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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
tomasgod1

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07/13/2012 12:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Howdy, TG1, great to see you, SunBro!cheers I'm not sure where to begin with this event. First of all, I'm somewhat surprised at the lack of "proton snow" on SOHO considering the size and direction of the CME. The Sun seems to guard its secrets very well indeed, haha.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPC0
Serial Number: 65
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 13 0034 UTC

CANCEL WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Cancel Serial Number: 64
Original Issue Time: 2012 Jul 12 1740 UTC

Comment: Conditions no longer present for warning.
Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

... more when I gather my wits, LOL.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I have been watching SOHO for it as well. It is a shame that they missed the initial event with this equipment, as that might have helped answer some questions. It may still be on the way. The largest push of those particles is usually out in front of the CME wave. Also, those particles travel much faster and are more Earth directed when we are magnetically connected(foot Point Location) to the Sunspot Region, which in this case, we were not.
 Quoting: tomasgod1


It's so nice to read you guys. Hiya Tom. It always seems to happen that when there is an event that there is missing data.cool2 Oh are you Tom ref to the magnetic hwy. that we wernt on when flare happened. And what do you say about the cme and the bz. Thanks.
 Quoting: finley


Hi Finley hi
Always great to see you! Yes, you know the magnetic field line point of connectivity that our Earth has at any given time through the heliosphere to the Sun's corona. It is in a constant state of flux, and todays model has our connection to the SW limb during the time of the flare. We did however have a fairly strong connection initially and then the connectivity dropped (see images below). We are still undergoing a SEP event at any rate, so the proton flux remains high.

x1.4sep1

x1.4sep2

I just uploaded these so it may take a while for them to appear.

As for the the Bz direction with the arival of this CME? NiN and I both agree that because of the magnetic complexity of this very large Sunspot Region; that we will just have to wait and see!
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Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
well... its now the last friday the 13th in the year 2012...maybe it will live up to its name...
 Quoting: Mission Invisible


Hi, Mission Invisible, hf Why did ya have to remind me? I was gonna go out an' try t' get laid tonight, LOL. Three years ago I got run over by an SUV on Friday 13th at 6 AM....now I'm putting on my gold helmet, haha.
uhohscared
whiteangel

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07/13/2012 12:10 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm somewhat surprised at the lack of "proton snow" on SOHO considering the size and direction of the CME. The Sun seems to guard its secrets very well indeed, haha.

 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C2 was shut down from 17:12 to 22:42

here's the 17:12UT image..

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


This was going to be my second point....WTF? SOHO often has huge gaps between downloads from space, but they are usually updated within 12 hours. Not this time! The data is forever missing..again, WTF? This is the main purpose of the SOHO Mission and it's not working while folks are predicting a 60+% chance of X-flares AND the AR is directly Earth-facing?!? At the risk of being redundant...WTF?????wtf

I don't want to feed anyone's paranoia, but during last weeks X-flare the SDO website was down for re-construction. Can't NASA get their shit together to be prepared for a SOLAR MAXIMUM?

Excuuuuse Me, but WHAT THE F__K?
tomatowtf
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Don't be surprised hon. It happens more and more often.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
God is NOT dead!
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finley

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07/13/2012 12:12 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Wow so we were connected. Great info. Thanks. You are soo fine!!hf
Spittin'Cesium

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07/13/2012 12:13 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm somewhat surprised at the lack of "proton snow" on SOHO considering the size and direction of the CME. The Sun seems to guard its secrets very well indeed, haha.

 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C2 was shut down from 17:12 to 22:42

here's the 17:12UT image..

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


This was going to be my second point....WTF? SOHO often has huge gaps between downloads from space, but they are usually updated within 12 hours. Not this time! The data is forever missing..again, WTF? This is the main purpose of the SOHO Mission and it's not working while folks are predicting a 60+% chance of X-flares AND the AR is directly Earth-facing?!? At the risk of being redundant...WTF?????wtf

I don't want to feed anyone's paranoia, but during last weeks X-flare the SDO website was down for re-construction. Can't NASA get their shit together to be prepared for a SOLAR MAXIMUM?

Excuuuuse Me, but WHAT THE F__K?
tomatowtf
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I think they fear becoming reduntant : )

They will hold the info for them selves so that they alone can make the first predictions resulting from Solar Events,maybe?

