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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2012 06:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
"Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was high. At 12/1649Z, a long-duration
X1/2b flare was observed from Region 1520 (S16W09). The event was
visible in GONG H-alpha imagery as a bright ribbon flare that
erupted along the region?s long E/W oriented inversion line.

Associated with this event were Type II (1268 km/s) and Type IV
radio emissions along with an 800 sfu Tenflare. Limited satellite
imagery indicated a CME was associated with this event. STEREO
Behind COR2 imagery observed a CME lifting off the west limb, first
visible at 12/1710Z. Further analysis of this CME is ongoing.
During the past 24 hours, Region 1520 grew in both area and spot
count and maintained a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. Region 1521 (S21W21) also grew in area and spot
count and remained a beta-gamma magnetic classification.
New
Regions 1522 (N13W21) and 1523 (S27E31) emerged on the disk as
simple bi-polar spot groups.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class events for the next three days
(13 - 15 July).


VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/40/35
Minor storm 05/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/10/15
Minor storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/55/45 "

55% chance of a major-severe storm in high latitudes Saturday.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7546576


i was just going to ask if anyone else noticed the extreem growth of un numbered regions S1793 and to the west (right) of S1783?
[link to www.solen.info]

this occurred in the hours directly before todays X flare
and the growth continues now

you can look on SDO movie for today to see what im talking about
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I am guessing this is why they are giving 35% for another X.
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/12/2012 06:58 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


I believe we had a S4 storm last year which was a 7 or 8 year high. Unless we get another LDE sometime soon, I don't think we can beat it. Plenty of time left however!

Also, if 1515 stays alive over the next week and half, we may not have a stop to our wonderful sun show. Fingers crossed!
 Quoting: MARsSPEED


I think it was late last year and a few of the graphs on here [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] hit 9's. If I remember right it was Boulder and Est. Plant.
 Quoting: whiteangel


yup back then it hit Kp9 for a few there
if i remember right, it was with the super high solar activity we saw in Nov 2011
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Yes it was. I wasn't on here then but somewhere else!

It was November 3, 2011, it was AR1339, and it was X1.9 or X2.0. There were two X-class flares in 48 hours.
 Quoting: whiteangel


X1.9 Flare on 11/03/2011 @ 20:27 UTC - sunspot 1339
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
El Quisqueyano

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07/12/2012 07:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Nin. Do you know if the polarity of that CMe, from the X flare, will be pulling the Bz South?
shadasonic

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07/12/2012 07:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Nin. Do you know if the polarity of that CMe, from the X flare, will be pulling the Bz South?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Thats a good question Q, alot depends on the Bz
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Parvati

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07/12/2012 07:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nin we all know they read your thread !!! worship
 Quoting: TS66


heard it here 1st!!!! :)
the ego part of me likes to think they do
but the humble part in me says we just agree
:)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I like this.
Thanks, NiNzrez.
Awesome reporting and amazing day!

:eme3:
Truth [Satya] indeed conquers! Not untruth, falsehood.
Untruth is all discord, out of harmony with the Real.
The Real is a spontaneous unfolding of the One.
- Mundaka Upanishad III.1.6
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2012 07:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Double proton storm nicely seen in the latest Herschel radiation monitor data:
[link to proteus.space.noa.gr]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


What do the numbers on the bottom represent (186-188-190 etc.) ???
 Quoting: TS66


Well, this are the counts in days


Here you have some more info about the herschel plots
[link to herschel.esac.esa.int]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Wow IWTB ..... I may have to try again tomorrow to take this all in !!! Way above my learning curve so far !!

Still pretty hot on the poles:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
mtn_mang

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07/12/2012 07:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
whats up with SOHO? can't find anything from lasco from 1500-2200
whiteangel

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07/12/2012 07:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Nin. Do you know if the polarity of that CMe, from the X flare, will be pulling the Bz South?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


You might want to peek at this El Q as it also related to quakes.

[link to www.youtube.com]
WAXmas7WAXmas23WAXmas9WAXmas18
WAXmas2WAmerryWAXmas2
Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.
Luke 2:14
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19605629
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07/12/2012 07:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Double proton storm nicely seen in the latest Herschel radiation monitor data:
[link to proteus.space.noa.gr]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


What do the numbers on the bottom represent (186-188-190 etc.) ???
 Quoting: TS66


Well, this are the counts in days


Here you have some more info about the herschel plots
[link to herschel.esac.esa.int]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Wow IWTB ..... I may have to try again tomorrow to take this all in !!! Way above my learning curve so far !!

Still pretty hot on the poles:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


hiya ts66hf


have saved it also^^

Ah thanks for this!


Have a look...^^
Thread: Help with all this solar flare talk
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 13971567
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07/12/2012 07:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


What do the numbers on the bottom represent (186-188-190 etc.) ???
 Quoting: TS66


Well, this are the counts in days


Here you have some more info about the herschel plots
[link to herschel.esac.esa.int]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Wow IWTB ..... I may have to try again tomorrow to take this all in !!! Way above my learning curve so far !!

