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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 7546576
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07/13/2012 04:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ha Ha

Well I think I remember us getting hit like this last year after the Fukishima nightmare. Being it's a big one but only one we will be okay.

Anyone else?
 Quoting: finley


People seem to be overreacting to the size. We had some large hits earlier this year.

Most of the time a single CME isn't cause for alarm, carrington was two.

The speed of this one is also low compared to the theorized carrington speed (2000kms+) compared to this ones 1,400.

We get hit by large 1800s all the time with no ill effects, but anyone trying to tell you anything for certain is lieing to you.

We don't even know exactly when it will hit much less what it will do. Theres a great chance nobody will notice it like usual but it may spark some kind of geomagnetic storm to watch for.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17552144


It is moving faster than the predicted speed of 1,400.
In the images posted above you can see the CME has already blown past Mercury by 01:00UTC but in the NASA simulation Mercury isn't due to get impacted until about 12:00UTC.

So it's about 12 hours ahead of where it should be if it was moving at 1,400. Maybe somebody can calculate what that means the actual speed really is.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7546576

2100 km/s
[link to www.wolframalpha.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


If that is right, then the CME should be classified as a Type R - Rare.
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 19662783
Australia
07/13/2012 04:09 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey, NerdRage and India, and fellow insomniacs...WAKE UP! I'm all alone here at this hour,LOL. Ever since FUKUSHIMA, my biorhythms have been turning Japanese, ie., insomniac, haha.

takecover!
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


lol, heya Hugh...guests here atm...trying to be nice and nt ignore them, but trying to catch up on news when i can....worried about another X -Flare going off in the next few hours....the impact of two would NOT be good...
will catch up when i can (guests outside with wife atm) ...im a very very sneaky man...lol
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 2159872
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07/13/2012 04:09 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


People seem to be overreacting to the size. We had some large hits earlier this year.

Most of the time a single CME isn't cause for alarm, carrington was two.

The speed of this one is also low compared to the theorized carrington speed (2000kms+) compared to this ones 1,400.

We get hit by large 1800s all the time with no ill effects, but anyone trying to tell you anything for certain is lieing to you.

We don't even know exactly when it will hit much less what it will do. Theres a great chance nobody will notice it like usual but it may spark some kind of geomagnetic storm to watch for.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17552144


It is moving faster than the predicted speed of 1,400.
In the images posted above you can see the CME has already blown past Mercury by 01:00UTC but in the NASA simulation Mercury isn't due to get impacted until about 12:00UTC.

So it's about 12 hours ahead of where it should be if it was moving at 1,400. Maybe somebody can calculate what that means the actual speed really is.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7546576

2100 km/s
[link to www.wolframalpha.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872

if my math is correct that means it should hit earth 20 hours after the initial ejection
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872

five hours from now
hiding
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 04:12 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
will someone please expain why I'm wrong
Hugh M Eye

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07/13/2012 04:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Right now on [link to www.spaceweather.com] the solar wind is at -9999.9??????????????? Is this sort of like the water being pulled out to sea before a tsunami?? loooks really freaky seeing that.
paranoid
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


They give wrong data to confuse and ensure you dont depend on them for reliable info. Thats their intention and it will be going forward as well.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2031276


It's back reading normal again... Makes me wonder if we had a pulse on our magnetosphere from the dark side like we did in March. Can someone pull that data and see if it happened again? Oh and I took a screenshot of the -9999.9 solar wind
 Quoting: C3Music 16136592


More like malfunctioning chimpanzees which dominate the civil service. I'm almost certain that spaceweather.com is a "privatized" PR firm for NASA & NOAA or else run by an ex-civil servant out to make a buck. Either way, it's milk-toast and consistently hours or days behind this thread. When it comes to solar events, my friends, WE ARE THE TIP-OF-TTHE-SPEAR!

I must crash now, but I leave you early-risers with a song........



[link to www.youtube.com]
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 04:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
will someone please expain why I'm wrong
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


You are using stereo images to justify a 50% velocity increase and therefore a prediction time. Changing the CME to rare type and making it the fastest I've heard of recently because of where you noticed mercury is in a picture.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 04:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
another pic
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 04:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
will someone please expain why I'm wrong
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


You are using stereo images to justify a 50% velocity increase and therefore a prediction time. Changing the CME to rare type and making it the fastest I've heard of recently because of where you noticed mercury is in a picture.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17552144

I see what you mean
Thanks hf
Luisport

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Portugal
07/13/2012 04:26 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
it's rising a bit...
Isis7
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07/13/2012 04:29 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Proton Chart from Artis

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 04:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
will someone please expain why I'm wrong
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


You are using stereo images to justify a 50% velocity increase and therefore a prediction time. Changing the CME to rare type and making it the fastest I've heard of recently because of where you noticed mercury is in a picture.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17552144


stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/where.shtml

You can see the position of Stereo A there.

You can see Mercury here : [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

The CME has already beyond it at 01:00UTC

Well ahead of the simulation : [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 04:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
will someone please expain why I'm wrong
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


You are using stereo images to justify a 50% velocity increase and therefore a prediction time. Changing the CME to rare type and making it the fastest I've heard of recently because of where you noticed mercury is in a picture.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17552144


stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/where.shtml

You can see the position of Stereo A there.

