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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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07/13/2012 03:12 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This CME is moving really fast. I have been waiting for Stereo B HI1 to update, but nada since 23:18 UT on the 12th. AARRGHH! They have been updating Ahead HI1 though and it has tore past Mercury and almost across the view of HI1
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Ahead HI2 isn't going to be of much use as it is looking at this globular section of our galaxy at the moment.

If the NASA/CCMC Cone models are anywhere close to being right(and I think they are), this CME is going to hit fast and hard. The models have it arriving with the density maxed out while still cruising at over 800 km/s. This should make for a big IP shock/large deviation.

I will leave you guys with dreams of Auroras dancing in your heads. Gnite!


 Quoting: tomasgod1


Just WOW, I'm just speechless for a moment now......
gasp

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 07/13/2012 03:13 AM
Hugh M Eye

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07/13/2012 03:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Oh yeah I just finished reading a book called "A Distant Eden". It's about how a family deals with a CME bringing down the grid. It was very good and had a lot of tips in it that I didn't think about. It was definitely worth the 99 cents. I'm not the author and have no ties to this book. I just thought that since this thread is about such events many of you would like to read it. Have any of you read it?
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


Thanks, man, I'll definitely keep an eye out for it. I didn't know they still had 99cent sci-fi novels. I used to own a Philip K. Dick novel called EYE IN THE SKY from the early sixties and the cover-price was only 35cents.....another indication of our enslavement (the cost I mean).


endathand
Hugh M Eye

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07/13/2012 03:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey, NerdRage and India, and fellow insomniacs...WAKE UP! I'm all alone here at this hour,LOL. Ever since FUKUSHIMA, my biorhythms have been turning Japanese, ie., insomniac, haha.

takecover!
finley

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07/13/2012 03:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi hugh I'm still here. Hey, this cme is really hugh. Have you seen a bigger one hit us directly? Didn't we have some this big last year? what say you?
C3Music
User ID: 16136592
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07/13/2012 03:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Oh yeah I just finished reading a book called "A Distant Eden". It's about how a family deals with a CME bringing down the grid. It was very good and had a lot of tips in it that I didn't think about. It was definitely worth the 99 cents. I'm not the author and have no ties to this book. I just thought that since this thread is about such events many of you would like to read it. Have any of you read it?
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


Thanks, man, I'll definitely keep an eye out for it. I didn't know they still had 99cent sci-fi novels. I used to own a Philip K. Dick novel called EYE IN THE SKY from the early sixties and the cover-price was only 35cents.....another indication of our enslavement (the cost I mean).


:endathand:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I'm still here as well, the book is on kindle, forgot to mention that. She looks like she wants to climb, but really we never know. I guess we are night patrol.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 03:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Hugh, looking out for your expert commentary on the CME which is about to hit us. What is your view? Has a similar one hit us ?
finley

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07/13/2012 03:42 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ha Ha

Well I think I remember us getting hit like this last year after the Fukishima nightmare. Being it's a big one but only one we will be okay.

Anyone else?

Im finally tired. Good-night out there.stoner

Last Edited by finley on 07/13/2012 03:46 AM
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 03:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This CME is moving really fast. I have been waiting for Stereo B HI1 to update, but nada since 23:18 UT on the 12th. AARRGHH! They have been updating Ahead HI1 though and it has tore past Mercury and almost across the view of HI1
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Ahead HI2 isn't going to be of much use as it is looking at this globular section of our galaxy at the moment.

If the NASA/CCMC Cone models are anywhere close to being right(and I think they are), this CME is going to hit fast and hard. The models have it arriving with the density maxed out while still cruising at over 800 km/s. This should make for a big IP shock/large deviation.

I will leave you guys with dreams of Auroras dancing in your heads. Gnite!