Still pretty hot on the poles:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


hiya ts66hf


have saved it also^^

Ah thanks for this!


Have a look...^^
Thread: Help with all this solar flare talk
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


^^ EE gads, sounds like a nightmare !!! You're a saint IWTB !!
Parvati

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07/12/2012 07:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Still pretty hot on the poles:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


This is the one that 'gets' me.
I live in NZ and I seem to feel these "red days" intensely.
This is the most intense I have ever observed.
The top 4 bars are all the way across at 35.
And big red under little NZ.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]



:eme3:
Truth [Satya] indeed conquers! Not untruth, falsehood.
Untruth is all discord, out of harmony with the Real.
The Real is a spontaneous unfolding of the One.
- Mundaka Upanishad III.1.6
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2012 07:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Still pretty hot on the poles:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


This is the one that 'gets' me.
I live in NZ and I seem to feel these "red days" intensely.
This is the most intense I have ever observed.
The top 4 bars are all the way across at 35.
And big red under little NZ.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]



:eme3:
 Quoting: Parvati


I'm not quite sure exactly where you are located , but you may want to keep a heads up for the Aurora Australis aka, Southern lights !!! [link to www.solarham.net]

hf

Doesn't look like they'll be hitting NY State, at least tonight....
RTS REDUX

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07/12/2012 07:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
whats up with SOHO? can't find anything from lasco from 1500-2200
 Quoting: mtn_mang


[...]Joe Kunches of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder said
one of the NASA satellites tasked with watching for solar weather,
SOHO, was “on maneuvers” when the flare launched.
That will make the task of predicting the course of any subsequent CME more difficult.

[link to www.liveleak.com]

there were also frames missing on Stereo A following the initial eruption, and a couple of frames missing after this was taken

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by RTS REDUX on 07/12/2012 07:52 PM
"If one understands that socialism is not a share-the-wealth programme, but is in reality a method to consolidate and control the wealth, then the seeming paradox of super-rich men promoting socialism becomes no paradox at all. Instead, it becomes logical, even the perfect tool of power-seeking megalomaniacs.

Communism or more accurately, socialism, is not a movement of the downtrodden masses, but of the economic elite."

Gary Allen

NONE DARE CALL IT CONSPIRACY
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hitler was a leftist

[link to constitutionalistnc.tripod.com]

siggif6
[link to fineartamerica.com]
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
ThaSaltineCracka

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07/12/2012 07:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
does this have to do with helioseismology at all, they may be connected?
ThaSaltineCracka
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2012 07:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looking at the projected time of impact (from [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] ) it's going to impact the Far East the most.

It will be around 12pm in Time Zone GMT +7, which is Beijing, Singapore, and Ho Chi Minh. Every one that's within a few hours either way of that will be affected. Australia/NZ, Japan, Iran, the Eastern parts of Russia.

Those will be the places seeing the most of the sun at the time, I wonder just how bad things will get.
mtn_mang

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07/12/2012 07:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
whats up with SOHO? can't find anything from lasco from 1500-2200
 Quoting: mtn_mang


[...]Joe Kunches of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder said
one of the NASA satellites tasked with watching for solar weather,
SOHO, was “on maneuvers” when the flare launched.
That will make the task of predicting the course of any subsequent CME more difficult.

[link to www.liveleak.com]

there were also a couple of frames missing on Stereo A following the initial eruption.

it did manage to catch this image though

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


how convenient...a maneuver at a critical moment.
shadasonic

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07/12/2012 07:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Still pretty hot on the poles:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


This is the one that 'gets' me.
I live in NZ and I seem to feel these "red days" intensely.
This is the most intense I have ever observed.
The top 4 bars are all the way across at 35.
And big red under little NZ.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]



:eme3:
 Quoting: Parvati


I've seen it all the way across at 17 Mhz, which might have been last november, my minds horrible about as bad as my record keeping. Anything at the level its at today gives me crazy physical symptoms. You being closer to the poles where the saturation is usually higher, can feel it intensely! I Enjoy your posts Parvati!

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 07/12/2012 07:51 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Spittin'Cesium

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07/12/2012 07:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ooorrgghhh!?

My Head is killing : /

Must be due to [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

And [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I missed the beginning of the X but the effects are for sure persistant,my skull is banging,hard..OouchhH.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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07/12/2012 07:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Luv by the waymusic
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
shadasonic

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07/12/2012 07:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
whats up with SOHO? can't find anything from lasco from 1500-2200
 Quoting: mtn_mang


[...]Joe Kunches of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder said
one of the NASA satellites tasked with watching for solar weather,
SOHO, was “on maneuvers” when the flare launched.
That will make the task of predicting the course of any subsequent CME more difficult.

[link to www.liveleak.com]

there were also frames missing on Stereo A following the initial eruption, and a couple of frames missing after this was taken

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


What the hell is SOHO doing 'maneuvering when we've got a SS like this. Wonder whats so important that they pulled it off 1520, because it was in use for 1515? Things that make you go Hmmmmm!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Spittin'Cesium

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07/12/2012 07:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ooorrgghhh!?

