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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Starry eyes

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07/13/2012 08:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NiN...
fact of the matter is, when that one CME does hit that will be the new age carrington event, the electric will go out right around the same time us suntards are expecting the CME arrival
and right before it hits, we will be sitting here, looking at data, talking about "when is it going to hit? oh look solar wind is picking up! Look at the density increase!"
then BAM.. lights out
and each of us will be sitting in front of our PCs, with the electric out, thinking to ourselves (and some screaming it out loud) "omg that was the one!"

Untill that very moment arrives, when were sitting in the dark with no electric, it is ALL a guessing game!

we can only look at data and images and take our best educated guess as to the speed the CME will be at when it arrives at earth, and we can only guess at how much of the mass will hit, and how compact it will be at the time it arrives

Being aware of solar events is the best thing anyone can do with the Solar max on it's way
Then at least when that day comes, when the lights go out, when you knew that CME was suposto arrive, you will know why
when 98% of the world will not
and while everyone else is stepping outside wondering "why did the electric go out?!", you will know why and be able to act, while they stand in the dark looking at the pretty auroras in the sky
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Nin....

"act" in what way? Do you mean by being prepared with supplies...etc?
 Quoting: shenue


Bug out, Bug in, hide, get home. You do not want to be seen when shtf. If home, trash it once raiding starts so it looks like it has already been looted. Hide your stuff in false walls, in ground. Get out of cities if possible. This is what you need to plan so you know how to "act"
 Quoting: whiteangel


Deep breaths honey .... let's wait and see what's going on first before you get yourself too riled up. hf
 Quoting: TS66


We will have to wait and see and when and if something does happen and we all lose power, I hope you all stay safe and I hope to hear from all of you as soon as power gets back on and we can communicate.

hf

Stand your ground and protect your belongings! :)
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
that is awesome to hear ^^
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Actually, it is kinda UN-nerving NiN. It is hot here in New Mexico today, the sun is white-bright withing the scattered clouds. I am sitting here reading your thread and then I hear a break in their main conversation as one women told the other it was hot because we are going to get hit with an incoming "flare" tomorrow.

The freaking cover of National Geographic for June had cover story on the sun and flares.

Clearly,...we are being sensitized to flare activity in the MSM for some reason.

2012 is here.


Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


Maybe the one that knew about the CME is a glp'r and not on of the average morans out there.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nin, go to Gabe's thread and read his last post.
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Is this serious?




Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


I've never known him to joke around about this stuff ...
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 08:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
screenshot of C3 on helioviewer @ 03:03UT

[link to oi46.tinypic.com]

'official' 03:03UT C3 image pulled from the SOHO site

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

hmm
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


Helioviewer is probably getting a mix of processed and unprocessed C3 imagery. They take out the constant background so new CMEs are more visible I believe. The background glow they are removing here is from the big guy. Same time stamps, at least at this moment...

Unprocessed from nrl.navy ...
[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]
Click "latest lasco C3"

Processed from soho ...
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Also, haven't used helioviewer much but they seem to lag behind both SDO and C2,C3 direct sites fairly often.

--
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13079166


I use Helioviewer daily and I've never seen that "background glow" before

imo it's highly unusual especially since it's appearance coincided with the so called M-flare CME which is visible on SOHO from 03:00-05:00 +
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


If you haven't seen the glow before, helioviewer must usually get processed C3 imagery. Good catch by you.

[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]
C3 mpg...
In C3 the glow is not there at 17:06, majorly there at 22:47 (big data gap). It sure looks like it's the CME from the x-flare. Either different levels of processing divide these 2 "batches" of images or they reflect the pre- and post- x-flare C3 view. The movie plays out, glow remains. Someone (gently) correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it's common for material to continue to stream from a flare after the majority of the material has already "departed" as a CME, which would contribute to the glow.

The CME rising from the north in C2 and C3 is from a farside event I believe, beginning ~2:00, upper left in stereo behind EUIV 195. An impressive wave flowing north toward the pole is show in stereo ahead beginning shortly after.
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
COR 2 ahead and behind, n=50. Both show a CME heading north with the appropriate time frame and pretty much peg it as having a northern polar region origin.

[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]
n=100
It first appears in C2 ~ 2:30, C3 ~ 4:30.

So the timing is... the glow in the south exists at least 4 hours before the CME appears in C2 heading north from a north polar region origin. Hard for me to see cause and efffect there.

But my interp could be all wrong... good catch, something I would have missed, good reason to look closer at the imagery...

--
ThaSaltineCracka

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07/13/2012 08:14 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
watching mets baseball on sny and they start showing commercials then a red banner comes on saying that the electricity has gone out in turner field in Atlanta. Solar flare related???
ThaSaltineCracka
Gerry52

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07/13/2012 08:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
October 24, 2011 auroras were seen in southern Colorado and even in NM. Guessing that if it is seen in Mexico, then that might means lights out.

