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SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 04:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
will someone please expain why I'm wrong
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


You are using stereo images to justify a 50% velocity increase and therefore a prediction time. Changing the CME to rare type and making it the fastest I've heard of recently because of where you noticed mercury is in a picture.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17552144


stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/where.shtml

You can see the position of Stereo A there.

You can see Mercury here : [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

The CME has already beyond it at 01:00UTC

Well ahead of the simulation : [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7546576

It's an illusion based on the angle.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 05:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
Luisport

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07/13/2012 05:28 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
X-Class Solar Flare Causes Radio Outages! Thursday's flare has already caused what NOAA classifies as an R3 radio blackout, meaning GPS satellite signals "degraded for about an hour" and there was a "wide area blackout of high frequency radio communication" on Earth.

According to Chamberlain, the region from which the flare erupted was on the part of the sun facing Earth, so it could potentially cause temporary power outages and further communication systems disruptions. He said the observatory would know more within a few hours if Earth is likely to be impacted.

On July 6, a similarly sized flare caused no significant problems on Earth. Thursday's flare, classified as an X1.4, was much smaller than the X5.4 flare that erupted on March 7 and caused temporary outages of military satellites.
[link to www.usnews.com]
Luisport

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07/13/2012 05:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
x-ray jump... [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 05:46 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Thursday's flare, classified as an X1.4, was much smaller than the X5.4 flare that erupted on March 7 and caused temporary outages of military satellites.
[link to www.usnews.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


Lets hope for constant >=X5.4 level for peace!
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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07/13/2012 06:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
 Quoting: TS66


And good morning to you as well---and everybody else too...TGIF
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 07:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
 Quoting: TS66


And good morning to you as well---and everybody else too...TGIF
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Good morning!
shenue

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07/13/2012 08:08 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Good Morning
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 08:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
X-ray flux rising.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 08:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Just a C1.5, nevermind.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 08:25 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Every spike counts .... don't forget, this last X was a rebound C, that went to M, that went to X.

The way these sunspots are connected, one flare could set off another.

Thanks for the heads up hf
shenue

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07/13/2012 08:49 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
This CME is moving really fast. I have been waiting for Stereo B HI1 to update, but nada since 23:18 UT on the 12th. AARRGHH! They have been updating Ahead HI1 though and it has tore past Mercury and almost across the view of HI1
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Ahead HI2 isn't going to be of much use as it is looking at this globular section of our galaxy at the moment.

If the NASA/CCMC Cone models are anywhere close to being right(and I think they are), this CME is going to hit fast and hard. The models have it arriving with the density maxed out while still cruising at over 800 km/s. This should make for a big IP shock/large deviation.

I will leave you guys with dreams of Auroras dancing in your heads. Gnite!


 Quoting: tomasgod1


Thank You for that amazing video!
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
nerdrage88sasr

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07/13/2012 09:45 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
hmmmm....within 3hrs .. BOHICA!
just a hunch
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
zacksavage

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07/13/2012 09:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
 Quoting: TS66


Good Morning TS,...Everyone.

Okay, so it's friday the 13th and I'm just sitting here and sipping some Starbucks.

Oh,...and waiting for the magnetosphere to get spanked by the sun God.

:)

Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
shenue

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07/13/2012 10:01 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
 Quoting: TS66


Good Morning TS,...Everyone.

Okay, so it's friday the 13th and I'm just sitting here and sipping some Starbucks.

Oh,...and waiting for the magnetosphere to get spanked by the sun God.

:)

Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


spanked?...spanked?... Now that got my attention. lol

I'll tell you what else got my attention. That CME barrelling towards us.
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 10:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
 Quoting: TS66


Good Morning TS,...Everyone.

Okay, so it's friday the 13th and I'm just sitting here and sipping some Starbucks.

Oh,...and waiting for the magnetosphere to get spanked by the sun God.

:)

Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


spanked?...spanked?... Now that got my attention. lol

I'll tell you what else got my attention. That CME barrelling towards us.
 Quoting: shenue


Hey there 88 ... so glad to see everyone today smile_kiss

Hey Shenue, long time no see ..

I'll go with spanked any day over beat !!! hf
zacksavage

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07/13/2012 10:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
spanked?...spanked?... Now that got my attention. lol

I'll tell you what else got my attention. That CME barrelling towards us.
 Quoting: shenue


Hey shenue,...

Barrelling??? Bbbbbarrelling???

Oh dear,...that doesn't sound good.

Hope you are well.


Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
shenue

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07/13/2012 10:18 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
 Quoting: TS66


Good Morning TS,...Everyone.

Okay, so it's friday the 13th and I'm just sitting here and sipping some Starbucks.

Oh,...and waiting for the magnetosphere to get spanked by the sun God.

:)

Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


spanked?...spanked?... Now that got my attention. lol

I'll tell you what else got my attention. That CME barrelling towards us.
 Quoting: shenue


Hey there 88 ... so glad to see everyone today smile_kiss

Hey Shenue, long time no see ..

I'll go with spanked any day over beat !!! hf
 Quoting: TS66


Hi TS66. Hope you are well. I'm here every day, but usually don't post more than a "good morning". I don't have the knowledge to be able to contribute anything meaningful to this thread. But I definitely come here every day and I appreciate all the dedication and information that is shared here by those who understand the sun a lot better than I.
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
shenue

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07/13/2012 10:18 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
spanked?...spanked?... Now that got my attention. lol

I'll tell you what else got my attention. That CME barrelling towards us.
 Quoting: shenue


Hey shenue,...

