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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Solar Guardian

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07/14/2012 01:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
When this CME arrives will there be lights out for us here in Asia?hiding
MamaHasAwakened

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07/14/2012 01:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Its wanting to do something!
 Quoting: MamaHasAwakened


Mama is awake!
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Hi Tom!!!!

hi
RTS REDUX

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07/14/2012 01:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is this live [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] or delayed and if delayed by how long? I know it is on a 1 minute increment. Something I always meant to ask and kept forgetting.
 Quoting: whiteangel


I trusted that graph up until the time of the phantom M-flare, but since that one appeared to be a farside event I suppose I'll give it the benefit of the doubt. But add in a Sungrazing comet and I'm starting to trust NASA's limited data releases over NOAA's 'real time data'

lot's of stuff from these events are being censored imo.

not falsified as AA claims. (except for maybe NOAA)

Last Edited by RTS REDUX on 07/14/2012 01:27 AM
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/14/2012 01:25 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
stable conditions with no significant change as of right now

ACE Solar Conditions @ 05:15 UTC-
July 14, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 332.1
Density: 0.1
Bz: 0.7

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


new space weather alert issued

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 1934
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 0501 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1933
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 11 1055 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3020 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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NiNzrez (OP)

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07/14/2012 01:27 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
When this CME arrives will there be lights out for us here in Asia?hiding
 Quoting: Solar Guardian


here is the expected aurora map for your area
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
tomasgod1

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07/14/2012 01:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The IP shock is getting close! We can see the tell tell precursor signatures in the ACE particle data about the impending shock arrival.


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Hiya, T, with the SW so slow now I imagine we'll see quite a dramatic spike when this beast arrives. I think the wind speed and density will jump off the charts. What say you?

cheers
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I am expecting a large IP shock. I am monitoring the high level protons, electrons, radial velocity, and other energy channels from ACE for complex behavior; trying to get an advanced lead on it.
cheers

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 07/14/2012 01:30 AM
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NiNzrez (OP)

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07/14/2012 01:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ACE jumped up to 9.6 on the density for a sek
were close everyone
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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Solar Guardian

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07/14/2012 01:30 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
When this CME arrives will there be lights out for us here in Asia?hiding
 Quoting: Solar Guardian


here is the expected aurora map for your area
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I'm below the red line. Does that mean I'm at KP 9 level? gasp
Isis One

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07/14/2012 01:31 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well, I don't know about you guys, but my tub is filled, and I'm going to go read a book.

I'll check in later to see how you all are, then I'm going to get a good nights rest.

Namaste hf
 Quoting: TS66


sounds like a great way to spend the night
we set up the slip n slide and tiki torches
got some cold drinks made and plan a night in the back yard cooling down :)
then sleep haha

i will keep checking in on conditions and report findings
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Nin, it always sounds like its pretty fun at your house!!! I did see you were cleaning earlier tho, he he
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
tomasgod1

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07/14/2012 01:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ACE jumped up to 9.6 on the density for a sek
were close everyone
 Quoting: NiNzrez


here we go...

Check out the radial velocity!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 07/14/2012 01:32 AM
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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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Hugh M Eye

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07/14/2012 01:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I've never seen SOHO have such a long gap-it's still hasn't updated. Maybe it got blind-sided by a comet or asteroid...just sayin'.

The ACE density is looking antsy-a couple of spikes. Maybe some particles are being swept ahead of the CME shock-front. I feel it won't be long now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

hiding
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/14/2012 01:34 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
When this CME arrives will there be lights out for us here in Asia?hiding
 Quoting: Solar Guardian


here is the expected aurora map for your area
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I'm below the red line. Does that mean I'm at KP 9 level? gasp
 Quoting: Solar Guardian


probaly wont get to see the auroras then
but then again, that is just a predicted model map
we can't be sure how far down auroras will be seen until the CME arrives :)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
whiteangel
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07/14/2012 01:35 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thank you all for the GOES red and blue understanding. We all know the red one is to watch, but didn't understand why. flower
AMERICA the Beautiful!!!
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/14/2012 01:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well, I don't know about you guys, but my tub is filled, and I'm going to go read a book.

I'll check in later to see how you all are, then I'm going to get a good nights rest.

