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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 19275376
United States
07/07/2012 07:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Expected CME Update:
this is my unofficial view
this because we have had so much activity with flares and CMEs that we would have to factor in Quantum entanglement.
We have talked about this in extent in the past here.
It is not just about the earth direction and size of a given CME, But there is a LOT of physics that plays into all this as well! Because of this, i do not have enough time to research into all the data and calculations before the arrival of the following CMEs.
So here we go :)

the ENLIL model is showing a hit from 2 CMEs starting around 00:30 UTC July 8th
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
right now, it is 21:07 UTC
That would make the shortest ETA for the 1st hit to be somewhere in around 3-4 hours (8-9 pm EST)
these CMEs would be 1 from July 4th
the 1st one occurring @ 01:24 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
the 2nd one occurring @ 23:54 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Then we have the CME associated with the early July 7th X flare
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
We will see at least a glancing blow from this CME around late July 8th, into July 9th
we have the "Expected Events" list updated on the solar blog (on the right hand side)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Also lets note that there was a lot of CMEs between July 4th and today, July 7th, that could have been caught up at least partialy in a magnetic connection between earth and the sun. thus we could see some mass from these CMEs being caught up with the earth directed CME's and giving a combined hit. i would say we can expect at lease a Kp5 storm starting later tonight, that has the potential of reaching as high as a Kp8 at times, with the geomagnetic conditions being unsettled to Storm conditions over the period of the next 60hrs

With the ionospheric conditions being what they have been from the rash of M flares we have had over a 7 day period (33 M flares and 1 X flare as of the time of this post)combined with the heat wave we have had in North America this past week, i would caution as to the possibility of strong, strange storms for the period that the CMEs are expected to hit/arrive.

If i missed anything, please feel free to chim in and add your data so that we may have a complete run down of what to expect and when :)

Edit: I went ahead and put this into a Solar Alerts blog post so that it would easier to share for those who wish to do so :)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I hate to second-guess you, SunQueen, worshipsun, but I was watching these events unfold almost minute by minute and I did post the info as it became available. You did request some input, so here's my breakdown....

The first Earth-directed CME was launched late on July 3rd from a C9.3 flare from 1513. Note the time-stamp on this STEREO A image-
:E-D CME#1:

The second Earth-directed CME was launch also from 1513, an M1.8 which peaked at 16:39 on July 4th. This came amidst a flurry of CMEs from 1515 (all directed south) and a bright CME from a north pole filament eruption. In this STEREO A image it's the center Earth-pointing one. Again, note the time-stamp.
:E-D CME#2:

I believe the first CME already hit us and caused a brief storm yesterday. It was predicted to arrive around 06:00 on the 7th, but showed early. The second, bigger one should be here shortly. Anyway, to my surprise, SIDC seems to back up my claims-

"Geomagnetic conditions were at active levels (K=4, Kp=5) between 21 and
24 UT on July 6th in response to the CME activity in the previous days.

The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field went down
to -10 nT while the solar wind speed jumped to 500 km/s. Currently, we
are experiencing quiet geomagnetic conditions but geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase later today or early tomorrow, when we expect
the arrival of the ICME associated to the M1.8 flare on July 4th
. A
glancing blow from the CME associated to the X-flare is also possible
around 12 UT on July 9th. We expect unsettled (K=3) to active (K=5)
geomagnetic conditions in the coming days."
[link to sidc.oma.be]

SEEDS movie of second E-D CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

SEEDS movie entire July 4th fireworks seen from SOHO:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Flare details of the M1.8:

[link to www.lmsal.com]

I agree with you on the X-flare CME (as does SIDC) and will post on that after another beer or two,hehe.beer2
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1540313
United States
07/07/2012 07:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Expected CME Update:
this is my unofficial view
this because we have had so much activity with flares and CMEs that we would have to factor in Quantum entanglement.
We have talked about this in extent in the past here.
It is not just about the earth direction and size of a given CME, But there is a LOT of physics that plays into all this as well! Because of this, i do not have enough time to research into all the data and calculations before the arrival of the following CMEs.
So here we go :)

