Expected Events:The Sun's polar fields are now at the point of a possible reversal
(solar polar fields map **Updated May 12, 2013!**)
[link to www.solen.info]
COMMENT:NOAA AR 1748 rotated into view, it is still not possible to infer
magnetic configuration but it is a big region with mixed magnetic
polarities. It produced two X-class flares in past 24h and can produce
more. The first one was an X2.8 with peak at 16:05 UT on May 13, the second
one an X3.2 at 01:11 UT today. Both were related to radio bursts and fast
limb CMEs. The first CME has a speed of 1500 km/s in the LASCO C3 field of
view (decelerated with respect to the 1800 km/s seen in C2), while the
second one was travelling at 1900 km/s in LASCO C3 (accelerated from the
1600 km/s measured in C2). Due to the source region location right at the
limb, we expect at most a shock arriving to the Earth early on May 15
(09:00 UT for the first one and 13:00 UT for the second one). There is also
a CME from May 12 expected to arrive around the same time as the first CME
from yesterday. The second X flare and corresponding CME produced also a
rise on the proton flux, which is still below the threshold and seems
stable for the moment. NOAA AR 1745 has also potential for M flares. High
solar activity is expected for the next 48h. Geomagnetic conditions are
currently quiet. The possible arrival of a shock from the two halo CMEs and
a mild fast speed stream from a coronal hole may increase conditions to
active and possible minor storm levels in the next 48h
[link to www.sidc.be
Region 11748 [N11E66] is a compact region with a strong magnetic delta structure in the leading spot section. Some loss of penumbral area was observed after the X3 flare. Further M and X class flaring is possible. C5+ flares: X3.2 at 01:11 UTC. Additionally an X1.2 flare was recorded at 01:48 UTC on May 15. Both events were associated with at least partial halo CMEs.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
May 12-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
May 14: At least a partial halo CME was observed after the X3 event in AR 11748. The CME was fast and Earth could see a flanking impact on May 16.
May 15: A wide CME was observed after the X1 event in AR 11748. A flanking impact is possible on May 17.
[link to www.solen.info