 Quoting: tomasgod1


You are right, it seems to be about 10-12 hours faster than the simulation.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 03:49 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This CME is moving really fast. I have been waiting for Stereo B HI1 to update, but nada since 23:18 UT on the 12th. AARRGHH! They have been updating Ahead HI1 though and it has tore past Mercury and almost across the view of HI1
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Ahead HI2 isn't going to be of much use as it is looking at this globular section of our galaxy at the moment.

If the NASA/CCMC Cone models are anywhere close to being right(and I think they are), this CME is going to hit fast and hard. The models have it arriving with the density maxed out while still cruising at over 800 km/s. This should make for a big IP shock/large deviation.

I will leave you guys with dreams of Auroras dancing in your heads. Gnite!


 Quoting: tomasgod1


You are right, it seems to be about 10-12 hours faster than the simulation.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7546576

Where is earth in that pic?
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
More pics
CME moving VERY fast
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 03:49 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ha Ha

Well I think I remember us getting hit like this last year after the Fukishima nightmare. Being it's a big one but only one we will be okay.

Anyone else?
 Quoting: finley


People seem to be overreacting to the size. We had some large hits earlier this year.

Most of the time a single CME isn't cause for alarm, carrington was two.

The speed of this one is also low compared to the theorized carrington speed (2000kms+) compared to this ones 1,400.

We get hit by large 1800s all the time with no ill effects, but anyone trying to tell you anything for certain is lieing to you.

We don't even know exactly when it will hit much less what it will do. Theres a great chance nobody will notice it like usual but it may spark some kind of geomagnetic storm to watch for.
C3Music
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07/13/2012 03:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Right now on [link to www.spaceweather.com] the solar wind is at -9999.9??????????????? Is this sort of like the water being pulled out to sea before a tsunami?? loooks really freaky seeing that.
paranoid
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 03:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Right now on [link to www.spaceweather.com] the solar wind is at -9999.9??????????????? Is this sort of like the water being pulled out to sea before a tsunami?? loooks really freaky seeing that.
paranoid
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


They give wrong data to confuse and ensure you dont depend on them for reliable info. Thats their intention and it will be going forward as well.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 03:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
Farside Cme?
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 04:00 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ha Ha

Well I think I remember us getting hit like this last year after the Fukishima nightmare. Being it's a big one but only one we will be okay.

Anyone else?
 Quoting: finley


People seem to be overreacting to the size. We had some large hits earlier this year.

Most of the time a single CME isn't cause for alarm, carrington was two.

The speed of this one is also low compared to the theorized carrington speed (2000kms+) compared to this ones 1,400.

We get hit by large 1800s all the time with no ill effects, but anyone trying to tell you anything for certain is lieing to you.

We don't even know exactly when it will hit much less what it will do. Theres a great chance nobody will notice it like usual but it may spark some kind of geomagnetic storm to watch for.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17552144


It is moving faster than the predicted speed of 1,400.
In the images posted above you can see the CME has already blown past Mercury by 01:00UTC but in the NASA simulation Mercury isn't due to get impacted until about 12:00UTC.

So it's about 12 hours ahead of where it should be if it was moving at 1,400. Maybe somebody can calculate what that means the actual speed really is.
C3Music
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07/13/2012 04:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


Probably 1515 relieving itself away from us now that it's not being "controlled"... Dunno but Hugh you really got me thinking about that when you posed that quandary about 1515 pages ago
Hugh M Eye

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07/13/2012 04:02 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi hugh I'm still here. Hey, this cme is really hugh. Have you seen a bigger one hit us directly? Didn't we have some this big last year? what say you?
 Quoting: finley


Good Morning Finley! The biggest geomagnetic storm in my recollection was back in October (24th I think);. That was caused by filament eruption and was supposed to be maybe a "glancing blow"; however aurora were seen in Arkansas.

One of the fastest CMEs was the one in early March when the CME I posted a pic of earlier slammed the Earth, but good. The Bz stayed positive and we escaped any major problems. But the proton storm disabled the ACE data flow and the NICT simulation went down with it. The NASA models also went haywire as everything uses the ACE data for real-time models and simulations. When it comes to models and sims-DON'T BELIEVE EVERYTHING YOU SEE.