the ENLIL model is showing a hit from 2 CMEs starting around 00:30 UTC July 8th
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
right now, it is 21:07 UTC
That would make the shortest ETA for the 1st hit to be somewhere in around 3-4 hours (8-9 pm EST)
these CMEs would be 1 from July 4th
the 1st one occurring @ 01:24 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
the 2nd one occurring @ 23:54 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Then we have the CME associated with the early July 7th X flare
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
We will see at least a glancing blow from this CME around late July 8th, into July 9th
we have the "Expected Events" list updated on the solar blog (on the right hand side)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Also lets note that there was a lot of CMEs between July 4th and today, July 7th, that could have been caught up at least partialy in a magnetic connection between earth and the sun. thus we could see some mass from these CMEs being caught up with the earth directed CME's and giving a combined hit. i would say we can expect at lease a Kp5 storm starting later tonight, that has the potential of reaching as high as a Kp8 at times, with the geomagnetic conditions being unsettled to Storm conditions over the period of the next 60hrs

With the ionospheric conditions being what they have been from the rash of M flares we have had over a 7 day period (33 M flares and 1 X flare as of the time of this post)combined with the heat wave we have had in North America this past week, i would caution as to the possibility of strong, strange storms for the period that the CMEs are expected to hit/arrive. Stay safe!

If i missed anything, please feel free to chim in and add your data so that we may have a complete run down of what to expect and when :)

Edit: I went ahead and put this into a Solar Alerts blog post so that it would easier to share for those who wish to do so :)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


You summed that all up very nicely! Thanks Nin.peace
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1540313
United States
07/07/2012 07:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Expected CME Update:
this is my unofficial view
this because we have had so much activity with flares and CMEs that we would have to factor in Quantum entanglement.
We have talked about this in extent in the past here.
It is not just about the earth direction and size of a given CME, But there is a LOT of physics that plays into all this as well! Because of this, i do not have enough time to research into all the data and calculations before the arrival of the following CMEs.
So here we go :)

the ENLIL model is showing a hit from 2 CMEs starting around 00:30 UTC July 8th
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
right now, it is 21:07 UTC
That would make the shortest ETA for the 1st hit to be somewhere in around 3-4 hours (8-9 pm EST)
these CMEs would be 1 from July 4th
the 1st one occurring @ 01:24 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
the 2nd one occurring @ 23:54 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Then we have the CME associated with the early July 7th X flare
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
We will see at least a glancing blow from this CME around late July 8th, into July 9th
we have the "Expected Events" list updated on the solar blog (on the right hand side)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Also lets note that there was a lot of CMEs between July 4th and today, July 7th, that could have been caught up at least partialy in a magnetic connection between earth and the sun. thus we could see some mass from these CMEs being caught up with the earth directed CME's and giving a combined hit. i would say we can expect at lease a Kp5 storm starting later tonight, that has the potential of reaching as high as a Kp8 at times, with the geomagnetic conditions being unsettled to Storm conditions over the period of the next 60hrs

With the ionospheric conditions being what they have been from the rash of M flares we have had over a 7 day period (33 M flares and 1 X flare as of the time of this post)combined with the heat wave we have had in North America this past week, i would caution as to the possibility of strong, strange storms for the period that the CMEs are expected to hit/arrive.

If i missed anything, please feel free to chim in and add your data so that we may have a complete run down of what to expect and when :)

Edit: I went ahead and put this into a Solar Alerts blog post so that it would easier to share for those who wish to do so :)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I hate to second-guess you, SunQueen, worshipsun, but I was watching these events unfold almost minute by minute and I did post the info as it became available. You did request some input, so here's my breakdown....

The first Earth-directed CME was launched late on July 3rd from a C9.3 flare from 1513. Note the time-stamp on this STEREO A image-
:E-D CME#1:

The second Earth-directed CME was launch also from 1513, an M1.8 which peaked at 16:39 on July 4th. This came amidst a flurry of CMEs from 1515 (all directed south) and a bright CME from a north pole filament eruption. In this STEREO A image it's the center Earth-pointing one. Again, note the time-stamp.
:E-D CME#2:

I believe the first CME already hit us and caused a brief storm yesterday. It was predicted to arrive around 06:00 on the 7th, but showed early. The second, bigger one should be here shortly. Anyway, to my surprise, SIDC seems to back up my claims-

"Geomagnetic conditions were at active levels (K=4, Kp=5) between 21 and
24 UT on July 6th in response to the CME activity in the previous days.