Namaste hf
 Quoting: TS66


sounds like a great way to spend the night
we set up the slip n slide and tiki torches
got some cold drinks made and plan a night in the back yard cooling down :)
then sleep haha

i will keep checking in on conditions and report findings
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Nin, it always sounds like its pretty fun at your house!!! I did see you were cleaning earlier tho, he he
 Quoting: Isis One


we do try to enjoy the little simple things in life and take breaks when were able from the life chaos ^^
yeah i think im ALWAYS cleaning haha
but i do make time to clean before a big expected CME impact
i just think of how horrid it would be to have a full sink of dirty dishes and all my fav clothes dirty etc. and have electric go out hahaha
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Solar Guardian

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07/14/2012 01:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
KP 9 level means lights out, right? hiding
SnakeBite

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07/14/2012 01:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
When this CME arrives will there be lights out for us here in Asia?hiding
 Quoting: Solar Guardian


here is the expected aurora map for your area
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I'm below the red line. Does that mean I'm at KP 9 level? gasp
 Quoting: Solar Guardian


No, I believe it means that if the Kp level made it to 9 (that red line), your chances to see auroras would greatly increase.
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2012 01:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Oh well. I am not hard core enough to wait this one out but I look forward to reading all about it in the morning...provided that I have power in my area.

Thanks for this thread...I really am enjoying learning about solar weather and you regulars help me out a lot. Enjoy...good night.
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/14/2012 01:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ACE jumped up to 9.6 on the density for a sek
were close everyone
 Quoting: NiNzrez


here we go...

Check out the radial velocity!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


solar wind speed took a rise at 05:04 to 370.9
then at 05:34 dropped all the way down to 309.7

for others to know, we see this "sucking" action happen just before a CME impact
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2012 01:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
KP 9 level means lights out, right? hiding
 Quoting: Solar Guardian


Not necessarily, its just the highest type of geomagnetic storm rating. What hurts the power is when they rage long enough/ground current builds up enough to effect our grounded electrical system.
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2012 01:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
think it would be a good idea to save some water in
bathtub, and get some supplies in the morning.
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2012 01:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Should I stay up? Is this happening soon?

Btw thanks to all the regulars in this thread. Your knowledge is really helpful and enlightening
whiteangel
A Very Proud AMERICAN!!!!

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07/14/2012 01:47 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
KP 9 level means lights out, right? hiding
 Quoting: Solar Guardian


Looking at the below link, all 4 stations would need to be at 9 or above and then maybe lights out.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
AMERICA the Beautiful!!!
NiNzrez (OP)

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07/14/2012 01:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
check out the stereo A image for right before the M flare we just had
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

i was looking for a cme and found that

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 07/14/2012 01:56 AM
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Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2012 01:58 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
a big ol' chunk of the sun done busted clean off!
finley

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07/14/2012 01:59 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What do you think it is? Do you think it is a glitch or something to do with the comet?
tomasgod1

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07/14/2012 02:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
In all my days, I have never seen NOAA stop updating. The timeline is supposed to be updated every 15 minutes at 2, 17, 32, and 47 minutes past the hour. I think they left. Last update was at 2012 July 13 20:33 UT. That was over 9 and 1/2 hrs ago. Not funny really.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 07/14/2012 02:03 AM
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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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finley

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07/14/2012 02:03 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
In all my days, I have never seen NOAA stop updating. I think they left. Last update was at 2012 July 13 20:33 UT. That was over 9 and 1/2 hrs ago. Not funny really.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Wow Tom. What do you think? It's a little wierd to me. Maybe something broke??

Oh probably NOAA and NASA got in a fight over the info disinfo and NASA won. No really this is serious maybe it's so bad they went to families and to bunkers.

Last Edited by finley on 07/14/2012 02:07 AM
tomasgod1

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07/14/2012 02:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
check out the stereo A image for right before the M flare we just had
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

i was looking for a cme and found that
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Windows 2012 haha
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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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NiNzrez (OP)

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07/14/2012 02:05 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
In all my days, I have never seen NOAA stop updating. I think they left. Last update was at 2012 July 13 20:33 UT. That was over 9 and 1/2 hrs ago. Not funny really.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


the last update on their FB page was 9hrs ago!
they always update it when there is an event
here is their last post -



NOAA NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

9 hours ago.

Are you ready to become a Space Weather forecaster?
The CME from 12 July is in route towards Earth, with currant SWPC forecasts predicting the arrival around 1300Z. If you are interested in monitoring this CME, as it travels toward Earth, blah blah blha (i added in the blahs and not their full huge post)
Solar Alerts Blog
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Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
tomasgod1

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07/14/2012 02:06 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
In all my days, I have never seen NOAA stop updating. I think they left. Last update was at 2012 July 13 20:33 UT. That was over 9 and 1/2 hrs ago. Not funny really.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Wow Tom. What do you think? It's a little wierd to me. Maybe something broke??
 Quoting: finley


I think they left.
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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 June 6, 1799)


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