PEACE.
seeds
mpause1
mag2015
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 04:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ha Ha

Well I think I remember us getting hit like this last year after the Fukishima nightmare. Being it's a big one but only one we will be okay.

Anyone else?
 Quoting: finley


People seem to be overreacting to the size. We had some large hits earlier this year.

Most of the time a single CME isn't cause for alarm, carrington was two.

The speed of this one is also low compared to the theorized carrington speed (2000kms+) compared to this ones 1,400.

We get hit by large 1800s all the time with no ill effects, but anyone trying to tell you anything for certain is lieing to you.

We don't even know exactly when it will hit much less what it will do. Theres a great chance nobody will notice it like usual but it may spark some kind of geomagnetic storm to watch for.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17552144


It is moving faster than the predicted speed of 1,400.
In the images posted above you can see the CME has already blown past Mercury by 01:00UTC but in the NASA simulation Mercury isn't due to get impacted until about 12:00UTC.

So it's about 12 hours ahead of where it should be if it was moving at 1,400. Maybe somebody can calculate what that means the actual speed really is.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7546576

2100 km/s
[link to www.wolframalpha.com]
C3Music
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07/13/2012 04:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Right now on [link to www.spaceweather.com] the solar wind is at -9999.9??????????????? Is this sort of like the water being pulled out to sea before a tsunami?? loooks really freaky seeing that.
paranoid
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


They give wrong data to confuse and ensure you dont depend on them for reliable info. Thats their intention and it will be going forward as well.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2031276


It's back reading normal again... Makes me wonder if we had a pulse on our magnetosphere from the dark side like we did in March. Can someone pull that data and see if it happened again? Oh and I took a screenshot of the -9999.9 solar wind
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 04:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ha Ha

Well I think I remember us getting hit like this last year after the Fukishima nightmare. Being it's a big one but only one we will be okay.

Anyone else?
 Quoting: finley


People seem to be overreacting to the size. We had some large hits earlier this year.

Most of the time a single CME isn't cause for alarm, carrington was two.

The speed of this one is also low compared to the theorized carrington speed (2000kms+) compared to this ones 1,400.

We get hit by large 1800s all the time with no ill effects, but anyone trying to tell you anything for certain is lieing to you.

We don't even know exactly when it will hit much less what it will do. Theres a great chance nobody will notice it like usual but it may spark some kind of geomagnetic storm to watch for.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17552144


It is moving faster than the predicted speed of 1,400.
In the images posted above you can see the CME has already blown past Mercury by 01:00UTC but in the NASA simulation Mercury isn't due to get impacted until about 12:00UTC.

So it's about 12 hours ahead of where it should be if it was moving at 1,400. Maybe somebody can calculate what that means the actual speed really is.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7546576

2100 km/s
[link to www.wolframalpha.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872

if my math is correct that means it should hit earth 20 hours after the initial ejection
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 04:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ha Ha

Well I think I remember us getting hit like this last year after the Fukishima nightmare. Being it's a big one but only one we will be okay.

Anyone else?
 Quoting: finley


People seem to be overreacting to the size. We had some large hits earlier this year.

Most of the time a single CME isn't cause for alarm, carrington was two.

The speed of this one is also low compared to the theorized carrington speed (2000kms+) compared to this ones 1,400.

We get hit by large 1800s all the time with no ill effects, but anyone trying to tell you anything for certain is lieing to you.

We don't even know exactly when it will hit much less what it will do. Theres a great chance nobody will notice it like usual but it may spark some kind of geomagnetic storm to watch for.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17552144


It is moving faster than the predicted speed of 1,400.
In the images posted above you can see the CME has already blown past Mercury by 01:00UTC but in the NASA simulation Mercury isn't due to get impacted until about 12:00UTC.