The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field went down
to -10 nT while the solar wind speed jumped to 500 km/s. Currently, we
are experiencing quiet geomagnetic conditions but geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase later today or early tomorrow, when we expect
the arrival of the ICME associated to the M1.8 flare on July 4th
. A
glancing blow from the CME associated to the X-flare is also possible
around 12 UT on July 9th. We expect unsettled (K=3) to active (K=5)
geomagnetic conditions in the coming days."
[link to sidc.oma.be]

SEEDS movie of second E-D CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

SEEDS movie entire July 4th fireworks seen from SOHO:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Flare details of the M1.8:

[link to www.lmsal.com]

I agree with you on the X-flare CME (as does SIDC) and will post on that after another beer or two,hehe.beer2
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I don't know how anyone could untangle the mess of the last 3-4 days, U R awesome for doing it, I did not even try.I am not awesomescratching.
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
07/07/2012 07:40 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Expected CME Update:
this is my unofficial view
this because we have had so much activity with flares and CMEs that we would have to factor in Quantum entanglement.
We have talked about this in extent in the past here.
It is not just about the earth direction and size of a given CME, But there is a LOT of physics that plays into all this as well! Because of this, i do not have enough time to research into all the data and calculations before the arrival of the following CMEs.
So here we go :)

the ENLIL model is showing a hit from 2 CMEs starting around 00:30 UTC July 8th
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
right now, it is 21:07 UTC
That would make the shortest ETA for the 1st hit to be somewhere in around 3-4 hours (8-9 pm EST)
these CMEs would be 1 from July 4th
the 1st one occurring @ 01:24 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
the 2nd one occurring @ 23:54 UTC July 4th
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Then we have the CME associated with the early July 7th X flare
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
We will see at least a glancing blow from this CME around late July 8th, into July 9th
we have the "Expected Events" list updated on the solar blog (on the right hand side)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Also lets note that there was a lot of CMEs between July 4th and today, July 7th, that could have been caught up at least partialy in a magnetic connection between earth and the sun. thus we could see some mass from these CMEs being caught up with the earth directed CME's and giving a combined hit. i would say we can expect at lease a Kp5 storm starting later tonight, that has the potential of reaching as high as a Kp8 at times, with the geomagnetic conditions being unsettled to Storm conditions over the period of the next 60hrs

With the ionospheric conditions being what they have been from the rash of M flares we have had over a 7 day period (33 M flares and 1 X flare as of the time of this post)combined with the heat wave we have had in North America this past week, i would caution as to the possibility of strong, strange storms for the period that the CMEs are expected to hit/arrive.

If i missed anything, please feel free to chim in and add your data so that we may have a complete run down of what to expect and when :)

Edit: I went ahead and put this into a Solar Alerts blog post so that it would easier to share for those who wish to do so :)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I hate to second-guess you, SunQueen, worshipsun, but I was watching these events unfold almost minute by minute and I did post the info as it became available. You did request some input, so here's my breakdown....

The first Earth-directed CME was launched late on July 3rd from a C9.3 flare from 1513. Note the time-stamp on this STEREO A image-
:E-D CME#1:

The second Earth-directed CME was launch also from 1513, an M1.8 which peaked at 16:39 on July 4th. This came amidst a flurry of CMEs from 1515 (all directed south) and a bright CME from a north pole filament eruption. In this STEREO A image it's the center Earth-pointing one. Again, note the time-stamp.
:E-D CME#2:

I believe the first CME already hit us and caused a brief storm yesterday. It was predicted to arrive around 06:00 on the 7th, but showed early. The second, bigger one should be here shortly. Anyway, to my surprise, SIDC seems to back up my claims-

"Geomagnetic conditions were at active levels (K=4, Kp=5) between 21 and
24 UT on July 6th in response to the CME activity in the previous days.

