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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 19372178
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07/12/2012 10:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Today's CME forecast to hit us Sat., between 3 am & 5 pm EDT. Moderate to severe activity (Kp 6-8) possible.

Here's the ISWA Model:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]




New ISWA Cygnet streamer:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]



Electrons Ions:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Great work as usual, IWTB! That second link shows all of the varios cone models and the "Dynamic Pressure" and "Density" puts Earth in the black (strongest) part of the storm. Even in the best-case-scenario we'll receive quite a jolt.

Event Issue Date: 2012-07-12 13:37:29.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-07-14 10:20:38.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 8 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.6 Re
tomasgod1

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07/12/2012 10:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Now we have something to talk about, haha!

This X1.4 Flare from 1520 peaked around 16:49 July 12, 2012 UTC. The CME first shows up ejecting from around the occulting disk on Stereo A Cor2 at 16:54:50, while the flare is still peaking. This was a very fast plane of sky ejection speed. This is a large CME with a lot of material being pushed out from the center or the disk in an Earthward direction, this time. The CMEs thick cloud is very discernable on both Stereo A and B Cor2 images below...

x1.4corb

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

x1.4cora

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

This CME is moving so quickly that it was already seen in the Stereo B HI1 images starting at 23:18UT (that is Venus about to get blasted) below..

x1.4hi1b

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

It looks like CCMC NASA ISWA currently is forcasting the arrival for around 2012 07 14 for approx 18:00 UTC or 2:00pm Sat afternoon, and WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction from NOAA/SWPC is predicting the arrival for approx 2012 07 14 20:00 UTC.

I would not be at all suprised if it arrived within 30-36 hrs from the ejection, putting it's arrival here Fri night into Sat morning between 2012 07 13 22:00 - 2012 07 14 04:00 UTC.
_______

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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
tomasgod1

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07/12/2012 10:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Today's CME forecast to hit us Sat., between 3 am & 5 pm EDT. Moderate to severe activity (Kp 6-8) possible.

Here's the ISWA Model:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]




New ISWA Cygnet streamer:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]



Electrons Ions:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Great work as usual, IWTB! That second link shows all of the varios cone models and the "Dynamic Pressure" and "Density" puts Earth in the black (strongest) part of the storm. Even in the best-case-scenario we'll receive quite a jolt.

Event Issue Date: 2012-07-12 13:37:29.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-07-14 10:20:38.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 8 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.6 Re
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Glad to see ISWA/CCMC shortning those arrival times up. NOAA still going with 1:00 pm Eastern.

"The R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout today at 12:49 EDT (1649 UTC) was accompanied by an earth-directed CME. Hampered by limited observations of the event, SWPC forecasters are now anticipating the passage of the CME around 1:00 a.m. EDT, Saturday, July 14."
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Their cone model,showing the arrival at 20:00UTC.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

chuckle

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 07/12/2012 10:36 PM
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/12/2012 10:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Nin. Do you know if the polarity of that CMe, from the X flare, will be pulling the Bz South?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


i would say it is very hard to tell and we will have to wait and see
this becuase the sunspot the CME came from, 1520, had many intermixing polarities some + and some -
all woven together
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/12/2012 10:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nin we all know they read your thread !!! worship
 Quoting: TS66


heard it here 1st!!!! :)
the ego part of me likes to think they do
but the humble part in me says we just agree
:)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I like this.
Thanks, NiNzrez.
Awesome reporting and amazing day!

:eme3:
 Quoting: Parvati


hf
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
tomasgod1

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07/12/2012 10:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Nin. Do you know if the polarity of that CMe, from the X flare, will be pulling the Bz South?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


i would say it is very hard to tell and we will have to wait and see
this becuase the sunspot the CME came from, 1520, had many intermixing polarities some + and some -
all woven together
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Exactly my thoughts on this one as well.

hi NiN
hf
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/12/2012 10:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ooorrgghhh!?