So it's about 12 hours ahead of where it should be if it was moving at 1,400. Maybe somebody can calculate what that means the actual speed really is.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7546576

2100 km/s
[link to www.wolframalpha.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


If that is right, then the CME should be classified as a Type R - Rare.
nerdrage88sasr

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07/13/2012 04:09 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey, NerdRage and India, and fellow insomniacs...WAKE UP! I'm all alone here at this hour,LOL. Ever since FUKUSHIMA, my biorhythms have been turning Japanese, ie., insomniac, haha.

takecover!
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


lol, heya Hugh...guests here atm...trying to be nice and nt ignore them, but trying to catch up on news when i can....worried about another X -Flare going off in the next few hours....the impact of two would NOT be good...
will catch up when i can (guests outside with wife atm) ...im a very very sneaky man...lol
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 04:09 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


People seem to be overreacting to the size. We had some large hits earlier this year.

Most of the time a single CME isn't cause for alarm, carrington was two.

The speed of this one is also low compared to the theorized carrington speed (2000kms+) compared to this ones 1,400.

We get hit by large 1800s all the time with no ill effects, but anyone trying to tell you anything for certain is lieing to you.

We don't even know exactly when it will hit much less what it will do. Theres a great chance nobody will notice it like usual but it may spark some kind of geomagnetic storm to watch for.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17552144


It is moving faster than the predicted speed of 1,400.
In the images posted above you can see the CME has already blown past Mercury by 01:00UTC but in the NASA simulation Mercury isn't due to get impacted until about 12:00UTC.

So it's about 12 hours ahead of where it should be if it was moving at 1,400. Maybe somebody can calculate what that means the actual speed really is.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7546576

2100 km/s
[link to www.wolframalpha.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872

if my math is correct that means it should hit earth 20 hours after the initial ejection
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872

five hours from now
hiding
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 04:12 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
will someone please expain why I'm wrong
Hugh M Eye

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07/13/2012 04:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Right now on [link to www.spaceweather.com] the solar wind is at -9999.9??????????????? Is this sort of like the water being pulled out to sea before a tsunami?? loooks really freaky seeing that.
paranoid
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


They give wrong data to confuse and ensure you dont depend on them for reliable info. Thats their intention and it will be going forward as well.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2031276


It's back reading normal again... Makes me wonder if we had a pulse on our magnetosphere from the dark side like we did in March. Can someone pull that data and see if it happened again? Oh and I took a screenshot of the -9999.9 solar wind
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


More like malfunctioning chimpanzees which dominate the civil service. I'm almost certain that spaceweather.com is a "privatized" PR firm for NASA & NOAA or else run by an ex-civil servant out to make a buck. Either way, it's milk-toast and consistently hours or days behind this thread. When it comes to solar events, my friends, WE ARE THE TIP-OF-TTHE-SPEAR!

I must crash now, but I leave you early-risers with a song........



[link to www.youtube.com]
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
will someone please expain why I'm wrong
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


You are using stereo images to justify a 50% velocity increase and therefore a prediction time. Changing the CME to rare type and making it the fastest I've heard of recently because of where you noticed mercury is in a picture.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
another pic
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 04:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
will someone please expain why I'm wrong
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


You are using stereo images to justify a 50% velocity increase and therefore a prediction time. Changing the CME to rare type and making it the fastest I've heard of recently because of where you noticed mercury is in a picture.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17552144

I see what you mean
Thanks hf
Luisport

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07/13/2012 04:26 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
it's rising a bit...
Isis7

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07/13/2012 04:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Proton Chart from Artis

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 04:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
will someone please expain why I'm wrong
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


You are using stereo images to justify a 50% velocity increase and therefore a prediction time. Changing the CME to rare type and making it the fastest I've heard of recently because of where you noticed mercury is in a picture.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17552144


stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/where.shtml

You can see the position of Stereo A there.

You can see Mercury here : [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

The CME has already beyond it at 01:00UTC

Well ahead of the simulation : [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]


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