: )

But I do to share yours and others concerns' that they are a bunch of useless fat Taco-Bell SolTrolls eating all the Proton Biscuits to themselves,not ready/willing to show the data.

Talking of Protons..where are they in the image's from C2 etc.?

I see the Protons picked up by the monitors but not in the image feed - Wth is that about?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
finley

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07/13/2012 12:14 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
well... its now the last friday the 13th in the year 2012...maybe it will live up to its name...
 Quoting: Mission Invisible


Hi, Mission Invisible, hf Why did ya have to remind me? I was gonna go out an' try t' get laid tonight, LOL. Three years ago I got run over by an SUV on Friday 13th at 6 AM....now I'm putting on my gold helmet, haha.
uhohscared
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Wow I'm sorry you got hurt. Glad you can laugh now. I must upgrade so I can e-mail again.
tomasgod1

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07/13/2012 12:17 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm somewhat surprised at the lack of "proton snow" on SOHO considering the size and direction of the CME. The Sun seems to guard its secrets very well indeed, haha.

 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C2 was shut down from 17:12 to 22:42

here's the 17:12UT image..

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


This was going to be my second point....WTF? SOHO often has huge gaps between downloads from space, but they are usually updated within 12 hours. Not this time! The data is forever missing..again, WTF? This is the main purpose of the SOHO Mission and it's not working while folks are predicting a 60+% chance of X-flares AND the AR is directly Earth-facing?!? At the risk of being redundant...WTF?????wtf

I don't want to feed anyone's paranoia, but during last weeks X-flare the SDO website was down for re-construction. Can't NASA get their shit together to be prepared for a SOLAR MAXIMUM?

Excuuuuse Me, but WHAT THE F__K?
tomatowtf
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I will post the video for you. It has always made me feel better.


_______

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Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 12:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
not sure if this has been posted, but they concur that it will slam right into earth
Spittin'Cesium

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07/13/2012 12:28 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ahh : )

Enough Chimps + Time = NOAA/SOHO/NASA.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
tomasgod1

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07/13/2012 12:30 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Wow so we were connected. Great info. Thanks. You are soo fine!!hf
 Quoting: finley


Welcome!

I should have stated it better.

Although we were not directly connected to Sunspot Region 1520 in close proximity; we initially had a strong connection during the X1.4 flare causing a sudden SEP event. The connection later dropped off, and a SEP event continues in effect.tounge

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 07/13/2012 12:31 AM
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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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Hugh M Eye

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07/13/2012 12:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The ONLY SOHO image of incoming CME-(note: nothing on the CACTus or SEEDS CME analytics website, UUGGHHH!)
:cme7/12c2:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 195 Issued at 0030Z on 13 Jul 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 12 Jul
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 12/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1519 S14W31 108 0050 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1520 S16W09 086 1460 Fkc 20 53 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1521 S21W21 097 0210 Esi 11 18 Beta-Gamma
1522 N13W21 098 0020 Cro 03 04 Beta
1523 S27E31 046 0010 Bxo 03 06 Beta


GIGANTOR has grown again! Also, two new regions have been numbered. The first ,#1522 in the north, I had predicted Tuesday night; and another, #1523, is growing in the SE.

Latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Another surprise is the lack of change in the GIGANTOR magnetogram over 48 hrs. Unlike AR1515, which seemed to morph dramatically every few hours, 1520 looks remarkably unchanged, even tho the X-ray output jumped from B-range to X-range. Here's the magnetogram I posted on 7/10-
:1520_HMIBC:

And this magnetogram from 7/13-
:1520magneto7/13:

It seems GIGANTOR has a split personality complex, LOL.

Let me add, for comparison, the image of the March 10 Earth-directed CME -
dabigone
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07/13/2012 12:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hanging at C1.5 for awhile now. Plotting it's next move?
Mission Invisible

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07/13/2012 12:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
well... its now the last friday the 13th in the year 2012...maybe it will live up to its name...
 Quoting: Mission Invisible


Hi, Mission Invisible, hf Why did ya have to remind me? I was gonna go out an' try t' get laid tonight, LOL. Three years ago I got run over by an SUV on Friday 13th at 6 AM....now I'm putting on my gold helmet, haha.
uhohscared
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


lol and on top of that the fat lady is "singing" :)


Thread: World's Heaviest Woman Loses 100 lbs Jiggling to Marathon Sex w/ Ex Husband Who Has Difficulty Finding Her Pleasure Spots Due to Pelvic Fat


...and on that note...good luck tonight!
"So you're made of detritus [from exploded stars]. Get over it. Or better yet...Celebrate it. After all, what nobler thought can one cherish than that the universe lives within us all?"