You can see Mercury here : [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

The CME has already beyond it at 01:00UTC

Well ahead of the simulation : [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7546576

It's an illusion based on the angle.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 05:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
Luisport

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07/13/2012 05:28 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
X-Class Solar Flare Causes Radio Outages! Thursday's flare has already caused what NOAA classifies as an R3 radio blackout, meaning GPS satellite signals "degraded for about an hour" and there was a "wide area blackout of high frequency radio communication" on Earth.

According to Chamberlain, the region from which the flare erupted was on the part of the sun facing Earth, so it could potentially cause temporary power outages and further communication systems disruptions. He said the observatory would know more within a few hours if Earth is likely to be impacted.

On July 6, a similarly sized flare caused no significant problems on Earth. Thursday's flare, classified as an X1.4, was much smaller than the X5.4 flare that erupted on March 7 and caused temporary outages of military satellites.
[link to www.usnews.com]
Luisport

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07/13/2012 05:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
x-ray jump... [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14296220
Finland
07/13/2012 05:46 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thursday's flare, classified as an X1.4, was much smaller than the X5.4 flare that erupted on March 7 and caused temporary outages of military satellites.
[link to www.usnews.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


Lets hope for constant >=X5.4 level for peace!
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

User ID: 921787
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07/13/2012 06:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
 Quoting: TS66


And good morning to you as well---and everybody else too...TGIF
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 07:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
 Quoting: TS66


And good morning to you as well---and everybody else too...TGIF
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Good morning!
shenue

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07/13/2012 08:08 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good Morning
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 08:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
X-ray flux rising.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 08:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just a C1.5, nevermind.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 08:25 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Every spike counts .... don't forget, this last X was a rebound C, that went to M, that went to X.

The way these sunspots are connected, one flare could set off another.

Thanks for the heads up hf
shenue

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07/13/2012 08:49 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This CME is moving really fast. I have been waiting for Stereo B HI1 to update, but nada since 23:18 UT on the 12th. AARRGHH! They have been updating Ahead HI1 though and it has tore past Mercury and almost across the view of HI1
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Ahead HI2 isn't going to be of much use as it is looking at this globular section of our galaxy at the moment.

If the NASA/CCMC Cone models are anywhere close to being right(and I think they are), this CME is going to hit fast and hard. The models have it arriving with the density maxed out while still cruising at over 800 km/s. This should make for a big IP shock/large deviation.

I will leave you guys with dreams of Auroras dancing in your heads. Gnite!


 Quoting: tomasgod1


Thank You for that amazing video!
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
nerdrage88sasr

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07/13/2012 09:45 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hmmmm....within 3hrs .. BOHICA!
just a hunch
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
zacksavage
~~Unbound~~

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07/13/2012 09:54 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
 Quoting: TS66


Good Morning TS,...Everyone.

Okay, so it's friday the 13th and I'm just sitting here and sipping some Starbucks.

Oh,...and waiting for the magnetosphere to get spanked by the sun God.

:)

Z
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one.

--- Albert Einstein
shenue

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07/13/2012 10:01 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
 Quoting: TS66


Good Morning TS,...Everyone.

Okay, so it's friday the 13th and I'm just sitting here and sipping some Starbucks.

Oh,...and waiting for the magnetosphere to get spanked by the sun God.

:)

Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


spanked?...spanked?... Now that got my attention. lol

I'll tell you what else got my attention. That CME barrelling towards us.
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 10:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
 Quoting: TS66


Good Morning TS,...Everyone.

Okay, so it's friday the 13th and I'm just sitting here and sipping some Starbucks.

Oh,...and waiting for the magnetosphere to get spanked by the sun God.

:)

Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


spanked?...spanked?... Now that got my attention. lol

I'll tell you what else got my attention. That CME barrelling towards us.
 Quoting: shenue


Hey there 88 ... so glad to see everyone today smile_kiss

Hey Shenue, long time no see ..

I'll go with spanked any day over beat !!! hf
zacksavage
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07/13/2012 10:07 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
spanked?...spanked?... Now that got my attention. lol

I'll tell you what else got my attention. That CME barrelling towards us.
 Quoting: shenue


Hey shenue,...

Barrelling??? Bbbbbarrelling???

Oh dear,...that doesn't sound good.

Hope you are well.


Z
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one.

--- Albert Einstein
shenue

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07/13/2012 10:18 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
 Quoting: TS66


Good Morning TS,...Everyone.

Okay, so it's friday the 13th and I'm just sitting here and sipping some Starbucks.

Oh,...and waiting for the magnetosphere to get spanked by the sun God.

:)

Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


spanked?...spanked?... Now that got my attention. lol

I'll tell you what else got my attention. That CME barrelling towards us.
 Quoting: shenue


Hey there 88 ... so glad to see everyone today smile_kiss

Hey Shenue, long time no see ..

I'll go with spanked any day over beat !!! hf
 Quoting: TS66


Hi TS66. Hope you are well. I'm here every day, but usually don't post more than a "good morning". I don't have the knowledge to be able to contribute anything meaningful to this thread. But I definitely come here every day and I appreciate all the dedication and information that is shared here by those who understand the sun a lot better than I.
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
shenue

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07/13/2012 10:18 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
spanked?...spanked?... Now that got my attention. lol

I'll tell you what else got my attention. That CME barrelling towards us.
 Quoting: shenue


Hey shenue,...

Barrelling??? Bbbbbarrelling???

Oh dear,...that doesn't sound good.

Hope you are well.


Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


Hi Zack, I hope you are well, too.
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC

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