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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14296220
Finland
07/07/2012 01:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
My app 3D Sun is just now alerting me to an X-Flare, the one we had earlier... :/
I saw the x when it happened a while ago. When I first got he alert I thought damn we have another. :/
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


It's pretty useless toy, alerts always come with a delay.
finley

User ID: 14733798
United States
07/07/2012 01:46 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks Hugh. How are you. We are waiting on the cme. What is your opinion of this cosmic ray density chart? Must be broke or we slipped timelines?? LOL.hiding
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 19275376
United States
07/07/2012 01:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SEEDS CME movie from X-Flare:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

STEREO A Cor2 movie:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Looks like it may have some Earth-directed elements, though not a direct hit.


:X CMEc2A:
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 19275376
United States
07/07/2012 02:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks Hugh. How are you. We are waiting on the cme. What is your opinion of this cosmic ray density chart? Must be broke or we slipped timelines?? LOL.hiding
 Quoting: finley


Doing well now, Finley. Thanks for asking.hf For past week or so my internet access has been going crazy and today I watched the x-flare helplessly trying to post and my browser was just freezing up. Thankfully that problem seems to be solved now so I feel less frazzled. It was taking 10 minutes to download a single solar image...very frustrating.

By the way, after an unusually hot June, today we had some rain and thunder and the temps dropped about 20 degrees. Right now Colorado is suddenly the coolest spot in America (excluding Alaska, haha).

Regarding Cosmic Rays, there are two main types detected at Earth; Galactic Cosmic Rays and Solar Cosmic Rays. During periods of high solar activity (like now) GCRs are minimal as they get swept away by the solar winds. Sometimes extreme solar activity will cause a jump in Solar cosmic rays which cause GLEs (Ground Level Enhancements). Any spike in cosmic rays now would be due to solar activity.

Check out the cosmic ray counter on the orbiting International Space Station's AMS2 (alpha-magnetic spectrometer). Wow, I just checked it briefly and you can see it speeding up.

[link to ams.nasa.gov]

The ICETOP Neutron Monitor doesn't seem to show any unusual spikes now:

[link to www.bartol.udel.edu]

To learn more, here's the homepage:

[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1271552
Croatia
07/07/2012 02:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to thewatchers.adorraeli.com]
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 19275376
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07/07/2012 02:43 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solarsoft/SDO close-up movie of X-flare w/ ejection:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

SOHO C3 Image of CME
:C3xxx:

AR1520 Looks Menacing
:HMI_latest1520:
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 19275376
United States
07/07/2012 02:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1271552


Well-done summary! More informative than Spaceweather.com's error-filled blurbs and regurgitated NASA press releases. Kudos.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1540313
United States
07/07/2012 03:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
what a great day, thanks for sharing all this great stuff everyone!
 Quoting: SpiderJones


Miss the old avatar, love the new one!
 Quoting: shadasonic


Thanks, I got a lot of negative feed-back w/ the birthday hair pix, people thought it was really me and hated it!1rof1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1540313
United States
07/07/2012 03:15 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solarsoft/SDO close-up movie of X-flare w/ ejection:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

SOHO C3 Image of CME
:C3xxx:

AR1520 Looks Menacing
:HMI_latest1520:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


doom music, please! that looks like a killer!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1540313
United States
07/07/2012 03:18 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1271552


OMG it's going to be a hot one on the 7th!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1540313
United States
07/07/2012 03:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1519!
61% chances for M flare
62% chance for X

How does flare monitor work?

Our agent program "SPIDER" connects to the SDO website every two minutes to search for the new HMI images and download them to our server.