My Head is killing : /

Must be due to [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

And [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I missed the beginning of the X but the effects are for sure persistant,my skull is banging,hard..OouchhH.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


mine was too then i took a shower and feel brand new

a great thing to do when were having this solar activity is take off your shoes and go stand/walk in the grass or sand or dirt
get grounded! doing this will help reduce the negative electrons that sometimes build up in the human body from the bombardment of solar particles/radaition etc
[link to www.naturalbodyhealing.com]
[link to health.howstuffworks.com]

if you still feel yukky after that, a shower will do the job. it does the same thing as the grounding with earth as i said above and a double dose of antioxidants durring this solar weather will also help :)

when you can, do all 3
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/12/2012 10:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Luv by the waymusic
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


You're not wearing your aluminium helmet? 1doh1
 Quoting: SpiderJones


Nooo Spidey J!

The Aluminium induces and amplifies the Waves!

Tinfoil hat plus Amalgam Fillings should mean one would be able to pick up not only FM Bands but also Digital Radio : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


omg 1rof1
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/12/2012 10:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Luv by the waymusic
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium

You're not wearing your aluminium helmet? 1doh1
 Quoting: SpiderJones

Nooo Spidey J!
The Aluminium induces and amplifies the Waves!
Tinfoil hat plus Amalgam Fillings should mean one would be able to pick up not only FM Bands but also Digital Radio : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Gold is best.
The ancients wore gold helmets, beaten-thin gold arm bands, huge gold necklaces and breast plates that covered the heart for a reason.

[link to 4.bp.blogspot.com]

[link to www.janusmuseum.org]

[link to i.ytimg.com]

[link to www.egyptgiftshop.com]

:Inan:
 Quoting: Parvati


ahhhhh bingo!
so so many miss that connection ^^
sounds like something i say on a night at my house while sitting around with friends talking theory ;)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/12/2012 10:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Now we have something to talk about, haha!

This X1.4 Flare from 1520 peaked around 16:49 July 12, 2012 UTC. The CME first shows up ejecting from around the occulting disk on Stereo A Cor2 at 16:54:50, while the flare is still peaking. This was a very fast plane of sky ejection speed. This is a large CME with a lot of material being pushed out from the center or the disk in an Earthward direction, this time. The CMEs thick cloud is very discernable on both Stereo A and B Cor2 images below...

x1.4corb

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

x1.4cora

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

This CME is moving so quickly that it was already seen in the Stereo B HI1 images starting at 23:18UT (that is Venus about to get blasted) below..

x1.4hi1b

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

It looks like CCMC NASA ISWA currently is forcasting the arrival for around 2012 07 14 for approx 18:00 UTC or 2:00pm Sat afternoon, and WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction from NOAA/SWPC is predicting the arrival for approx 2012 07 14 20:00 UTC.

I would not be at all suprised if it arrived within 30-36 hrs from the ejection, putting it's arrival here Fri night into Sat morning between 2012 07 13 22:00 - 2012 07 14 04:00 UTC.
 Quoting: tomasgod1


hey tom! yay back just in time :)
i calculated the time around 06:00 on the 14th
+/- 4hrs
almost the exact same as you
hf

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 07/12/2012 10:50 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Spittin'Cesium

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07/12/2012 10:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Now we have something to talk about, haha!

This X1.4 Flare from 1520 peaked around 16:49 July 12, 2012 UTC. The CME first shows up ejecting from around the occulting disk on Stereo A Cor2 at 16:54:50, while the flare is still peaking. This was a very fast plane of sky ejection speed. This is a large CME with a lot of material being pushed out from the center or the disk in an Earthward direction, this time. The CMEs thick cloud is very discernable on both Stereo A and B Cor2 images below...

x1.4corb

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

x1.4cora

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

This CME is moving so quickly that it was already seen in the Stereo B HI1 images starting at 23:18UT (that is Venus about to get blasted) below..

x1.4hi1b

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

It looks like CCMC NASA ISWA currently is forcasting the arrival for around 2012 07 14 for approx 18:00 UTC or 2:00pm Sat afternoon, and WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction from NOAA/SWPC is predicting the arrival for approx 2012 07 14 20:00 UTC.

I would not be at all suprised if it arrived within 30-36 hrs from the ejection, putting it's arrival here Fri night into Sat morning between 2012 07 13 22:00 - 2012 07 14 04:00 UTC.
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Incredible.

Blooming Plasma Plumage..should be a mighty whack,Multiple wild polarities within you would think from the images and positions of the HSBs.

