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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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07/13/2012 01:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
LASCO C3 shows a sungrazing comet headed for the sun right now. Everytime in the past one of these sungrazers interacts with the sun there have always been some sort of flare/cme. Worrysome a little because of the current position of 1520, it's potential of release. We shall see, has anyone else thought of this? I just woke up so if this was talked about a few pages back please disregard

popcorn
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


I've seen several comets in the past go into the sun, and at the same time, the sun let loose w/ a big CME, coinsidence?? It sure did not look like it to me.
 Quoting: SpiderJones


Hi Spider. Yes I don't think they were coincidence, they were claimed to be however.
 Quoting: finley


[link to sohowww.estec.esa.nl]
At about 4:30 position
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


Where did you hear about this comet, my musical friend? If this is your dicovery you should register it. I can't find any info on NRL's Sungrazer page or their Twitter page...
[link to sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil]

[link to twitter.com]
Spittin'Cesium

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07/13/2012 01:55 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Anyhoo'..I have been trying to read up a little more about the Helmet Streamer Belts so I can try and understand/help predict where some CMEs' may emerge from and any possible effect the streamers may have on any ejecta from the Sun and thought I'd share this with anyone who has the time to read/scan through it [link to iopscience.iop.org]

A little out of date references but should be helpful all the same : )

I also found this nice little 2D model simulation of a CME related to the Streamers Fields based over a 7 Day period [link to iopscience.iop.org]

Pretty neat.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 07/13/2012 01:55 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Vandetta7

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07/13/2012 01:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
RTS REDUX

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07/13/2012 02:08 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
@ 2:12 or thereabouts is a description of what was experienced during the Carrington event

[link to www.youtube.com]

Last Edited by RTS REDUX on 07/13/2012 02:10 AM
"If one understands that socialism is not a share-the-wealth programme, but is in reality a method to consolidate and control the wealth, then the seeming paradox of super-rich men promoting socialism becomes no paradox at all. Instead, it becomes logical, even the perfect tool of power-seeking megalomaniacs.

Communism or more accurately, socialism, is not a movement of the downtrodden masses, but of the economic elite."

Gary Allen

NONE DARE CALL IT CONSPIRACY
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hitler was a leftist

[link to constitutionalistnc.tripod.com]

siggif2
C3Music
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07/13/2012 02:12 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


I've seen several comets in the past go into the sun, and at the same time, the sun let loose w/ a big CME, coinsidence?? It sure did not look like it to me.
 Quoting: SpiderJones


Hi Spider. Yes I don't think they were coincidence, they were claimed to be however.
 Quoting: finley


[link to sohowww.estec.esa.nl]
At about 4:30 position
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


Where did you hear about this comet, my musical friend? If this is your dicovery you should register it. I can't find any info on NRL's Sungrazer page or their Twitter page...
[link to sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil]

[link to twitter.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I was just doing my normal web rounds when I saw it. That makes me feel pretty good if I "discovered" it. The first thought I had though was damn if this does what all the other sun grazers do then the sun will asplode :) when it dives into it. I also think its funny how the whole C3 thing lines up. C3Music has nothing to do with lasco or space, it's my music group I had a few years back.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 02:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we are now seeing a complex connection between 1518, 1519, 1521, 1520 and the area above 1520 where the filament lifted off earlier today
here we can see where these regions are located
[link to www.solen.info]
here we can see the complex connection between them all
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

if you look on the SDO movie for all of today
2012-07-11 00:00:00
through
2012-07-11 22:00:00
and look at the filter 211, 193, 171
we can see how the filament eruption fed into the whole 1520 extended area
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

after it loads, be sure to hit the - button on the top to slow down the movie to around 3 frames per sec
this will slow it down enough to see it well

also look at the filter
 Quoting: NiNzrez


We're fucked. my dear Ninz. By the beginning of next year, there'll be no doubt if any of us are still alive

Thread: Russian Federation Warnings: New information of solar activity
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18442200


bump for DOOM
C3Music
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07/13/2012 02:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Oh yeah I just finished reading a book called "A Distant Eden". It's about how a family deals with a CME bringing down the grid. It was very good and had a lot of tips in it that I didn't think about. It was definitely worth the 99 cents. I'm not the author and have no ties to this book. I just thought that since this thread is about such events many of you would like to read it. Have any of you read it?
tomasgod1

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07/13/2012 02:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This CME is moving really fast. I have been waiting for Stereo B HI1 to update, but nada since 23:18 UT on the 12th. AARRGHH! They have been updating Ahead HI1 though and it has tore past Mercury and almost across the view of HI1
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Ahead HI2 isn't going to be of much use as it is looking at this globular section of our galaxy at the moment.

