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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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07/14/2012 02:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Not looking good for aurora anywhere south of Canada and the far north.

Solar winds dropping, didn't reach the expected 700.

Forecast is for only Kp 5.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19756127


Just stick around for 10 or 12 hours. This is only the beginning.

And so it begins.......
hiding
Ollo

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07/14/2012 02:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
OK, I know you guys must be sick of those of us that are trying to keep up but don't understand everything yet...Is it hitting us now? If so, does this mean we aren't going to have the effect on our power grid that we thought?

Thanks :)
Starry eyes

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07/14/2012 02:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Not looking good for aurora anywhere south of Canada and the far north.

Solar winds dropping, didn't reach the expected 700.

Forecast is for only Kp 5.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19756127


Just stick around for 10 or 12 hours. This is only the beginning.

And so it begins.......
hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


There is no party like a suntard party! 5a
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
Starry eyes

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07/14/2012 02:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
OK, I know you guys must be sick of those of us that are trying to keep up but don't understand everything yet...Is it hitting us now? If so, does this mean we aren't going to have the effect on our power grid that we thought?

Thanks :)
 Quoting: Ollo


yes, it is here. I don't think anyone knows what exactly will happen. It will be here for a while.
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
RTS REDUX

User ID: 8620349
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07/14/2012 02:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1602629


That is all wrong : )

The X Flare happened..it's the CME that is arriving : )

Lol.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


the CME is from a filament eruption that occurred just prior to the X-flare and well north of 1520. I mentioned earlier that I saw it on NBC where it looked like a whip in the 304 wavelength which was strangely offset like it was taken from Hubble or Spitzer

starting @ 1:21 you can see the filament in the 193 wavelength erupting. Since it's directly earth facing it's harder to see via SDO



[link to www.youtube.com]
"If one understands that socialism is not a share-the-wealth programme, but is in reality a method to consolidate and control the wealth, then the seeming paradox of super-rich men promoting socialism becomes no paradox at all. Instead, it becomes logical, even the perfect tool of power-seeking megalomaniacs.

Communism or more accurately, socialism, is not a movement of the downtrodden masses, but of the economic elite."

Gary Allen

NONE DARE CALL IT CONSPIRACY
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hitler was a leftist

[link to constitutionalistnc.tripod.com]

siggif6
[link to fineartamerica.com]
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19756127
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07/14/2012 02:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Not looking good for aurora anywhere south of Canada and the far north.

Solar winds dropping, didn't reach the expected 700.

Forecast is for only Kp 5.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19756127


Just stick around for 10 or 12 hours. This is only the beginning.

And so it begins.......
hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


It was meant to impact at 700 and get weaker from there. It didn't reach 700 and is already under 600 and dropping so I guess it's going to be a bit weaker than the model showed.

[link to www.solarham.net]
Spittin'Cesium

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United Kingdom
07/14/2012 02:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GOES Electron flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Goes Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO SOLAR WIND plots:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

Real-time Bowshock model:

[link to pixie.spasci.com]

NASA SW-MF Cygnet model:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

NASA Magnetopause Simulation:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hey Hugh : )

Just watching the NASA M.S - do you know what the Square pattern is that we can see on the model from the 14th onward that just sits along the boundary of the GOES orbits?
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
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07/14/2012 02:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: CME is hitting us now

Hi Nin I posted here.
 Quoting: finley


i sent you a mail
i know you cant reply, but you can read it i think
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2012 02:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: CME is hitting us now

Hi Nin I posted here.
 Quoting: finley


i sent you a mail
i know you cant reply, but you can read it i think
 Quoting: NiNzrez


no secret messages spill the beans
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
07/14/2012 02:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1602629


That is all wrong : )

The X Flare happened..it's the CME that is arriving : )

Lol.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


the CME is from a filament eruption that occurred just prior to the X-flare and well north of 1520. I mentioned earlier that I saw it on NBC where it looked like a whip in the 304 wavelength which was strangely offset like it was taken from Hubble or Spitzer

starting @ 1:21 you can see the filament in the 193 wavelength erupting. Since it's directly earth facing it's harder to see via SDO



[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


i tend to agree with this
though i do beleive this filament merged with the front of the CME
this because the CME was moving so fast
i believe what we are seeing now is only the front of the CME and not the main mass
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
07/14/2012 02:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: CME is hitting us now

Hi Nin I posted here.
 Quoting: finley


i sent you a mail
i know you cant reply, but you can read it i think
 Quoting: NiNzrez


no secret messages spill the beans
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19715730


it's nothing pretaining to data
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
07/14/2012 02:58 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
meteor scan spiked

[link to www.meteorscan.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19715730


whats this? please explain? this is new to me
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
07/14/2012 02:58 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
OK, I know you guys must be sick of those of us that are trying to keep up but don't understand everything yet...Is it hitting us now? If so, does this mean we aren't going to have the effect on our power grid that we thought?