These images are then processed using "ASAP" to automatically detect, group and then classify the sunspot groups and calculate their flaring probabilities.
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks, Nin!
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
07/07/2012 03:41 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1271552


Well-done summary! More informative than Spaceweather.com's error-filled blurbs and regurgitated NASA press releases. Kudos.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


ok ok ok i have to rant here for a moment about this site you just praised

-the 1st part of their report is mainly from solarham
(they do this a lot to solarham)

-the 2nd part is word for word c&p from SWPC
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

-the 3rd part (Sudden ionospheric disturbances) is word for word c&c from spaceweather.com for july 6
[link to spaceweather.com]

-the 4th part (new sunspot) again a word for word c&p from spaceweather.com for july 6th
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

thats all they do
report after report after effing report
all the solar reports anyone reads on their site, you HAVE ALREADY read elsewhere!
they see something solar happens, scan a quick google search and copy what looks good from others that bust their asses getting you all correct and fast info.
then they run to their site and PASTE it in all pretty to make a whole new report that they now try to call their own

now, if they stated that their reports were put together from reports found on the net, and maybe gave credited links back to the people they took the reports from, then it might be fine. i cant speak for those that wrote the reports and had them taken, some stuff writen is copyrited, i can only speak for myself

ya know how FAST i could put together a full report if i just ran around copying others hard work?!
but, then, it would not be my report now... would it?!

(not harshing on you HUGE, just venting some about this link, cause i knew they did this many many months back and have kept my mouth mostly shut about it. i couldnt do it anymore)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 17640965
Australia
07/07/2012 04:10 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1271552


Well-done summary! More informative than Spaceweather.com's error-filled blurbs and regurgitated NASA press releases. Kudos.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


ok ok ok i have to rant here for a moment about this site you just praised

-the 1st part of their report is mainly from solarham
(they do this a lot to solarham)

-the 2nd part is word for word c&p from SWPC
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

-the 3rd part (Sudden ionospheric disturbances) is word for word c&c from spaceweather.com for july 6
[link to spaceweather.com]

-the 4th part (new sunspot) again a word for word c&p from spaceweather.com for july 6th
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

thats all they do
report after report after effing report
all the solar reports anyone reads on their site, you HAVE ALREADY read elsewhere!
they see something solar happens, scan a quick google search and copy what looks good from others that bust their asses getting you all correct and fast info.
then they run to their site and PASTE it in all pretty to make a whole new report that they now try to call their own

now, if they stated that their reports were put together from reports found on the net, and maybe gave credited links back to the people they took the reports from, then it might be fine. i cant speak for those that wrote the reports and had them taken, some stuff writen is copyrited, i can only speak for myself

ya know how FAST i could put together a full report if i just ran around copying others hard work?!
but, then, it would not be my report now... would it?!

(not harshing on you HUGE, just venting some about this link, cause i knew they did this many many months back and have kept my mouth mostly shut about it. i couldnt do it anymore)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


clappa
Well said Nin, i to have noticed this and, as an academic, do not appreciate this sort of C&P....

Last Edited by nerdrage88sasr on 07/07/2012 04:11 AM
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
dettro99

User ID: 9732769
United States
07/07/2012 04:41 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
another M flare M1.0
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 19275376
United States
07/07/2012 05:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NASA predicts CME to be a clear miss;

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

The M 1 flare at 08:30ish was from the new region 15__-

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 19275376
United States
07/07/2012 05:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1271552


Well-done summary! More informative than Spaceweather.com's error-filled blurbs and regurgitated NASA press releases. Kudos.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


ok ok ok i have to rant here for a moment about this site you just praised

-the 1st part of their report is mainly from solarham
(they do this a lot to solarham)

-the 2nd part is word for word c&p from SWPC
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

-the 3rd part (Sudden ionospheric disturbances) is word for word c&c from spaceweather.com for july 6
[link to spaceweather.com]

-the 4th part (new sunspot) again a word for word c&p from spaceweather.com for july 6th
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

thats all they do
report after report after effing report
all the solar reports anyone reads on their site, you HAVE ALREADY read elsewhere!
they see something solar happens, scan a quick google search and copy what looks good from others that bust their asses getting you all correct and fast info.
then they run to their site and PASTE it in all pretty to make a whole new report that they now try to call their own

now, if they stated that their reports were put together from reports found on the net, and maybe gave credited links back to the people they took the reports from, then it might be fine. i cant speak for those that wrote the reports and had them taken, some stuff writen is copyrited, i can only speak for myself

ya know how FAST i could put together a full report if i just ran around copying others hard work?!
but, then, it would not be my report now... would it?!