If the NASA/CCMC Cone models are anywhere close to being right(and I think they are), this CME is going to hit fast and hard. The models have it arriving with the density maxed out while still cruising at over 800 km/s. This should make for a big IP shock/large deviation.

I will leave you guys with dreams of Auroras dancing in your heads. Gnite!


_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Spittin'Cesium

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07/13/2012 02:38 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The Region around 1520 looks like it is 'sucking' the surrondings into it [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] <--- Zoom in and you'll see what I mean : )
The darker areas around that ^ image almost look like the Penumbra of a Sunspot!(Penumbra image for watchers [link to davidpratt.info] )

Here it looks like it has tendrils all over the place,reaching out for whatever it can [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

A little concerned that it seems to be plugging itself to the Filament in the North,just above the Equator : ?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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07/13/2012 02:40 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This CME is moving really fast. I have been waiting for Stereo B HI1 to update, but nada since 23:18 UT on the 12th. AARRGHH! They have been updating Ahead HI1 though and it has tore past Mercury and almost across the view of HI1
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Ahead HI2 isn't going to be of much use as it is looking at this globular section of our galaxy at the moment.

If the NASA/CCMC Cone models are anywhere close to being right(and I think they are), this CME is going to hit fast and hard. The models have it arriving with the density maxed out while still cruising at over 800 km/s. This should make for a big IP shock/large deviation.

I will leave you guys with dreams of Auroras dancing in your heads. Gnite!


 Quoting: tomasgod1


Nice one : )

Goodnight TaG1 - rest well.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 02:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The Region around 1520 looks like it is 'sucking' the surrondings into it [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] <--- Zoom in and you'll see what I mean : )
The darker areas around that ^ image almost look like the Penumbra of a Sunspot!(Penumbra image for watchers [link to davidpratt.info] )

Here it looks like it has tendrils all over the place,reaching out for whatever it can [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

A little concerned that it seems to be plugging itself to the Filament in the North,just above the Equator : ?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium

sure looks like its feeding from the filament
monster
Hugh M Eye

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07/13/2012 03:12 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This CME is moving really fast. I have been waiting for Stereo B HI1 to update, but nada since 23:18 UT on the 12th. AARRGHH! They have been updating Ahead HI1 though and it has tore past Mercury and almost across the view of HI1
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Ahead HI2 isn't going to be of much use as it is looking at this globular section of our galaxy at the moment.

If the NASA/CCMC Cone models are anywhere close to being right(and I think they are), this CME is going to hit fast and hard. The models have it arriving with the density maxed out while still cruising at over 800 km/s. This should make for a big IP shock/large deviation.

I will leave you guys with dreams of Auroras dancing in your heads. Gnite!


 Quoting: tomasgod1


Just WOW, I'm just speechless for a moment now......
gasp

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 07/13/2012 03:13 AM
Hugh M Eye

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07/13/2012 03:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Oh yeah I just finished reading a book called "A Distant Eden". It's about how a family deals with a CME bringing down the grid. It was very good and had a lot of tips in it that I didn't think about. It was definitely worth the 99 cents. I'm not the author and have no ties to this book. I just thought that since this thread is about such events many of you would like to read it. Have any of you read it?
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


Thanks, man, I'll definitely keep an eye out for it. I didn't know they still had 99cent sci-fi novels. I used to own a Philip K. Dick novel called EYE IN THE SKY from the early sixties and the cover-price was only 35cents.....another indication of our enslavement (the cost I mean).


endathand
Hugh M Eye

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07/13/2012 03:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey, NerdRage and India, and fellow insomniacs...WAKE UP! I'm all alone here at this hour,LOL. Ever since FUKUSHIMA, my biorhythms have been turning Japanese, ie., insomniac, haha.

takecover!
finley

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07/13/2012 03:29 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi hugh I'm still here. Hey, this cme is really hugh. Have you seen a bigger one hit us directly? Didn't we have some this big last year? what say you?
C3Music
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07/13/2012 03:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Oh yeah I just finished reading a book called "A Distant Eden". It's about how a family deals with a CME bringing down the grid. It was very good and had a lot of tips in it that I didn't think about. It was definitely worth the 99 cents. I'm not the author and have no ties to this book. I just thought that since this thread is about such events many of you would like to read it. Have any of you read it?
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


Thanks, man, I'll definitely keep an eye out for it. I didn't know they still had 99cent sci-fi novels. I used to own a Philip K. Dick novel called EYE IN THE SKY from the early sixties and the cover-price was only 35cents.....another indication of our enslavement (the cost I mean).


