long.
joinca

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06/13/2012 10:33 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here is a photo that I took at 6:30PDT in California of the sunspots.
[link to img62.imageshack.us]
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Vesper33
Silver Pools of Light

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06/13/2012 10:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
These Sunspot Groups are just incredible!
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


If we don't get some decent solar storms from these guys I'm going to really believe 'someones' watching out for us, or theres an odd, unexplained polarity between us and SOLS SS.
 Quoting: shadasonic


Or something in our systems medium that is modulating the Polarities perhaps?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Now that is an interesting thought CS!!!hmm
Perfer et Obdura;Dolor hic tibi proderit olim.Fortes Fortuna Iuvat! (Be Patient & Strong; someday this pain will be useful to you. Fortune favors the brave)
joinca

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06/13/2012 10:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
How do we know if a CME is earth directed and when it's going to arrive?
When there are huge explosions on the Sun you don't know immediatly if it has an earth directed CME. In this article we digg a bit deeper in the methods that you can use so that you can determine when we have an Earth directed CME and when it's going to arrive on Earth.
1. Using the proton flux monitor
On our website you\ll find a data plot with the primary >10MeV solar protons, or in short the Proton flux monitor. With huge explosions on the Sun a Solar radiation storm can be triggered. The Solar protons get blown into space with the speed of light and are the first particles to arrive at Earth. So we know verry fast if a Solar radiation storm is triggered and, in a less accurate way, if the CME is Earth directed.
The full article is here: [link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Hugh M Eye

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06/13/2012 11:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
How do we know if a CME is earth directed and when it's going to arrive?
When there are huge explosions on the Sun you don't know immediatly if it has an earth directed CME. In this article we digg a bit deeper in the methods that you can use so that you can determine when we have an Earth directed CME and when it's going to arrive on Earth.
1. Using the proton flux monitor
On our website you\ll find a data plot with the primary >10MeV solar protons, or in short the Proton flux monitor. With huge explosions on the Sun a Solar radiation storm can be triggered. The Solar protons get blown into space with the speed of light and are the first particles to arrive at Earth. So we know verry fast if a Solar radiation storm is triggered and, in a less accurate way, if the CME is Earth directed.
The full article is here: [link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]
 Quoting: joinca


Using the proton flux to determine CME geoeffectiveness can be misleading. Proton events have reached Earth from far-side eruptions (rare, but it happens-as recently as last month) whereas the CME was not Earth-directed. Many Earth-directed CMEs (like today's) have no effect on the proton flux.

[link to umbra.nascom.nasa.gov]

Here's a pdf of a paper on predicting CME geoeffectiveness:

[link to www.agu.org]

And another:

[link to iopscience.iop.org]

As an amateur enthusiast I prefer the visual method-lookin' at the pix, haha.

By the way, here's the CACTus details of CME prior to SOHO pooping-out. The mean velocity seems to be a quick 1734 km/s--we should see a pretty good shock when it arrives.

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Hugh M Eye

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06/13/2012 11:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This is how the (incompetent?) pros cover-up their mistakes. Just checked CACTus again for new updates and they have removed the Event that I just posted and released this new one. Now the velocity is only 449 km/s only a small difference of around 1300 km/s!!! I guess I take back what I said about the shock-wave, LOL.

New, Improved CACTus details:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

wtf

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 06/13/2012 11:31 PM
Solar Guardian

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06/14/2012 12:50 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Once in a while, in cycles of every few thousands of years or tens of thousands of years, our Sun, may produce a superflare that dwarfs even the flare and CMEs that caused the Carrington event. Please read this thread: Thread: Life-ending superflares and megaflares possible on Sun-type stars

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