Loved Nin's post - we just won't know how bad it is until it happens. For those who HATE surprises, that isn't going to make us feel better.
 Quoting: whiteangel


Might have to take a drive up to Lookout Mountain up above Denver to get out of the city lights tomorrow night.
 Quoting: Gerry52


Possibly early Sat morning.
 Quoting: whiteangel


You think? Only about a 20 min drive for me...and I love driving my mustang up Lookout Mountain Road!
I know the voices aren't real, but man do they come up with some great ideas!
Semper Fi USMC
Very much an Occams Razor kind of guy.
Bridging the gap between "It can't happen to us" and "We're all going to die".
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 08:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NASA and SWPC officials said the flare did trigger a huge eruption of solar plasma, known as a coronal mass ejection or CME, which is expected to reach Earth at 1 a.m. EDT (0500 GMT) on Saturday (July 14).

10PM PDT, tonight, Friday 7-13
Starry eyes

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07/13/2012 08:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
watching mets baseball on sny and they start showing commercials then a red banner comes on saying that the electricity has gone out in turner field in Atlanta. Solar flare related???
 Quoting: ThaSaltineCracka


Umm...I would think. My mom just said on Facebook that WV is losing power again...
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
zacksavage
~~Unbound~~

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07/13/2012 08:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I've never known him to joke around about this stuff ...
 Quoting: TS66


Interesting and troubling at the same time.

Maybe the one that knew about the CME is a glp'r and not on of the average morans out there.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1319430


I do not think so. They/MSM have been sending out warning shots for years now about the sun. Way back with Ed Dames and his kill shot it has been filtered into the public consciousness.

As you say though,...most of the public is unconscious and oblivious.



Z

Last Edited by zacksavage on 07/13/2012 08:25 PM
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 08:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Now this ...
hi Gabe

hugs
 Quoting: Isis7


Reports coming in on power outages....stadiums... malls.
Goats are scrambling to check if from local storms or not... will post when i can ...

hi Isis...
 Quoting: Gabriel




Any ideas Nin ???
El Quisqueyano

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07/13/2012 08:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Now this ...
hi Gabe

hugs
 Quoting: Isis7


Reports coming in on power outages....stadiums... malls.
Goats are scrambling to check if from local storms or not... will post when i can ...

hi Isis...
 Quoting: Gabriel




Any ideas Nin ???
 Quoting: TS66


And now this too;

Thread: 500 penguins found dead on Brazil beaches
Ollo

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07/13/2012 08:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I have been trying to keep up...but right now have a massive headache- could you explain who Gabe is and is there a link to his website?
Thanks :)
El Quisqueyano

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07/13/2012 08:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I have been trying to keep up...but right now have a massive headache- could you explain who Gabe is and is there a link to his website?
Thanks :)
 Quoting: Ollo


Thread: F.O.G. (Page 382)
Starry eyes

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07/13/2012 08:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Letting everyone know that some of WV is using Power from a grid in Pittsburgh, so that could cause more sensitive power fluctuations. At least according to my mother and the county commissioner.
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
shadasonic

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07/13/2012 08:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
October 24, 2011 auroras were seen in southern Colorado and even in NM. Guessing that if it is seen in Mexico, then that might means lights out.

Loved Nin's post - we just won't know how bad it is until it happens. For those who HATE surprises, that isn't going to make us feel better.
 Quoting: whiteangel


Might have to take a drive up to Lookout Mountain up above Denver to get out of the city lights tomorrow night.
 Quoting: Gerry52


Possibly early Sat morning.
 Quoting: whiteangel


I'm telling ya some kind of energy is coming in, the last three hours have been ENERGETIC to say the least. Nothing showing up on the charts that should be causing this ???
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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07/13/2012 08:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I have been trying to keep up...but right now have a massive headache- could you explain who Gabe is and is there a link to his website?
Thanks :)
 Quoting: Ollo


Thread: F.O.G. (Page 382)
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Thanks Q have been checking it daily, gabes goats must be lower level as the upper level probably know exactly whats up.

He's been slowly leading up to this with his little crumbs of insight

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 07/13/2012 08:32 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 08:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Current outages ???

[link to maps.google.com]

lol ... let me see what else I can find ... feel free to google hf
shadasonic

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07/13/2012 08:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Towards the end of the simulation the magnetopause is showing some action, early signs of arrival?
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Ollo

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07/13/2012 08:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I have been trying to keep up...but right now have a massive headache- could you explain who Gabe is and is there a link to his website?
Thanks :)
 Quoting: Ollo


Thread: F.O.G. (Page 382)
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


TY hf

Trying to figure out the 'goats'- are these actual goats? Sorry I'm so behind!
AkivaJeff

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07/13/2012 08:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sol keeps rumbling like a mountain ready to explode. More and more activity until he just can't hold it in any longer.
Peace be with you all if we lose contact.
Life is short...
But it's WIDE.
shadasonic

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07/13/2012 08:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I have been trying to keep up...but right now have a massive headache- could you explain who Gabe is and is there a link to his website?
Thanks :)
 Quoting: Ollo


Thread: F.O.G. (Page 382)
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


TY hf

Trying to figure out the 'goats'- are these actual goats? Sorry I'm so behind!
 Quoting: Ollo


Important people who gabe interacts with
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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07/13/2012 08:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

D- rap saturation wnt up another level
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 08:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well, I don't know about you guys, but my tub is filled, and I'm going to go read a book.