:endathand:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I'm still here as well, the book is on kindle, forgot to mention that. She looks like she wants to climb, but really we never know. I guess we are night patrol.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 03:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Hugh, looking out for your expert commentary on the CME which is about to hit us. What is your view? Has a similar one hit us ?
finley

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07/13/2012 03:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ha Ha

Well I think I remember us getting hit like this last year after the Fukishima nightmare. Being it's a big one but only one we will be okay.

Anyone else?

Im finally tired. Good-night out there.stoner

Last Edited by finley on 07/13/2012 03:46 AM
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 03:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This CME is moving really fast. I have been waiting for Stereo B HI1 to update, but nada since 23:18 UT on the 12th. AARRGHH! They have been updating Ahead HI1 though and it has tore past Mercury and almost across the view of HI1
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Ahead HI2 isn't going to be of much use as it is looking at this globular section of our galaxy at the moment.

If the NASA/CCMC Cone models are anywhere close to being right(and I think they are), this CME is going to hit fast and hard. The models have it arriving with the density maxed out while still cruising at over 800 km/s. This should make for a big IP shock/large deviation.

I will leave you guys with dreams of Auroras dancing in your heads. Gnite!


 Quoting: tomasgod1


You are right, it seems to be about 10-12 hours faster than the simulation.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 03:49 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This CME is moving really fast. I have been waiting for Stereo B HI1 to update, but nada since 23:18 UT on the 12th. AARRGHH! They have been updating Ahead HI1 though and it has tore past Mercury and almost across the view of HI1
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Ahead HI2 isn't going to be of much use as it is looking at this globular section of our galaxy at the moment.

If the NASA/CCMC Cone models are anywhere close to being right(and I think they are), this CME is going to hit fast and hard. The models have it arriving with the density maxed out while still cruising at over 800 km/s. This should make for a big IP shock/large deviation.

I will leave you guys with dreams of Auroras dancing in your heads. Gnite!


 Quoting: tomasgod1


You are right, it seems to be about 10-12 hours faster than the simulation.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7546576

Where is earth in that pic?
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
More pics
CME moving VERY fast
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 03:49 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ha Ha

Well I think I remember us getting hit like this last year after the Fukishima nightmare. Being it's a big one but only one we will be okay.

Anyone else?
 Quoting: finley


People seem to be overreacting to the size. We had some large hits earlier this year.

Most of the time a single CME isn't cause for alarm, carrington was two.

The speed of this one is also low compared to the theorized carrington speed (2000kms+) compared to this ones 1,400.

We get hit by large 1800s all the time with no ill effects, but anyone trying to tell you anything for certain is lieing to you.

We don't even know exactly when it will hit much less what it will do. Theres a great chance nobody will notice it like usual but it may spark some kind of geomagnetic storm to watch for.
C3Music
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07/13/2012 03:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Right now on [link to www.spaceweather.com] the solar wind is at -9999.9??????????????? Is this sort of like the water being pulled out to sea before a tsunami?? loooks really freaky seeing that.
paranoid
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 03:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Right now on [link to www.spaceweather.com] the solar wind is at -9999.9??????????????? Is this sort of like the water being pulled out to sea before a tsunami?? loooks really freaky seeing that.
paranoid
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


They give wrong data to confuse and ensure you dont depend on them for reliable info. Thats their intention and it will be going forward as well.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 03:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
Farside Cme?
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 04:00 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ha Ha

Well I think I remember us getting hit like this last year after the Fukishima nightmare. Being it's a big one but only one we will be okay.

Anyone else?
 Quoting: finley


People seem to be overreacting to the size. We had some large hits earlier this year.

Most of the time a single CME isn't cause for alarm, carrington was two.

The speed of this one is also low compared to the theorized carrington speed (2000kms+) compared to this ones 1,400.

We get hit by large 1800s all the time with no ill effects, but anyone trying to tell you anything for certain is lieing to you.