The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field went down
to -10 nT while the solar wind speed jumped to 500 km/s. Currently, we
are experiencing quiet geomagnetic conditions but geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase later today or early tomorrow, when we expect
the arrival of the ICME associated to the M1.8 flare on July 4th
. A
glancing blow from the CME associated to the X-flare is also possible
around 12 UT on July 9th. We expect unsettled (K=3) to active (K=5)
geomagnetic conditions in the coming days."
[link to sidc.oma.be]

SEEDS movie of second E-D CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

SEEDS movie entire July 4th fireworks seen from SOHO:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Flare details of the M1.8:

[link to www.lmsal.com]

I agree with you on the X-flare CME (as does SIDC) and will post on that after another beer or two,hehe.beer2
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


i changed the wording to "we see here" for the CME images on stereo, cause they did occurre earlier, your right
but i disagree about the 1st one already hitting
it just was not fast enough of an ejection to arrive earlier than the 06:00 predicted time. This 1st one could have very well been slowed by the mass of the 2nd one (as im suspecting). again physics play in here. and we have seen this happen many many times on here as we sat for sometimes hours upon hours waiting for the expected 1st of many CME's to arrive at the time they stated, just to see a big impact later with the arrival of 2 CME's one right after another.
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Parvati

User ID: 7521845
New Zealand
07/07/2012 07:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks to you all for this intelligent instructive thread.
Especially to the OP - NiNzrez!

If you go to ISWA

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

and click on All Cygnets

then on the number 16

you can pull up SWMF North-South Cut and animate it.

Title reads: SWMF Magnetosphere Y Cut - Mag Field

When this shows magnetic reconnections,
is this an indication of breaches in the earth's magnetic field.

Also can this chart be an indicator of breaches, cracks in earth's magnetic field?

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
Truth [Satya] indeed conquers! Not untruth, falsehood.
Untruth is all discord, out of harmony with the Real.
The Real is a spontaneous unfolding of the One.
- Mundaka Upanishad III.1.6
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 17640965
Australia
07/07/2012 08:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.n3kl.org]
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
07/07/2012 08:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Evening all : )

I missed alot of action,greatwoohoo.

Hope all are good all the samesun

Anyways,just thought I'd post this here for anyone who has'nt seen it yet.

[link to www.youtube.com]

The YT Channel that ^ came from is 'Suspicious0bservers' incase anyone did'nt know already : )

I recommend subbing if you want Daily,succinct updates on all things Geo-effective etc as well as(obviously)checking Daily [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.co.uk]

I'm going to do some data mining now - be back soon.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
07/07/2012 08:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chances of moderate to major solar flares increase

Sunspot Region 1515
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

Sunspot Region 1519
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
mtn_mang

User ID: 18527751
United States
07/07/2012 08:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
somethings a brewin'...
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 17640965
Australia
07/07/2012 08:13 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chances of moderate to major solar flares increase

Sunspot Region 1515
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

Sunspot Region 1519
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Yeah, the ' gigantor' (as a wise man named it), appears to be BDG already, yet i think, as it aint as flashy/showy as 1515, when it does go off, will go off with a BANG!
hiding
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Parvati

User ID: 7521845
New Zealand
07/07/2012 08:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This red is increasing now in this graphic.
Even near Antarctica.

Time: 2012-07-08 00:14 UTC

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Truth [Satya] indeed conquers! Not untruth, falsehood.
Untruth is all discord, out of harmony with the Real.
The Real is a spontaneous unfolding of the One.
- Mundaka Upanishad III.1.6
mtn_mang

User ID: 18527751
United States
07/07/2012 08:21 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chances of moderate to major solar flares increase

Sunspot Region 1515
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

Sunspot Region 1519
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


isn't it 1520, not 1519?
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
07/07/2012 08:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Amazing [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] check out the geometry of the different field components of the Sun..the Coronal Holes shape does resemble a Triangle as pointed out by IWTB or Hugh and the HSB appears as a Triquetra Symbol [link to en.wikipedia.org]

.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Parvati

User ID: 7521845
New Zealand
07/07/2012 08:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The large new Sunspot located in the southeast quadrant should be numbered 1520 later today.

[link to www.solarham.net]
Truth [Satya] indeed conquers! Not untruth, falsehood.
Untruth is all discord, out of harmony with the Real.
The Real is a spontaneous unfolding of the One.
- Mundaka Upanishad III.1.6
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 17640965
Australia
07/07/2012 08:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
07/07/2012 08:29 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chances of moderate to major solar flares increase

Sunspot Region 1515
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

Sunspot Region 1519
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


isn't it 1520, not 1519?
 Quoting: mtn_mang


its 1519 according to bradfords model
but the still un numbered region coming in behind it is the one thats causing this i believe
[link to www.solen.info]
that area will be numbered 1520
did they finally number it?

chances in the 1519/1520 region just increased!
67% and 69%

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 07/07/2012 08:32 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
07/07/2012 08:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
March 11th 2011 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Present [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Where are the Earthquake/Solar Correlators?

