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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Spittin'Cesium

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07/12/2012 08:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Seriously chunky Plasma Field coming from 1513 over the limb at 2 on the dial [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Also,a nice(apparent)Triangle in the North and chunk of Filament tearing away [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

In that ^ same image the very bright and quite angular Arcs within the 1520 Region/s are looking pretty messy.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Chunky?? Is this a technical term?
 Quoting: SpiderJones


No : )

But it is,chunky that is.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 07/12/2012 08:58 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2012 09:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Seriously chunky Plasma Field coming from 1513 over the limb at 2 on the dial [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Also,a nice(apparent)Triangle in the North and chunk of Filament tearing away [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

In that ^ same image the very bright and quite angular Arcs within the 1520 Region/s are looking pretty messy.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Chunky?? Is this a technical term?
 Quoting: SpiderJones


No : )

But it is,chunky that is.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


chunkyplasmalicious!
RTS REDUX

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07/12/2012 09:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I just saw a SDO movie they showed on NBC in 304 and it looked like all of the ejecta came from an area above 1520

you can't see it in this video that SDO just posted



[link to www.youtube.com]
Parvati

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07/12/2012 09:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Luv by the waymusic
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium

You're not wearing your aluminium helmet? 1doh1
 Quoting: SpiderJones

Nooo Spidey J!
The Aluminium induces and amplifies the Waves!
Tinfoil hat plus Amalgam Fillings should mean one would be able to pick up not only FM Bands but also Digital Radio : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Gold is best.
The ancients wore gold helmets, beaten-thin gold arm bands, huge gold necklaces and breast plates that covered the heart for a reason.

[link to 4.bp.blogspot.com]

[link to www.janusmuseum.org]

[link to i.ytimg.com]

[link to www.egyptgiftshop.com]

:Inan:
Truth [Satya] indeed conquers! Not untruth, falsehood.
Untruth is all discord, out of harmony with the Real.
The Real is a spontaneous unfolding of the One.
- Mundaka Upanishad III.1.6
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2012 09:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I just saw a SDO movie they showed on NBC in 304 and it looked like all of the ejecta came from an area above 1520

you can't see it in this video that SDO just posted



[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


This is great vid. thanks for posting!
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2012 09:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Luv by the waymusic
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium

You're not wearing your aluminium helmet? 1doh1
 Quoting: SpiderJones

Nooo Spidey J!
The Aluminium induces and amplifies the Waves!
Tinfoil hat plus Amalgam Fillings should mean one would be able to pick up not only FM Bands but also Digital Radio : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Gold is best.
The ancients wore gold helmets, beaten-thin gold arm bands, huge gold necklaces and breast plates that covered the heart for a reason.

[link to 4.bp.blogspot.com]

[link to www.janusmuseum.org]

[link to i.ytimg.com]

[link to www.egyptgiftshop.com]

:Inan:
 Quoting: Parvati


I have a gold helmet somewhere... maybe in the garage. I will find it and start wearing it!
Parvati

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07/12/2012 09:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Still pretty hot on the poles:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66

This is the one that 'gets' me.
I live in NZ and I seem to feel these "red days" intensely.
This is the most intense I have ever observed.
The top 4 bars are all the way across at 35.
And big red under little NZ.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Parvati


I've seen it all the way across at 17 Mhz, which might have been last november, my minds horrible about as bad as my record keeping. Anything at the level its at today gives me crazy physical symptoms. You being closer to the poles where the saturation is usually higher, can feel it intensely! I Enjoy your posts Parvati!
 Quoting: shadasonic


Thank you for this, shadasonic!
Wow!
ALL the way across.
I appreciate the information and the kind compliment.

:harte:
Truth [Satya] indeed conquers! Not untruth, falsehood.
Untruth is all discord, out of harmony with the Real.
The Real is a spontaneous unfolding of the One.
- Mundaka Upanishad III.1.6
Parvati

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07/12/2012 09:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I have a gold helmet somewhere... maybe in the garage. I will find it and start wearing it!
 Quoting: SpiderJones

Excellent!

hf
:Inan:
Truth [Satya] indeed conquers! Not untruth, falsehood.
Untruth is all discord, out of harmony with the Real.
The Real is a spontaneous unfolding of the One.
- Mundaka Upanishad III.1.6
Spittin'Cesium

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07/12/2012 09:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I just saw a new line of Plasma form on EVE [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Just to the Right hand side of the Regions but going Northward..I'd watch that,could be a Bi-Polar connection has been loaded and primed.

We shall see : )

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 07/12/2012 09:24 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Starry eyes

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07/12/2012 09:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm home from work. It looks like it was a pretty eventful day I see.

:)
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
shadasonic

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07/12/2012 09:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I just saw a new line of Plasma form on EVE [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Just to the Right hand side of the Regions but going Northward..I'd watch that,could be a Bi-Polar connection has been loaded and primed.

We shall see : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I get a very strong feeling its reloading
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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07/12/2012 09:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm home from work. It looks like it was a pretty eventful day I see.