Barrelling??? Bbbbbarrelling???

Oh dear,...that doesn't sound good.

Hope you are well.


Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


Hi Zack, I hope you are well, too.
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
nerdrage88sasr

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Australia
07/13/2012 10:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
 Quoting: TS66


Good Morning TS,...Everyone.

Okay, so it's friday the 13th and I'm just sitting here and sipping some Starbucks.

Oh,...and waiting for the magnetosphere to get spanked by the sun God.

:)

Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


spanked?...spanked?... Now that got my attention. lol

I'll tell you what else got my attention. That CME barrelling towards us.
 Quoting: shenue


Hey there 88 ... so glad to see everyone today smile_kiss

Hey Shenue, long time no see ..

I'll go with spanked any day over beat !!! hf
 Quoting: TS66


Hey all....damn, you guys posted ALOT in a couple of days....tantrum

Mid-atlantic anomoly....wonder if it will increase more due to this big X?...i got a feeling it will..as stated before..i will bring the tomato plants in if we get another X in the next 2-3 hrs...
Peace all
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
amywood71605

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07/13/2012 10:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
So what's the updated/latest forecast for when we can expect the CME to arrive? I'm still trying to learn, months of reading this thread and I'm still not anywhere near as knowledgeable as you guys. =)
"Live each day like it's your last, love like you've never been hurt, and dance like no one is watching."

GO PATS!!
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 10:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
So what's the updated/latest forecast for when we can expect the CME to arrive? I'm still trying to learn, months of reading this thread and I'm still not anywhere near as knowledgeable as you guys. =)
 Quoting: amywood71605


This is the best source [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] . Nin has it coming in on the 14th

And the simulation

[link to www.solarham.net]
zacksavage

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07/13/2012 10:43 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
So what's the updated/latest forecast for when we can expect the CME to arrive? I'm still trying to learn, months of reading this thread and I'm still not anywhere near as knowledgeable as you guys. =)
 Quoting: amywood71605


This is the best source [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] . Nin has it coming in on the 14th
 Quoting: TS66


I thought Tom mentioned a few pages back,..that it was coming faster than expected TS???

Perhaps that even the O classification should be moved to rare someone said.


1dunno1

Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 10:45 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
So what's the updated/latest forecast for when we can expect the CME to arrive? I'm still trying to learn, months of reading this thread and I'm still not anywhere near as knowledgeable as you guys. =)
 Quoting: amywood71605


This is the best source [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] . Nin has it coming in on the 14th
 Quoting: TS66


I thought Tom mentioned a few pages back,..that it was coming faster than expected TS???

Perhaps that even the O classification should be moved to rare someone said.


1dunno1

Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


I think they have it at +/- 7 hrs, with it expected at 13:00 UTC on the 14th

They keep updating on arrival time, but each source has it's own time frame

iSwa has:

Event Issue Date: 2012-07-13 07:21:45.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-07-14 09:17:23.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 8 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Space Weather has:

hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.

[link to spaceweather.com]

Enlil has 13:00 UTC :

[link to www.solarham.net]



These space agencies don't have my full confidence.

When Nin is sure I'm sure she will update us.
mtn_mang

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07/13/2012 10:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
[link to www.facebook.com]

check out this illustration of expected kp index for cme impact in the US. am i reading this right? says there could be aurora between yellow and red line
amywood71605

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07/13/2012 10:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Thanks for the responses =) Hoping for a chance to see the aurora =)
"Live each day like it's your last, love like you've never been hurt, and dance like no one is watching."

GO PATS!!
zacksavage

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07/13/2012 10:53 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
I think they have it at +/- 7 hrs, with it expected at 13:00 UTC on the 14th

The keep updating on arrival time, but each source has it's own time frame
 Quoting: TS66


You know,...this is all pretty amazing isn't it TS? To access all these orbiting sensors and see such clear images of solar ejections in real time. Never in the history of this planet, that we are aware of,...has this been possible.

We live in the NOW.

Friday the 13th, 20freaking12 we gather to watch and wait.

Hope your day goes well.

Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 10:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Bradford probs now 67/69.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 11:02 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
I think they have it at +/- 7 hrs, with it expected at 13:00 UTC on the 14th

The keep updating on arrival time, but each source has it's own time frame
 Quoting: TS66


You know,...this is all pretty amazing isn't it TS? To access all these orbiting sensors and see such clear images of solar ejections in real time. Never in the history of this planet, that we are aware of,...has this been possible.

We live in the NOW.

Friday the 13th, 20freaking12 we gather to watch and wait.

Hope your day goes well.

Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


You're right, and it is absolutely amazing. I never imagined any such technology in my time. Not only because there are satellites orbiting and collecting data, but that I can access that data in my own home. Truly a great time to be alive.

Have a wonderful Z hf
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 11:06 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
[link to www.facebook.com]

check out this illustration of expected kp index for cme impact in the US. am i reading this right? says there could be aurora between yellow and red line
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Awesome find, never saw that map before. I'm not sure about auroras in those areas. They actually reflect the potential strength of the expected geomagnetic storm for each area.

I'm in upstate NY (well mid hudson valley) and a K7-9 is nothing to sneeze at !!!

Here's a link that explains each storm level/category

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


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