Thank you Tom for posting : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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07/12/2012 11:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Luv by the waymusic
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


You're not wearing your aluminium helmet? 1doh1
 Quoting: SpiderJones


Nooo Spidey J!

The Aluminium induces and amplifies the Waves!

Tinfoil hat plus Amalgam Fillings should mean one would be able to pick up not only FM Bands but also Digital Radio : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


omg 1rof1
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Hey there NiNzrose
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
finley

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07/12/2012 11:11 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Wow what a day. Hiya all.
Saw the flare, had to leave, just got caught up. Big cme.
When the flare was hitting I had a sharp pain on right side of head. I felt sick too.
I do all of Nin's suggestionshf, including ingesting some organic xtra Virgin Olive oil. It really does help.
Hugh M Eye

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07/12/2012 11:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Now we have something to talk about, haha!

This X1.4 Flare from 1520 peaked around 16:49 July 12, 2012 UTC. The CME first shows up ejecting from around the occulting disk on Stereo A Cor2 at 16:54:50, while the flare is still peaking. This was a very fast plane of sky ejection speed. This is a large CME with a lot of material being pushed out from the center or the disk in an Earthward direction, this time. The CMEs thick cloud is very discernable on both Stereo A and B Cor2 images below...

x1.4corb

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

x1.4cora

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

This CME is moving so quickly that it was already seen in the Stereo B HI1 images starting at 23:18UT (that is Venus about to get blasted) below..

x1.4hi1b

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

It looks like CCMC NASA ISWA currently is forcasting the arrival for around 2012 07 14 for approx 18:00 UTC or 2:00pm Sat afternoon, and WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction from NOAA/SWPC is predicting the arrival for approx 2012 07 14 20:00 UTC.

I would not be at all suprised if it arrived within 30-36 hrs from the ejection, putting it's arrival here Fri night into Sat morning between 2012 07 13 22:00 - 2012 07 14 04:00 UTC.
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Howdy, TG1, great to see you, SunBro!cheers I'm not sure where to begin with this event. First of all, I'm somewhat surprised at the lack of "proton snow" on SOHO considering the size and direction of the CME. The Sun seems to guard its secrets very well indeed, haha.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPC0
Serial Number: 65
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 13 0034 UTC

CANCEL WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Cancel Serial Number: 64
Original Issue Time: 2012 Jul 12 1740 UTC

Comment: Conditions no longer present for warning.
Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

... more when I gather my wits, LOL.
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2012 11:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I think there is a bigger one coming tonight. I understand LDEs, but I haven't seen an X yet. I've also noticed that they've been coming in pairs.

I hope I'm wrong.
Hugh M Eye

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07/12/2012 11:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Wow what a day. Hiya all.
Saw the flare, had to leave, just got caught up. Big cme.
When the flare was hitting I had a sharp pain on right side of head. I felt sick too.
I do all of Nin's suggestionshf, including ingesting some organic xtra Virgin Olive oil. It really does help.
 Quoting: finley


I felt fantastic & energized all day. My friend, however, was working in the sun today and he looked burnt and went to bed early. Different sunstrokes for different folks, I guess, hehe.
tomasgod1

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07/12/2012 11:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hey tom! yay back just in time :)
i calculated the time around 06:00 on the 14th
+/- 4hrs
almost the exact same as you
hf
 Quoting: NiNzrez


sunglasses

Cool deal! I think we've got it right on.
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
tomasgod1

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07/12/2012 11:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Howdy, TG1, great to see you, SunBro!cheers I'm not sure where to begin with this event. First of all, I'm somewhat surprised at the lack of "proton snow" on SOHO considering the size and direction of the CME. The Sun seems to guard its secrets very well indeed, haha.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPC0
Serial Number: 65
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 13 0034 UTC

CANCEL WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Cancel Serial Number: 64
Original Issue Time: 2012 Jul 12 1740 UTC

Comment: Conditions no longer present for warning.
Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

... more when I gather my wits, LOL.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I have been watching SOHO for it as well. It is a shame that they missed the initial event with this equipment, as that might have helped answer some questions. It may still be on the way. The largest push of those particles is usually out in front of the CME wave. Also, those particles travel much faster and are more Earth directed when we are magnetically connected(foot Point Location) to the Sunspot Region, which in this case, we were not.