We don't even know exactly when it will hit much less what it will do. Theres a great chance nobody will notice it like usual but it may spark some kind of geomagnetic storm to watch for.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17552144


It is moving faster than the predicted speed of 1,400.
In the images posted above you can see the CME has already blown past Mercury by 01:00UTC but in the NASA simulation Mercury isn't due to get impacted until about 12:00UTC.

So it's about 12 hours ahead of where it should be if it was moving at 1,400. Maybe somebody can calculate what that means the actual speed really is.
C3Music
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07/13/2012 04:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


Probably 1515 relieving itself away from us now that it's not being "controlled"... Dunno but Hugh you really got me thinking about that when you posed that quandary about 1515 pages ago
Hugh M Eye

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07/13/2012 04:02 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi hugh I'm still here. Hey, this cme is really hugh. Have you seen a bigger one hit us directly? Didn't we have some this big last year? what say you?
 Quoting: finley


Good Morning Finley! The biggest geomagnetic storm in my recollection was back in October (24th I think);. That was caused by filament eruption and was supposed to be maybe a "glancing blow"; however aurora were seen in Arkansas.

One of the fastest CMEs was the one in early March when the CME I posted a pic of earlier slammed the Earth, but good. The Bz stayed positive and we escaped any major problems. But the proton storm disabled the ACE data flow and the NICT simulation went down with it. The NASA models also went haywire as everything uses the ACE data for real-time models and simulations. When it comes to models and sims-DON'T BELIEVE EVERYTHING YOU SEE.

PEACE.
seeds
mpause1
mag2015
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 04:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ha Ha

Well I think I remember us getting hit like this last year after the Fukishima nightmare. Being it's a big one but only one we will be okay.

Anyone else?
 Quoting: finley


People seem to be overreacting to the size. We had some large hits earlier this year.

Most of the time a single CME isn't cause for alarm, carrington was two.

The speed of this one is also low compared to the theorized carrington speed (2000kms+) compared to this ones 1,400.

We get hit by large 1800s all the time with no ill effects, but anyone trying to tell you anything for certain is lieing to you.

We don't even know exactly when it will hit much less what it will do. Theres a great chance nobody will notice it like usual but it may spark some kind of geomagnetic storm to watch for.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17552144


It is moving faster than the predicted speed of 1,400.
In the images posted above you can see the CME has already blown past Mercury by 01:00UTC but in the NASA simulation Mercury isn't due to get impacted until about 12:00UTC.

So it's about 12 hours ahead of where it should be if it was moving at 1,400. Maybe somebody can calculate what that means the actual speed really is.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7546576

2100 km/s
[link to www.wolframalpha.com]
C3Music
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07/13/2012 04:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Right now on [link to www.spaceweather.com] the solar wind is at -9999.9??????????????? Is this sort of like the water being pulled out to sea before a tsunami?? loooks really freaky seeing that.
paranoid
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


They give wrong data to confuse and ensure you dont depend on them for reliable info. Thats their intention and it will be going forward as well.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2031276


It's back reading normal again... Makes me wonder if we had a pulse on our magnetosphere from the dark side like we did in March. Can someone pull that data and see if it happened again? Oh and I took a screenshot of the -9999.9 solar wind
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 04:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ha Ha

Well I think I remember us getting hit like this last year after the Fukishima nightmare. Being it's a big one but only one we will be okay.

Anyone else?
 Quoting: finley


People seem to be overreacting to the size. We had some large hits earlier this year.

Most of the time a single CME isn't cause for alarm, carrington was two.

The speed of this one is also low compared to the theorized carrington speed (2000kms+) compared to this ones 1,400.

We get hit by large 1800s all the time with no ill effects, but anyone trying to tell you anything for certain is lieing to you.

We don't even know exactly when it will hit much less what it will do. Theres a great chance nobody will notice it like usual but it may spark some kind of geomagnetic storm to watch for.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17552144


It is moving faster than the predicted speed of 1,400.
In the images posted above you can see the CME has already blown past Mercury by 01:00UTC but in the NASA simulation Mercury isn't due to get impacted until about 12:00UTC.

So it's about 12 hours ahead of where it should be if it was moving at 1,400. Maybe somebody can calculate what that means the actual speed really is.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7546576

2100 km/s
[link to www.wolframalpha.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872

if my math is correct that means it should hit earth 20 hours after the initial ejection

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