:)
 Quoting: Starry eyes


Hi SE, maybe it will pick up for you now your off!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Spittin'Cesium

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07/12/2012 09:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I just saw a new line of Plasma form on EVE [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Just to the Right hand side of the Regions but going Northward..I'd watch that,could be a Bi-Polar connection has been loaded and primed.

We shall see : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I get a very strong feeling its reloading
 Quoting: shadasonic


The line I mentioned is clearly visable here [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] on the top-right of the Region.

Check out the Filament Lift off in the North [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] !
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

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07/12/2012 09:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm home from work. It looks like it was a pretty eventful day I see.

:)
 Quoting: Starry eyes


Howdy, Starry eyes, u2efine- Me,too. and it took me 2 hours to go thru all the posts in the last 6 hours. Wow, this thread may reach 1000 pages by Monday morning!

After my prediction of a major flare event within 36-48 hours, I was ready today to re-name GIGANTOR the "Gentle Giant" and eat some crow, but NOOOOOOO!-1520 came through big time. After the flare I checked the magnetogram and very little had changed since it was in the B-range. This region seems ready to explode at a moment notice so stay alert. This region actually seems more typical of an active region than AR1515. I've never seen so many staccato, short-lived M-flares before, not to mention the deflected nature of the CMEs.

Now I have to go back and find out which posts to quote and comment on, hahaha.

Great job here by everyone!
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2012 09:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I get a strong feeling too...

I am excited about this first x-ray since I started watching, and another feeling too, loss for one...
Hugh M Eye

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07/12/2012 09:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


I was wondering, so this is pretty much a non-event.
 Quoting: whiteangel


It's midway on the scale : S, C, O, R, ER.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7546576


Do you have a link for the scale? TIA
 Quoting: whiteangel



 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7546576


Thank you, I thought the "O" was short for "OMG"!

alone
shadasonic

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07/12/2012 09:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm home from work. It looks like it was a pretty eventful day I see.

:)
 Quoting: Starry eyes


Howdy, Starry eyes, u2efine- Me,too. and it took me 2 hours to go thru all the posts in the last 6 hours. Wow, this thread may reach 1000 pages by Monday morning!

After my prediction of a major flare event within 36-48 hours, I was ready today to re-name GIGANTOR the "Gentle Giant" and eat some crow, but NOOOOOOO!-1520 came through big time. After the flare I checked the magnetogram and very little had changed since it was in the B-range. This region seems ready to explode at a moment notice so stay alert. This region actually seems more typical of an active region than AR1515. I've never seen so many staccato, short-lived M-flares before, not to mention the deflected nature of the CMEs.

Now I have to go back and find out which posts to quote and comment on, hahaha.

Great job here by everyone!
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Good to have you here always feels like somethings missing without your posts!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
RTS REDUX

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I just saw a SDO movie they showed on NBC in 304 and it looked like all of the ejecta came from an area above 1520

you can't see it in this video that SDO just posted



[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


This is great vid. thanks for posting!
 Quoting: SpiderJones


yw..the movie NBC played looked like a SDO image but was offset which makes me wonder if they have a secret sun scope mounted on Hubble or Spitzer. In that movie the filament looked like a whip as long as about half the diameter of the sun. It was well N of 1520. I just tried to find it on Jhelioviewer in about 1/2 dozen different filters but haven't been able to find it yet. If I do find something I'll make a video or post a screenshot.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I just saw a new line of Plasma form on EVE [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Just to the Right hand side of the Regions but going Northward..I'd watch that,could be a Bi-Polar connection has been loaded and primed.

We shall see : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Yes, you are right, looks like it is ripening.
Starry eyes

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07/12/2012 10:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm home from work. It looks like it was a pretty eventful day I see.

:)
 Quoting: Starry eyes


Hi SE, maybe it will pick up for you now your off!
 Quoting: shadasonic


Perhaps, Perhaps!
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2012 10:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm home from work. It looks like it was a pretty eventful day I see.

:)
 Quoting: Starry eyes


and i will sleep now^^hf

Good night suncrew, wish you a good hunt and please dont post that much haha
shadasonic

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07/12/2012 10:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I just saw a new line of Plasma form on EVE [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Just to the Right hand side of the Regions but going Northward..I'd watch that,could be a Bi-Polar connection has been loaded and primed.

We shall see : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I get a very strong feeling its reloading
 Quoting: shadasonic


The line I mentioned is clearly visable here [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] on the top-right of the Region.

Check out the Filament Lift off in the North [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] !
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


The filament to the north looks like a skeleton sitting on a rock
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Starry eyes

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm home from work. It looks like it was a pretty eventful day I see.

:)
 Quoting: Starry eyes


Howdy, Starry eyes, u2efine- Me,too. and it took me 2 hours to go thru all the posts in the last 6 hours. Wow, this thread may reach 1000 pages by Monday morning!