Neil deGrasse Tyson



"We were told that the changes in our world would become the catalyst for ones within us..."
Fractal Time, Gregg Braden
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 12:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Headed up slowly
whiteangel

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07/13/2012 01:02 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hiccup
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
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Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Headed up slowly
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872

and back down again
I think 1520 is done putting out flares
goodnews
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just for the record, this is the most boring X-flare I've seen so far....

The "long view" SDO movie:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

The "close-up" SDO movie:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

STEREO B Cor2 CME movie (much more exciting):

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I think the enormous size of this sunspot region makes it appear more sluggish and potentially more powerful when activated. This may be just a preview of some REALLY BIG events to come if this region gets excited. Maybe not on this rotation, but I think GIGANTOR is capable of XTREME (X10+) flares if it continues to grow and morph. Possibly because of its size, it seems to be in no hurry to mature. I'm not a remote viewer or a psychic, I just have a "gut feeling" this guy could get out-of-hand at some point.
hiding
C3Music
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
LASCO C3 shows a sungrazing comet headed for the sun right now. Everytime in the past one of these sungrazers interacts with the sun there have always been some sort of flare/cme. Worrysome a little because of the current position of 1520, it's potential of release. We shall see, has anyone else thought of this? I just woke up so if this was talked about a few pages back please disregard

popcorn
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just for the record, this is the most boring X-flare I've seen so far....

The "long view" SDO movie:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

The "close-up" SDO movie:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

STEREO B Cor2 CME movie (much more exciting):

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I think the enormous size of this sunspot region makes it appear more sluggish and potentially more powerful when activated. This may be just a preview of some REALLY BIG events to come if this region gets excited. Maybe not on this rotation, but I think GIGANTOR is capable of XTREME (X10+) flares if it continues to grow and morph. Possibly because of its size, it seems to be in no hurry to mature. I'm not a remote viewer or a psychic, I just have a "gut feeling" this guy could get out-of-hand at some point.
hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

I feel like we might see 1515/1513 grow on the backside too.
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ahh : )

Enough Chimps + Time = NOAA/SOHO/NASA.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


lmao
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
LASCO C3 shows a sungrazing comet headed for the sun right now. Everytime in the past one of these sungrazers interacts with the sun there have always been some sort of flare/cme. Worrysome a little because of the current position of 1520, it's potential of release. We shall see, has anyone else thought of this? I just woke up so if this was talked about a few pages back please disregard

popcorn
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592
Nice catch

popcorn
joinca

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solar storm protection --->Space Daily Jul 13, 2012
NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) captured this M5.6 class solar flare on July 2, 2012, at 6:52 a.m. EDT. The flare came from a large sunspot called AR1515 in the sun's southern hemisphere. The flare caused brief radio interference over Europe. Image courtesy NASA/SDO.
Massive explosions on the sun unleash radiation that could kill astronauts in space. Now, researchers from the U.S. and South Korea have developed a warning system capable of forecasting the radiation from these violent solar storms nearly three hours (166 minutes) in advance, giving astronauts, as well as air crews flying over Earth's polar regions, time to take protective action.
The full article is here: [link to www.spacedaily.com]
cool2
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
LASCO C3 shows a sungrazing comet headed for the sun right now. Everytime in the past one of these sungrazers interacts with the sun there have always been some sort of flare/cme. Worrysome a little because of the current position of 1520, it's potential of release. We shall see, has anyone else thought of this? I just woke up so if this was talked about a few pages back please disregard

popcorn
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


I've seen several comets in the past go into the sun, and at the same time, the sun let loose w/ a big CME, coinsidence?? It sure did not look like it to me.
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solar storm protection --->Space Daily Jul 13, 2012
NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) captured this M5.6 class solar flare on July 2, 2012, at 6:52 a.m. EDT. The flare came from a large sunspot called AR1515 in the sun's southern hemisphere. The flare caused brief radio interference over Europe. Image courtesy NASA/SDO.
Massive explosions on the sun unleash radiation that could kill astronauts in space. Now, researchers from the U.S. and South Korea have developed a warning system capable of forecasting the radiation from these violent solar storms nearly three hours (166 minutes) in advance, giving astronauts, as well as air crews flying over Earth's polar regions, time to take protective action.
The full article is here: [link to www.spacedaily.com]
cool2
 Quoting: joinca


Hey, Jo, where ya gone with dat Sun in your hand? Sorry, friend, couldn't resist, hehe.