Thanks :)
 Quoting: Ollo


yes, it is here. I don't think anyone knows what exactly will happen. It will be here for a while.
 Quoting: Starry eyes


it is expected to affect Earth for around 30+hrs
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
07/14/2012 03:00 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1602629


That is all wrong : )

The X Flare happened..it's the CME that is arriving : )

Lol.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


the CME is from a filament eruption that occurred just prior to the X-flare and well north of 1520. I mentioned earlier that I saw it on NBC where it looked like a whip in the 304 wavelength which was strangely offset like it was taken from Hubble or Spitzer

starting @ 1:21 you can see the filament in the 193 wavelength erupting. Since it's directly earth facing it's harder to see via SDO



[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


i tend to agree with this
though i do beleive this filament merged with the front of the CME
this because the CME was moving so fast
i believe what we are seeing now is only the front of the CME and not the main mass
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I think it possible that the Filament could be the reason that the polarities are quite well matched on here [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] on arrival as the Filament was in the North and the CME the South,so yes I agree this is not the main bulk.
rose

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 07/14/2012 03:06 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 19372178
United States
07/14/2012 03:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GOES Electron flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Goes Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO SOLAR WIND plots:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

Real-time Bowshock model:

[link to pixie.spasci.com]

NASA SW-MF Cygnet model:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

NASA Magnetopause Simulation:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hey Hugh : )

Just watching the NASA M.S - do you know what the Square pattern is that we can see on the model from the 14th onward that just sits along the boundary of the GOES orbits?
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


My guess would be that it's computer-generated artifact or a secret masonic code. Let's try to focus on the big picture, not every wiggle and bump is significant.

Idol1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
07/14/2012 03:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GOES Electron flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Goes Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO SOLAR WIND plots:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

Real-time Bowshock model:

[link to pixie.spasci.com]

NASA SW-MF Cygnet model:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

NASA Magnetopause Simulation:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hey Hugh : )

Just watching the NASA M.S - do you know what the Square pattern is that we can see on the model from the 14th onward that just sits along the boundary of the GOES orbits?
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


My guess would be that it's computer-generated artifact or a secret masonic code. Let's try to focus on the big picture, not every wiggle and bump is significant.

Idol1
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I am not sure what you meant by your last Sentence,but fuck it,forget it.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2012 03:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jul 14 1851 UTC

Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
Hugh M Eye

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07/14/2012 03:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A short 20-min. burst of energy is what caused the Canadian Blackout of '89.



[link to www.youtube.com]

Accompanying article from IEEE:

[link to spectrum.ieee.org]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19715730
United States
07/14/2012 03:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.meteorscan.com]

this shows incoming debris

When a meteor strikes Earth’s atmosphere it decelerates rapidly. The friction created by the air causes the meteor to burn up at extremely high temperatures creating the white “shooting star” that we are all familiar with. This process also ionises the air along the trail making it possible to reflect radio waves.




Utilising a high powered VHF radar signal sent into the sky, we are able to detect reflected waves from these ionisation trails. Because the meteor is moving, the reflected signal is shifted in frequency from the original, by an amount according to it’s speed. This shift is also heard as an audible ping by the station operator.




Our system translates the reflected wave into three main parameters - Amplitude (strength), Frequency shift (Doppler shift) and decay time. This allows us to determine the relative size of the meteor strike (vertical scale) and the relative approximate speed and deceleration (amount of shift and width of the trace).




You can see the output from our system above in real time (approximately 1 minute delay on the Internet). During a meteor shower this trace will be full of strike traces, but it is also surprising how many meteors are striking Earth’s atmosphere all of the time.
it has spiked twice so far showing incoming mass objects....
Starry eyes

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07/14/2012 03:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.meteorscan.com]

this shows incoming debris

When a meteor strikes Earth’s atmosphere it decelerates rapidly. The friction created by the air causes the meteor to burn up at extremely high temperatures creating the white “shooting star” that we are all familiar with. This process also ionises the air along the trail making it possible to reflect radio waves.




Utilising a high powered VHF radar signal sent into the sky, we are able to detect reflected waves from these ionisation trails. Because the meteor is moving, the reflected signal is shifted in frequency from the original, by an amount according to it’s speed. This shift is also heard as an audible ping by the station operator.




Our system translates the reflected wave into three main parameters - Amplitude (strength), Frequency shift (Doppler shift) and decay time. This allows us to determine the relative size of the meteor strike (vertical scale) and the relative approximate speed and deceleration (amount of shift and width of the trace).




You can see the output from our system above in real time (approximately 1 minute delay on the Internet). During a meteor shower this trace will be full of strike traces, but it is also surprising how many meteors are striking Earth’s atmosphere all of the time.
it has spiked twice so far showing incoming mass objects....
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19715730


Well, here comes another spike on the chart..
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 16257329
Finland
07/14/2012 03:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
all eyes on Solar Doom and Kuril Islands. It could get closer to 8 mag... interesting times.
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2012 03:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
not saying there will be a big ass quake in Kuril Islands but it has the potential, with all these 5+... not too normal.
ehecatl

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Mexico
07/14/2012 03:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19715730


Nice web page and scientific method, but I wish they would give some zoom or other view options.
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2012 03:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Woo!

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 14 1915 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 14 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
Hugh M Eye

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07/14/2012 03:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 199
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 1914 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 14 1915 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 14 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Starry eyes

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07/14/2012 03:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 199
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 1914 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 14 1915 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 14 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
Starry eyes

User ID: 13160787
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07/14/2012 03:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 199
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 1914 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 14 1915 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 14 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ahaha..Hugh, you beat me to it!
***Earth was once considered to be flat. Anything is possible.***
Anonymous Coward
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United States
07/14/2012 03:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
lol snap
Luisport

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07/14/2012 03:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Thousands lose electric power in U.S. northeast as substation goes down in fire
Anonymous Coward
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07/14/2012 03:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


12:30am was long before the CME arrived so it cannot be related to that.

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