We now have the Protons and A20 making a match between the two Dates(almost).
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Parvati

User ID: 7521845
New Zealand
07/07/2012 08:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Amazing [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] check out the geometry of the different field components of the Sun..the Coronal Holes shape does resemble a Triangle as pointed out by IWTB or Hugh and the HSB appears as a Triquetra Symbol [link to en.wikipedia.org]

.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Are these weird wonky shapes an indication of the mysterious quadrupolar Sun?


Solar poles to become quadrupolar in May
The Yomiuri Shimbun

Magnetic field polarity at the solar poles will reverse and become quadrupolar in May, meaning positive fields will emerge in the North and South poles and negative fields will emerge on the equator, according to the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan and other institutes.

When a similar phenomenon occurred about 300 years ago, the Earth's average temperature fell slightly.

A research team led by Saku Tsuneta, a professor at the observatory, analyzed solar magnetic fields data using Hinode, an observational satellite, and confirmed that the polarity of the magnetic field at the North Pole began to reverse in July last year.

The researchers also found the magnetic field at the South Pole, which was expected to reverse along with the North Pole, maintained a positive polarity, ensuring the formation of a quadrupole magnetic field.

The cause behind the shifts in polar fields is not understood. However, it is known that the shifts coincide with the increase and decrease in the number of sunspots over an about 11-year cycle.

The current sunspot cycle has stretched for close to 13 years. A similar situation occurred in the 17th to 18th century, when the average temperature of the Northern Hemisphere decreased by 0.6 C. The research team believes the quadrupolar pattern also emerged at that time.

(Apr. 21, 2012)
[link to www.yomiuri.co.jp]
Truth [Satya] indeed conquers! Not untruth, falsehood.
Untruth is all discord, out of harmony with the Real.
The Real is a spontaneous unfolding of the One.
- Mundaka Upanishad III.1.6
mtn_mang

User ID: 18527751
United States
07/07/2012 08:31 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chances of moderate to major solar flares increase

Sunspot Region 1515
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

Sunspot Region 1519
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


isn't it 1520, not 1519?
 Quoting: mtn_mang


its 1519 according to bradfords model
but the still un numbered region coming in behind it is the one thats causing this i believe
[link to www.solen.info]
that area will be numbered 1520
did they finally number it?
 Quoting: NiNzrez


the big boy is numbered 1520 on solarham, thought that was the region Bradford has numbered as 04 on the model

edit: they have also upped the probs on 1520 to 67%M 69%X

Last Edited by mtn_mang on 07/07/2012 08:34 PM
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/07/2012 08:34 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chances of moderate to major solar flares increase

Sunspot Region 1515
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

Sunspot Region 1519
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


isn't it 1520, not 1519?
 Quoting: mtn_mang


its 1519 according to bradfords model
but the still un numbered region coming in behind it is the one thats causing this i believe
[link to www.solen.info]
that area will be numbered 1520
did they finally number it?
 Quoting: NiNzrez


the big boy is numbered 1520 on solarham, thought that was the region Bradford has numbered as 04 on the model
 Quoting: mtn_mang


hes just getting a jump start on the number sunspot game
it is still un numbered but should be numbered later today :)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
07/07/2012 08:34 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chances of moderate to major solar flares increase

Sunspot Region 1515
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

Sunspot Region 1519
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


isn't it 1520, not 1519?
 Quoting: mtn_mang


its 1519 according to bradfords model
but the still un numbered region coming in behind it is the one thats causing this i believe
[link to www.solen.info]
that area will be numbered 1520
did they finally number it?
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Heya NiNzmusic

I had read somewhere that the Region we are referring to as 1520 is the return of 1507(I think) - Though I can't remember where it is I read that,I think it was from an Australian Solar Alert Bulletin.

(Edit:may be completely incorrect)

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 07/07/2012 08:39 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Parvati

User ID: 7521845
New Zealand
07/07/2012 08:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This chart reached a new weirdness today.
Missing data?
July 8 noon NZ time.