If this is the one they have at the South Pole neutron detectors, I think I posted this story before to stone silence. Anyway, here's a related article (more in depth) from Science:

[link to news.sciencemag.org]

Keep up the good work....PEACE>
finley

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07/13/2012 01:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
LASCO C3 shows a sungrazing comet headed for the sun right now. Everytime in the past one of these sungrazers interacts with the sun there have always been some sort of flare/cme. Worrysome a little because of the current position of 1520, it's potential of release. We shall see, has anyone else thought of this? I just woke up so if this was talked about a few pages back please disregard

popcorn
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


I've seen several comets in the past go into the sun, and at the same time, the sun let loose w/ a big CME, coinsidence?? It sure did not look like it to me.
 Quoting: SpiderJones


Hi Spider. Yes I don't think they were coincidence, they were claimed to be however.
Spittin'Cesium

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07/13/2012 01:23 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Check out the 'Hook em' Horns' at 8:30 on the dial [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

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07/13/2012 01:25 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I GOTTA GUT FEELIN'...I Can't take it no mo'!


[link to www.youtube.com]



[link to www.youtube.com]
C3Music
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07/13/2012 01:34 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
LASCO C3 shows a sungrazing comet headed for the sun right now. Everytime in the past one of these sungrazers interacts with the sun there have always been some sort of flare/cme. Worrysome a little because of the current position of 1520, it's potential of release. We shall see, has anyone else thought of this? I just woke up so if this was talked about a few pages back please disregard

popcorn
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


I've seen several comets in the past go into the sun, and at the same time, the sun let loose w/ a big CME, coinsidence?? It sure did not look like it to me.
 Quoting: SpiderJones


Hi Spider. Yes I don't think they were coincidence, they were claimed to be however.
 Quoting: finley


[link to sohowww.estec.esa.nl]
At about 4:30 position
Spittin'Cesium

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07/13/2012 01:47 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
LASCO C3 shows a sungrazing comet headed for the sun right now. Everytime in the past one of these sungrazers interacts with the sun there have always been some sort of flare/cme. Worrysome a little because of the current position of 1520, it's potential of release. We shall see, has anyone else thought of this? I just woke up so if this was talked about a few pages back please disregard

popcorn
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


I've seen several comets in the past go into the sun, and at the same time, the sun let loose w/ a big CME, coinsidence?? It sure did not look like it to me.
 Quoting: SpiderJones


Hi Spider. Yes I don't think they were coincidence, they were claimed to be however.
 Quoting: finley


[link to sohowww.estec.esa.nl]
At about 4:30 position
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


I see it,very small,starts to show a tail around 08:42 Timestamp,good eye : )

I think that would be a Kreutz Family Comet [link to en.wikipedia.org]

Quote,

'The Kreutz Sungrazers are a family of sungrazing comets, characterized by orbits taking them extremely close to the Sun at perihelion. They are believed to be fragments of one large comet that broke up several centuries ago and are named for German astronomer Heinrich Kreutz, who first demonstrated that they were related'.

We'll see what happens with this little muff diver.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

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07/13/2012 01:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
LASCO C3 shows a sungrazing comet headed for the sun right now. Everytime in the past one of these sungrazers interacts with the sun there have always been some sort of flare/cme. Worrysome a little because of the current position of 1520, it's potential of release. We shall see, has anyone else thought of this? I just woke up so if this was talked about a few pages back please disregard

popcorn
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


I've seen several comets in the past go into the sun, and at the same time, the sun let loose w/ a big CME, coinsidence?? It sure did not look like it to me.
 Quoting: SpiderJones


Hi Spider. Yes I don't think they were coincidence, they were claimed to be however.
 Quoting: finley


[link to sohowww.estec.esa.nl]
At about 4:30 position
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


Thanks, C3, it'll be very interesting to see what happens to this comet. It seems 4 out 5 sizable comets get a CME greeting. Here's a larger image from SOHO:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

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