My Head is killing : /

Must be due to [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

And [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I missed the beginning of the X but the effects are for sure persistant,my skull is banging,hard..OouchhH.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I think the fact I just had to read through around 12 Pages of this thread since I jumped out the Solar Window a couple Days back may be contributing : )

The attention being garnered by this thread is becoming exponential!

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 07/12/2012 08:03 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
RTS REDUX

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07/12/2012 07:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
whats up with SOHO? can't find anything from lasco from 1500-2200
 Quoting: mtn_mang


[...]Joe Kunches of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder said
one of the NASA satellites tasked with watching for solar weather,
SOHO, was “on maneuvers” when the flare launched.
That will make the task of predicting the course of any subsequent CME more difficult.

[link to www.liveleak.com]

there were also a couple of frames missing on Stereo A following the initial eruption.

it did manage to catch this image though

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


how convenient...a maneuver at a critical moment.
 Quoting: mtn_mang


I edited my post after you quoted me..Stereo A was down at the same time as Lasco..the image I posted was the first image when it came back online and there was 1 missing frame after that.

the only good look at the CME besides the one frame from Stereo A is Stereo B.

Last Edited by RTS REDUX on 07/12/2012 08:27 PM
"If one understands that socialism is not a share-the-wealth programme, but is in reality a method to consolidate and control the wealth, then the seeming paradox of super-rich men promoting socialism becomes no paradox at all. Instead, it becomes logical, even the perfect tool of power-seeking megalomaniacs.

Communism or more accurately, socialism, is not a movement of the downtrodden masses, but of the economic elite."

Gary Allen

NONE DARE CALL IT CONSPIRACY
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hitler was a leftist

[link to constitutionalistnc.tripod.com]

siggif6
[link to fineartamerica.com]
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
shadasonic

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07/12/2012 07:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ooorrgghhh!?

My Head is killing : /

Must be due to [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

And [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I missed the beginning of the X but the effects are for sure persistant,my skull is banging,hard..OouchhH.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I know haven't been able to concentrate all day, head feels like the worst sinus infection ever, but whats awesome is it floats from the front to the back. Hands and feet are tingling also.

Weird thing is this started two days ago and still haven't figured it out, Mission invisible and I posted about it at the same time .

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 07/12/2012 07:58 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2012 07:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Luv by the waymusic
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


You're not wearing your aluminium helmet? 1doh1
ThaSaltineCracka

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07/12/2012 08:03 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So since the middle east will be affected the worst, their servers may go down. So, Solar flare + Middle east = higher gas prices???????
ThaSaltineCracka
El Quisqueyano

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07/12/2012 08:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Nin. Do you know if the polarity of that CMe, from the X flare, will be pulling the Bz South?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


You might want to peek at this El Q as it also related to quakes.

[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: whiteangel


X Flare with Long Duration CME and an alignment as we speak. Priceless.

Buckle up is all I have to say.

Namaste.
Spittin'Cesium

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07/12/2012 08:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ooorrgghhh!?

My Head is killing : /

Must be due to [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

And [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I missed the beginning of the X but the effects are for sure persistant,my skull is banging,hard..OouchhH.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I know haven't been able to concentrate all day, head feels like the worst sinus infection ever, but whats awesome is it floats from the front to the back. Hands and feet are tingling also.

Weird thing is this started two days ago and still haven't figured it out, Mission invisible and I posted about it at the same time .
 Quoting: shadasonic


This is how mine feels also Shada,paiiin!

Two Days ago we still had elevated Protons as well as the 2MeV Electrons.you may be Electro-Sensitive.

This will be the 4th Day in a row now(I think)that we have been swimming in Solar Radiation storms,although only S1,the duration of the events must have an modulating factor in the overall intensity on Earth Life?

Ouch!?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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07/12/2012 08:12 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Luv by the waymusic
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


You're not wearing your aluminium helmet? 1doh1
 Quoting: SpiderJones


Nooo Spidey J!

The Aluminium induces and amplifies the Waves!

Tinfoil hat plus Amalgam Fillings should mean one would be able to pick up not only FM Bands but also Digital Radio : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
shadasonic

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United States
07/12/2012 08:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Luv by the waymusic
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


You're not wearing your aluminium helmet? 1doh1
 Quoting: SpiderJones


Nooo Spidey J!

The Aluminium induces and amplifies the Waves!

Tinfoil hat plus Amalgam Fillings should mean one would be able to pick up not only FM Bands but also Digital Radio : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


We need more lead, everything going to hell since we quite using lead paint. I can hear my grandfather from the grave"We painted everything with lead and we didn't have any flare problems, no ones using lead these days." LOL
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
whiteangel

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07/12/2012 08:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
You guys are nuts!!
rofl
WAXmas7WAXmas23WAXmas9WAXmas18
WAXmas2WAmerryWAXmas2
Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.
Luke 2:14

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