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 07/12/2012 11:31 PM
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
RTS REDUX

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07/12/2012 11:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm somewhat surprised at the lack of "proton snow" on SOHO considering the size and direction of the CME. The Sun seems to guard its secrets very well indeed, haha.

 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C2 was shut down from 17:12 to 22:42

here's the 17:12UT image..

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by RTS REDUX on 07/12/2012 11:35 PM
finley

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07/12/2012 11:33 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Howdy, TG1, great to see you, SunBro!cheers I'm not sure where to begin with this event. First of all, I'm somewhat surprised at the lack of "proton snow" on SOHO considering the size and direction of the CME. The Sun seems to guard its secrets very well indeed, haha.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPC0
Serial Number: 65
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 13 0034 UTC

CANCEL WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Cancel Serial Number: 64
Original Issue Time: 2012 Jul 12 1740 UTC

Comment: Conditions no longer present for warning.
Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

... more when I gather my wits, LOL.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I have been watching SOHO for it as well. It is a shame that they missed the initial event with this equipment, as that might have helped answer some questions. It may still be on the way. The largest push of those particles is usually out in front of the CME wave. Also, those particles travel much faster and are more Earth directed when we are magnetically connected(foot Point Location) to the Sunspot Region, which in this case, we were not.
 Quoting: tomasgod1


It's so nice to read you guys. Hiya Tom. It always seems to happen that when there is an event that there is missing data.cool2 Oh are you Tom ref to the magnetic hwy. that we wernt on when flare happened. And what do you say about the cme and the bz. Thanks.

Last Edited by finley on 07/12/2012 11:35 PM
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/12/2012 11:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Wow what a day. Hiya all.
Saw the flare, had to leave, just got caught up. Big cme.
When the flare was hitting I had a sharp pain on right side of head. I felt sick too.
I do all of Nin's suggestionshf, including ingesting some organic xtra Virgin Olive oil. It really does help.
 Quoting: finley


oo i forgot to add the olive oil!
wonder oil it is :)
thanks Finley
hf
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 19372178
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07/12/2012 11:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm somewhat surprised at the lack of "proton snow" on SOHO considering the size and direction of the CME. The Sun seems to guard its secrets very well indeed, haha.

 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C2 was shut down from 17:12 to 22:42

here's the 17:12UT image..

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


This was going to be my second point....WTF? SOHO often has huge gaps between downloads from space, but they are usually updated within 12 hours. Not this time! The data is forever missing..again, WTF? This is the main purpose of the SOHO Mission and it's not working while folks are predicting a 60+% chance of X-flares AND the AR is directly Earth-facing?!? At the risk of being redundant...WTF?????wtf

I don't want to feed anyone's paranoia, but during last weeks X-flare the SDO website was down for re-construction. Can't NASA get their shit together to be prepared for a SOLAR MAXIMUM?

Excuuuuse Me, but WHAT THE F__K?
tomatowtf
nerdrage88sasr

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07/12/2012 11:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm somewhat surprised at the lack of "proton snow" on SOHO considering the size and direction of the CME. The Sun seems to guard its secrets very well indeed, haha.

 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C2 was shut down from 17:12 to 22:42

here's the 17:12UT image..

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


This was going to be my second point....WTF? SOHO often has huge gaps between downloads from space, but they are usually updated within 12 hours. Not this time! The data is forever missing..again, WTF? This is the main purpose of the SOHO Mission and it's not working while folks are predicting a 60+% chance of X-flares AND the AR is directly Earth-facing?!? At the risk of being redundant...WTF?????wtf

I don't want to feed anyone's paranoia, but during last weeks X-flare the SDO website was down for re-construction. Can't NASA get their shit together to be prepared for a SOLAR MAXIMUM?

Excuuuuse Me, but WHAT THE F__K?
tomatowtf
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


clappa
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Mission Invisible

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07/13/2012 12:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
well... its now the last friday the 13th in the year 2012...maybe it will live up to its name...
"So you're made of detritus [from exploded stars]. Get over it. Or better yet...Celebrate it. After all, what nobler thought can one cherish than that the universe lives within us all?"

Neil deGrasse Tyson



"We were told that the changes in our world would become the catalyst for ones within us..."
Fractal Time, Gregg Braden
finley

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07/13/2012 12:01 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm somewhat surprised at the lack of "proton snow" on SOHO considering the size and direction of the CME. The Sun seems to guard its secrets very well indeed, haha.