(not harshing on you HUGE, just venting some about this link, cause i knew they did this many many months back and have kept my mouth mostly shut about it. i couldnt do it anymore)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


NINz, thanks for the tip-off, I wasn't aware of that. But shame on me, I should've recognized the blurb from Spaceweather which I read more than once. Now I feel duped again,LOL. I very much enjoyed your rant.

If they plagiarize other writers without attribution and//or permission they're in violation of the law. That's why we quote snippets and give links or references to the original source. They should be shunned and driven from the web until they clean up their act. Selah.

linksucksanontool
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19248775
United States
07/07/2012 07:12 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well, I don't think this was posted before, but Space Weather finally has their A>20 watch in force until midnight the 9th UTC .

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 495
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 05 2129 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 20 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G1 (Minor) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Jul 08
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

... and an S1 storm warning until 10 PM EST this evening.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 359
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 07 0255 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 07 0255 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 08 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Whenever they put these warnings up, especially the 48 hour ones, I'm pretty sure they are low balling what they are actually anticipating, but we'll have to wait and see...

However, Nin you may get to see some aurora !!!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19248775
United States
07/07/2012 07:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A quick M2.6 from 1515 [link to lasp.colorado.edu]

And protons are up [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19252433
Germany
07/07/2012 07:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NASA predicts CME to be a clear miss;

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

The M 1 flare at 08:30ish was from the new region 15__-

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


and the latest M 2.6

from Region 1515 again :)
:m2.6gifsamjul7:
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]


a last hi
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19248775
United States
07/07/2012 07:27 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Enlil is showing a direct hit from both CMEs starting at midnight tonight EST

[link to www.solarham.net]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19248775
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07/07/2012 07:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Great minds and all that .... Good Morning/Afternoon IWTB !!! :coffee:
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19252433
Germany
07/07/2012 07:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Great minds and all that .... Good Morning/Afternoon IWTB !!! :coffee:
 Quoting: TS66


yum yum thats looks tasty :)

Yep nearly 2pm here and i need one nowcoffeecup

Nice updates!
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 17640965
Australia
07/07/2012 08:14 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
morning/evening all
Going vertical
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Peace

nope...peaked already

Last Edited by nerdrage88sasr on 07/07/2012 08:16 AM
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19141775
Netherlands
07/07/2012 08:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The protons flux is very high
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 11438554
Netherlands
07/07/2012 08:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The protons flux is very high
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19141775


Yep due to the X class flare I presume
Solar Guardian

User ID: 19271642
Malaysia
07/07/2012 08:57 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The protons flux is very high
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19141775


Yep due to the X class flare I presume
 Quoting: FalloutGuy


Better high than low..banana2
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19141775
Netherlands
07/07/2012 08:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Protons not goes up & stay calm for M class but for x yes?
scratching
The last time it climb (17June) only the red >10 MeV go up
Anonymous Coward
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Netherlands
07/07/2012 09:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Protons not goes up & stay calm for M class but for x yes?
scratching
The last time it climb (17June) only the red >10 MeV go up
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19141775


The proton levels can rise due to an M class, look at this website:

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Hopefully it will provide you with more insight.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19141775
Netherlands
07/07/2012 09:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thx Fallout ! But the 17 June haven't X or M class. This event is more bigher
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19248775
United States
07/07/2012 09:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thx Fallout ! But the 17 June haven't X or M class. This event is more bigher
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19141775


I don't believe anyone figured out the proton spikes for sure back on the 17th.

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