[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
Truth [Satya] indeed conquers! Not untruth, falsehood.
Untruth is all discord, out of harmony with the Real.
The Real is a spontaneous unfolding of the One.
- Mundaka Upanishad III.1.6
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/07/2012 08:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
big shift in electrons and protons detected at ACE

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Spittin'Cesium

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07/07/2012 08:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Dr.Keith Strongs' Video(from the 5th?)has the Region Numbered as 1519:


[link to www.youtube.com]
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 17640965
Australia
07/07/2012 08:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
big shift in electrons and protons detected at ACE

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


BOHICA!
Peace
hiding2
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
07/07/2012 08:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We have a G1,S1 and R3 Alert from NOAA [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Parvati

User ID: 7521845
New Zealand
07/07/2012 08:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
And again this chart is beginning to look like it did yesterday.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The energy was so intense here in NZ.
Increasing now around noon July 8 here.
Amazing. Gets me high.
I can't imagine how it will feel once the CMEs go repeatedly X.
Seems to me the key is the breaches in earth's magnetic field.


Truth [Satya] indeed conquers! Not untruth, falsehood.
Untruth is all discord, out of harmony with the Real.
The Real is a spontaneous unfolding of the One.
- Mundaka Upanishad III.1.6
NiNzrez (OP)

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United States
07/07/2012 08:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chances of moderate to major solar flares increase

Sunspot Region 1515
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

Sunspot Region 1519
60% chance for M flare
63% chance for X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


isn't it 1520, not 1519?
 Quoting: mtn_mang


its 1519 according to bradfords model
but the still un numbered region coming in behind it is the one thats causing this i believe
[link to www.solen.info]
that area will be numbered 1520
did they finally number it?
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Heya NiNzmusic

I had read somewhere that the Region we are referring to as 1520 is the return of 1507(I think) - Though I can't remember where it is I read that,I think it was from an Australian Solar Alert Bulletin.

(Edit:may be completely incorrect)
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


i believe the big region that should be numbered 1520, and not 1519, is the return of 1504
we can compair todays sunspot regions

[link to www.solen.info] 26 days ago and see this
[link to www.solen.info]
here you can see it 27 days earlier
[link to www.solen.info]

this is what we saw from old sunspot 1504 on the last rotation
M1.9 Flare on 6/14/2012 @ 14:30 UTC - Sunspot 1504
- LDE lasting 7hrs
- CME produced- ETA: June 16, 2012
M1.2 Flare on 6/13/2012 @ 13:17 UTC - Sunspot 1504
- LDE lasting 2hrs
- CME produced- ETA: June 16. 2012
M1.3 Flare on 6/10/2012 @ 06:45 UTC - Sunspot 1504
M1.8 Flare on 6/09/2012 @ 16:53 UTC - Sunspot 1504
M1.9 Flare on 6/09/2012 @ 11:32 UTC - Sunspot 1504

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 07/07/2012 08:53 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Parvati

User ID: 7521845
New Zealand
07/07/2012 08:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
big shift in electrons and protons detected at ACE

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

 Quoting: NiNzrez


Total spike!
Thanks.
Truth [Satya] indeed conquers! Not untruth, falsehood.
Untruth is all discord, out of harmony with the Real.
The Real is a spontaneous unfolding of the One.
- Mundaka Upanishad III.1.6
Hugh M Eye

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07/07/2012 08:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Now it's "official"

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 190 Issued at 0030Z on 08 Jul 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 07 Jul
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1513 N16W78 221 0180 Hsx 04 02 Alpha
1515 S17W63 206 0780 Fki 16 43 Beta-Gamma
1517 N19W53 196 0020 Cro 02 03 Beta
1518 N10E24 119 0030 Cro 06 04 Beta
1519 S15E34 109 0070 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1520 S15E54 088 0510 Fhc 16 14 Beta-Gamma
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z Jul
Nmbr Location Lo
1514 S13W80 223
1516 N20W65 208
II. Regions Due to Return 08 Jul to 10 Jul
Nmbr Lat Lo
1510 S16 038

Weighing in at a respectable 510 millionths and rated as Beta-Gamma.

Latest HMI Intensitygram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

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