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SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)

 
Onthehook
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06/16/2012 11:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Out of all of them, I actually trust the Russian's more than the rest, other than their own National Security I think they have a lot of the same transparent interest in making progress instead of trying to take over the world. I have been to Russia a few times, met a lot of real decent people, and they are naturals at working in space.
pray_Italy

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06/16/2012 11:13 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Ty SolarWatcher.... he uploaded it again....... although slightly enhanced and 10 secs longer:

Onthehook
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06/16/2012 11:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
This is what it looked like early on.
:Bow-shock:
:magnetopause:

NASA Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Fok Ring Current model:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

NASA Magnetopause 24 hr, simulation:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I have never seen the "Coke bottle" look before, but very simplistic representation - the pic.s using a faster supercomputer show the field twisted like a bowl of spaghetti
Hugh M Eye

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06/16/2012 11:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Looks pretty mild so far, but I don't think the second CME has arrived yet. If the speed estimates were correct (1000-1360 km/s) , we should see the SW higher than 400 km/s.

SOHO solar wind data:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

SOHO difference movie of halo CME of June 14 M-flare:

[link to www.lmsal.com]
NiNzrez (OP)

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06/16/2012 12:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
good afternoon everyone :)
NiNzrez (OP)

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06/16/2012 12:04 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Solar Wind Speed: 416.6
Density: 15.1
Bz: +4.9

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The density is slowly rising over the recent hours
i believe the brunt of the CME has not yet hit
Luisport

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06/16/2012 12:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Solar Wind Speed: 416.6
Density: 15.1
Bz: +4.9

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The density is slowly rising over the recent hours
i believe the brunt of the CME has not yet hit
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Do you know how much time to CME hit us?
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2012 12:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
THE ULTIMATUM EXPIRES ON 21/06
THE ANNOUNCES START 3 DAYS LATER
THE EVENT COMMENCES 3 DAYS LATER
THE LOCK-DAWN FINISHES ON 27/06
psyoptics

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06/16/2012 12:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Solar Wind Speed: 416.6
Density: 15.1
Bz: +4.9

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The density is slowly rising over the recent hours
i believe the brunt of the CME has not yet hit
 Quoting: NiNzrez


let hope for all those up in space this is not a big one.
as of yesterday we have some new explorers up there.
congrats to china with their first female in space and perfect launch to their new space station!!!





Last Edited by psyoptics on 06/16/2012 12:26 PM
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Hugh M Eye

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06/16/2012 12:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
The GOES Protons are STILL rising....very interesting.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

spock
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2012 12:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
what's with the huge jump at midnight?
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: mtn_mang


could anyone explain why this?
Luisport

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06/16/2012 12:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
The GOES Protons are STILL rising....very interesting.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

spock
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


What this means?
psyoptics

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06/16/2012 12:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
what's with the huge jump at midnight?
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: mtn_mang


could anyone explain why this?
way off the charts and fast!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18029063

a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
nerdrage88sasr

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06/16/2012 12:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
good afternoon everyone :)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Hey there Nin!
My time to log out, night all
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Luisport

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06/16/2012 01:15 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
The GOES Protons are STILL rising....very interesting.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

spock
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


What this means?
 Quoting: Luisport


Protons are spiking more... what this means? [link to www.n3kl.org]
whiteangel

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06/16/2012 01:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
The GOES Protons are STILL rising....very interesting.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

spock
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


What this means?
 Quoting: Luisport


Protons are hitting from the CME impact is my best guess.
I can see how it might be possible for a man to look down upon the earth and be an atheist, but I cannot conceive how a man could look up into the heavens and say there is no God.