I'll check in later to see how you all are, then I'm going to get a good nights rest.

Namaste hf
ThaSaltineCracka

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07/13/2012 08:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well, I don't know about you guys, but my tub is filled, and I'm going to go read a book.

I'll check in later to see how you all are, then I'm going to get a good nights rest.

Namaste hf
 Quoting: TS66


see you later then, gnight
ThaSaltineCracka
shadasonic

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07/13/2012 08:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well, I don't know about you guys, but my tub is filled, and I'm going to go read a book.

I'll check in later to see how you all are, then I'm going to get a good nights rest.

Namaste hf
 Quoting: TS66


Namaste TS!hugs
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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07/13/2012 08:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Current outages ???

[link to maps.google.com]

lol ... let me see what else I can find ... feel free to google hf
 Quoting: TS66


[link to outagecentral.com]

No power outages at this time are in any way related to geomagnetic storms. The Kp index has been stuck at 1 for some time now. This we know is the calm before the CMEs arrival.

This pdf. may be a little dense for some, but it gives complete analysis on how grids, pipelines, railroads, etc. are affected by strong geomagnetic events. It also covers satellite vulnerabilities and more. Well worth reading as good information short-circuits all of the fear and doom born out of ignorance.

SOLAR STORM THREAT ANALYSIS:


[link to www.breadandbutterscience.com]
hiding
Hugh M Eye

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07/13/2012 09:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
According to NOAA's numbers, AR1520 has shrunk by almost a third in the past 24 hours.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 196 Issued at 0030Z on 14 Jul 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 13 Jul
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1519 S16W45 107 0050 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1520 S16W23 086 0920 Fkc 19 33 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1521 S21W34 096 0260 Eki 11 16 Beta
1522 N13W36 098 0020 Dao 04 05 Beta
1523 S27E17 046 0020 Dao 06 07 Beta

AR1520-Recent HMI image-
:1520-7/14:

AR1521 looks bigger and may produce some strong flares-
:1521HMII:
shadasonic

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07/13/2012 09:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
According to NOAA's numbers, AR1520 has shrunk by almost a third in the past 24 hours.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 196 Issued at 0030Z on 14 Jul 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 13 Jul
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1519 S16W45 107 0050 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1520 S16W23 086 0920 Fkc 19 33 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1521 S21W34 096 0260 Eki 11 16 Beta
1522 N13W36 098 0020 Dao 04 05 Beta
1523 S27E17 046 0020 Dao 06 07 Beta

AR1520-Recent HMI image-
:1520-7/14:

AR1521 looks bigger and may produce some strong flares-
:1521HMII:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thanks Hugh! I quite looking at 1521, because of the excitement over 1520, it is looking more outlined
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/13/2012 09:21 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NiN...
fact of the matter is, when that one CME does hit that will be the new age carrington event, the electric will go out right around the same time us suntards are expecting the CME arrival
and right before it hits, we will be sitting here, looking at data, talking about "when is it going to hit? oh look solar wind is picking up! Look at the density increase!"
then BAM.. lights out
and each of us will be sitting in front of our PCs, with the electric out, thinking to ourselves (and some screaming it out loud) "omg that was the one!"

Untill that very moment arrives, when were sitting in the dark with no electric, it is ALL a guessing game!

we can only look at data and images and take our best educated guess as to the speed the CME will be at when it arrives at earth, and we can only guess at how much of the mass will hit, and how compact it will be at the time it arrives

Being aware of solar events is the best thing anyone can do with the Solar max on it's way
Then at least when that day comes, when the lights go out, when you knew that CME was suposto arrive, you will know why
when 98% of the world will not
and while everyone else is stepping outside wondering "why did the electric go out?!", you will know why and be able to act, while they stand in the dark looking at the pretty auroras in the sky
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Nin....

"act" in what way? Do you mean by being prepared with supplies...etc?
 Quoting: shenue


well, act as in
what would you do if you had, lets say, a 1hr advanced warning that the grids FOR SURE were down from a CME and would not be coming back up?
1hr of this knowledge that no one around you has just yet and they would not catch on for 1hr
1hr to do whatever or go wherever or buy whatever
and to do so knowing money would be worthless the next day
so no limits
1hr before all others around you freak out
what would you do with your 1hr?
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/13/2012 09:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Crazy,...sitting in Starbucks again. Ladies at the table next to mine yacking away. About what you say?????

Solar Flare hitting tomorrow.

Word's getting out there I guess.



Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


that is awesome to hear ^^
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Nin, go to Gabe's thread and read his last post.
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


got it
thanks El Q :)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?

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We're dropping truth bombs like it's the end of days!