 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C2 was shut down from 17:12 to 22:42

here's the 17:12UT image..

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


This was going to be my second point....WTF? SOHO often has huge gaps between downloads from space, but they are usually updated within 12 hours. Not this time! The data is forever missing..again, WTF? This is the main purpose of the SOHO Mission and it's not working while folks are predicting a 60+% chance of X-flares AND the AR is directly Earth-facing?!? At the risk of being redundant...WTF?????wtf

I don't want to feed anyone's paranoia, but during last weeks X-flare the SDO website was down for re-construction. Can't NASA get their shit together to be prepared for a SOLAR MAXIMUM?
Totally!!!
Excuuuuse Me, but WHAT THE F__K?
tomatowtf
Totally wtf Come On they can't be that Stupid!!!
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Last Edited by finley on 07/13/2012 12:02 AM
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 12:05 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
bump
tomasgod1

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07/13/2012 12:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Howdy, TG1, great to see you, SunBro!cheers I'm not sure where to begin with this event. First of all, I'm somewhat surprised at the lack of "proton snow" on SOHO considering the size and direction of the CME. The Sun seems to guard its secrets very well indeed, haha.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPC0
Serial Number: 65
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 13 0034 UTC

CANCEL WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Cancel Serial Number: 64
Original Issue Time: 2012 Jul 12 1740 UTC

Comment: Conditions no longer present for warning.
Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

... more when I gather my wits, LOL.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I have been watching SOHO for it as well. It is a shame that they missed the initial event with this equipment, as that might have helped answer some questions. It may still be on the way. The largest push of those particles is usually out in front of the CME wave. Also, those particles travel much faster and are more Earth directed when we are magnetically connected(foot Point Location) to the Sunspot Region, which in this case, we were not.
 Quoting: tomasgod1


It's so nice to read you guys. Hiya Tom. It always seems to happen that when there is an event that there is missing data.cool2 Oh are you Tom ref to the magnetic hwy. that we wernt on when flare happened. And what do you say about the cme and the bz. Thanks.
 Quoting: finley


Hi Finley hi
Always great to see you! Yes, you know the magnetic field line point of connectivity that our Earth has at any given time through the heliosphere to the Sun's corona. It is in a constant state of flux, and todays model has our connection to the SW limb during the time of the flare. We did however have a fairly strong connection initially and then the connectivity dropped (see images below). We are still undergoing a SEP event at any rate, so the proton flux remains high.

x1.4sep1

x1.4sep2

I just uploaded these so it may take a while for them to appear.

As for the the Bz direction with the arival of this CME? NiN and I both agree that because of the magnetic complexity of this very large Sunspot Region; that we will just have to wait and see!
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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Hugh M Eye

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07/13/2012 12:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
well... its now the last friday the 13th in the year 2012...maybe it will live up to its name...
 Quoting: Mission Invisible


Hi, Mission Invisible, hf Why did ya have to remind me? I was gonna go out an' try t' get laid tonight, LOL. Three years ago I got run over by an SUV on Friday 13th at 6 AM....now I'm putting on my gold helmet, haha.
uhohscared
whiteangel
Joy

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07/13/2012 12:10 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm somewhat surprised at the lack of "proton snow" on SOHO considering the size and direction of the CME. The Sun seems to guard its secrets very well indeed, haha.

 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C2 was shut down from 17:12 to 22:42

here's the 17:12UT image..

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


This was going to be my second point....WTF? SOHO often has huge gaps between downloads from space, but they are usually updated within 12 hours. Not this time! The data is forever missing..again, WTF? This is the main purpose of the SOHO Mission and it's not working while folks are predicting a 60+% chance of X-flares AND the AR is directly Earth-facing?!? At the risk of being redundant...WTF?????wtf

I don't want to feed anyone's paranoia, but during last weeks X-flare the SDO website was down for re-construction. Can't NASA get their shit together to be prepared for a SOLAR MAXIMUM?

Excuuuuse Me, but WHAT THE F__K?
tomatowtf
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Don't be surprised hon. It happens more and more often.
Find your light and shine
finley

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07/13/2012 12:12 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Wow so we were connected. Great info. Thanks. You are soo fine!!hf

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