After my prediction of a major flare event within 36-48 hours, I was ready today to re-name GIGANTOR the "Gentle Giant" and eat some crow, but NOOOOOOO!-1520 came through big time. After the flare I checked the magnetogram and very little had changed since it was in the B-range. This region seems ready to explode at a moment notice so stay alert. This region actually seems more typical of an active region than AR1515. I've never seen so many staccato, short-lived M-flares before, not to mention the deflected nature of the CMEs.

Now I have to go back and find out which posts to quote and comment on, hahaha.

Great job here by everyone!
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


It certainly has picked up, Hugh :)

With today's performance, the 1520 region seems promising!

I'll hang around for a while.

hf
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
Hugh M Eye

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07/12/2012 10:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Today's CME forecast to hit us Sat., between 3 am & 5 pm EDT. Moderate to severe activity (Kp 6-8) possible.

Here's the ISWA Model:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]




New ISWA Cygnet streamer:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]



Electrons Ions:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Great work as usual, IWTB! That second link shows all of the varios cone models and the "Dynamic Pressure" and "Density" puts Earth in the black (strongest) part of the storm. Even in the best-case-scenario we'll receive quite a jolt.

Event Issue Date: 2012-07-12 13:37:29.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-07-14 10:20:38.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 8 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.6 Re
tomasgod1

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07/12/2012 10:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Now we have something to talk about, haha!

This X1.4 Flare from 1520 peaked around 16:49 July 12, 2012 UTC. The CME first shows up ejecting from around the occulting disk on Stereo A Cor2 at 16:54:50, while the flare is still peaking. This was a very fast plane of sky ejection speed. This is a large CME with a lot of material being pushed out from the center or the disk in an Earthward direction, this time. The CMEs thick cloud is very discernable on both Stereo A and B Cor2 images below...

x1.4corb

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

x1.4cora

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

This CME is moving so quickly that it was already seen in the Stereo B HI1 images starting at 23:18UT (that is Venus about to get blasted) below..

x1.4hi1b

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

It looks like CCMC NASA ISWA currently is forcasting the arrival for around 2012 07 14 for approx 18:00 UTC or 2:00pm Sat afternoon, and WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction from NOAA/SWPC is predicting the arrival for approx 2012 07 14 20:00 UTC.

I would not be at all suprised if it arrived within 30-36 hrs from the ejection, putting it's arrival here Fri night into Sat morning between 2012 07 13 22:00 - 2012 07 14 04:00 UTC.
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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tomasgod1

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07/12/2012 10:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Today's CME forecast to hit us Sat., between 3 am & 5 pm EDT. Moderate to severe activity (Kp 6-8) possible.

Here's the ISWA Model:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]




New ISWA Cygnet streamer:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]



Electrons Ions:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Great work as usual, IWTB! That second link shows all of the varios cone models and the "Dynamic Pressure" and "Density" puts Earth in the black (strongest) part of the storm. Even in the best-case-scenario we'll receive quite a jolt.

Event Issue Date: 2012-07-12 13:37:29.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-07-14 10:20:38.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 8 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.6 Re
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Glad to see ISWA/CCMC shortning those arrival times up. NOAA still going with 1:00 pm Eastern.

"The R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout today at 12:49 EDT (1649 UTC) was accompanied by an earth-directed CME. Hampered by limited observations of the event, SWPC forecasters are now anticipating the passage of the CME around 1:00 a.m. EDT, Saturday, July 14."
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Their cone model,showing the arrival at 20:00UTC.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

chuckle

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 07/12/2012 10:36 PM
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/12/2012 10:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Nin. Do you know if the polarity of that CMe, from the X flare, will be pulling the Bz South?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


i would say it is very hard to tell and we will have to wait and see
this becuase the sunspot the CME came from, 1520, had many intermixing polarities some + and some -
all woven together
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/12/2012 10:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nin we all know they read your thread !!! worship
 Quoting: TS66


heard it here 1st!!!! :)
the ego part of me likes to think they do
but the humble part in me says we just agree
:)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I like this.
Thanks, NiNzrez.
Awesome reporting and amazing day!

:eme3:
 Quoting: Parvati


hf
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
tomasgod1

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07/12/2012 10:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Nin. Do you know if the polarity of that CMe, from the X flare, will be pulling the Bz South?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


i would say it is very hard to tell and we will have to wait and see
this becuase the sunspot the CME came from, 1520, had many intermixing polarities some + and some -
all woven together
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Exactly my thoughts on this one as well.

hi NiN
hf
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/12/2012 10:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ooorrgghhh!?

My Head is killing : /

Must be due to [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

And [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I missed the beginning of the X but the effects are for sure persistant,my skull is banging,hard..OouchhH.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


mine was too then i took a shower and feel brand new

a great thing to do when were having this solar activity is take off your shoes and go stand/walk in the grass or sand or dirt
get grounded! doing this will help reduce the negative electrons that sometimes build up in the human body from the bombardment of solar particles/radaition etc
[link to www.naturalbodyhealing.com]
[link to health.howstuffworks.com]

if you still feel yukky after that, a shower will do the job. it does the same thing as the grounding with earth as i said above and a double dose of antioxidants durring this solar weather will also help :)

when you can, do all 3
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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