--Abraham Lincoln
NiNzrez (OP)

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06/16/2012 01:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Solar Wind Speed: 416.6
Density: 15.1
Bz: +4.9

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The density is slowly rising over the recent hours
i believe the brunt of the CME has not yet hit
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Do you know how much time to CME hit us?
 Quoting: Luisport


im suspecting a good chunk of it, but that would not be in the front section
this because of the merging in space of the 2 CMEs
the 1st CME was only a glancing blow, thus the front of the inpact would be to the side
the 2nd CME was a direct shot, thus the middle part of the impact would be more of a direct hit
i would say not to much longer that we see the rise from the 2nd part, but as with all CME impacts, this is only a guess ^^

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 06/16/2012 01:23 PM
NiNzrez (OP)

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06/16/2012 01:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
what's with the huge jump at midnight?
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: mtn_mang


could anyone explain why this?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18029063


i believe that has to do with the lazer like CME shot
there was 2 around that time
one to the south and one to the east
the one to the shouth is the one i believe caused this
i do need more time to run through data to be sure
nerdrage88sasr

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06/16/2012 01:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
interesting pattern...?
[link to www.irf.se]
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
NiNzrez (OP)

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06/16/2012 01:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
good afternoon everyone :)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Hey there Nin!
My time to log out, night all
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


have a good rest :)
thanks for all your additions while us northerns slept ^^
nerdrage88sasr

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06/16/2012 01:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
good afternoon everyone :)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Hey there Nin!
My time to log out, night all
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


have a good rest :)
thanks for all your additions while us northerns slept ^^
 Quoting: NiNzrez


welcome
big_smile
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
nerdrage88sasr

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06/16/2012 01:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
what's with the huge jump at midnight?
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: mtn_mang


could anyone explain why this?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18029063


i believe that has to do with the lazer like CME shot
there was 2 around that time
one to the south and one to the east
the one to the shouth is the one i believe caused this
i do need more time to run through data to be sure
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Yeah, im with you Nin, think some of the energy hit us REALLY fast and hard from the last LDE.
im a bit suprised by the lack of SW speed atm, but as you said, this could be from the small 'glancing' CME, with the more direct facing one to hit us shortly, sort of as a 'double-whammy'...anyway, to bed i must go.
Peace all
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
NiNzrez (OP)

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06/16/2012 01:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
check out the global D map
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
nerdrage88sasr

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06/16/2012 01:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
check out the global D map
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Damn!
Last thing-- Solar Soft has 1504 as having a 13% chance of an X-Flare and 41% chance of an M.
9 C-Class flares last two days/ so far....with the Beta/Delta/Gamma config now...
[link to www.solarmonitor.org]
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
truz1980

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06/16/2012 01:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Just wanted to thank you all for your hard work and great info. I learn so much from you guys and it means alot to all of us. hf
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2012 01:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
check out the global D map
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


ee gads ... haven't see that in awhile
NiNzrez (OP)

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06/16/2012 01:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 358
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 16 1716 UTC


WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Jun 16 1715 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jun 17 1715 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies
Hugh M Eye

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06/16/2012 02:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
what's with the huge jump at midnight?
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: mtn_mang


could anyone explain why this?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18029063


I think it's bad data or a hiccup in the detectors. I've noticed these spikes a lot recently (every other day or so) and they don't seem to correlate to any solar activity. There was a C-flare at 1:00 UT but nothing at 00.00 UTC.
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2012 02:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
what's with the huge jump at midnight?
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: mtn_mang


could anyone explain why this?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18029063


I think it's bad data or a hiccup in the detectors. I've noticed these spikes a lot recently (every other day or so) and they don't seem to correlate to any solar activity. There was a C-flare at 1:00 UT but nothing at 00.00 UTC.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


could very well be... ACE is overdue for system failure anyway :/
Anonymous Coward
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06/16/2012 02:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
what's with the huge jump at midnight?
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: mtn_mang


could anyone explain why this?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18029063


I think it's bad data or a hiccup in the detectors. I've noticed these spikes a lot recently (every other day or so) and they don't seem to correlate to any solar activity. There was a C-flare at 1:00 UT but nothing at 00.00 UTC.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


could very well be... ACE is overdue for system failure anyway :/
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18029063


Conveniently ....


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