Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1181 produced a C1/Sf flare at 27/2326Z while Region 1176 produced a C1 X-ray event at 28/1139Z. Region 1176 decayed in area and spot count, but maintained a complex beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1183 indicated growth in area and spot count as it continued to rotate onto the disk. At 28/1405Z, a filament eruption was observed in STEREO-B EUVI 195 near N20, L=030. Associated with this eruption was a CME that lifted off the NE limb, first observed in LASCO C3 imagery at 28/1818Z. Due to the source of this CME, it is not Earth-directed. No new regions were numbered during the period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low all three days of the forecast period (29 - 31 March). A chance exists all three days for isolated M-class activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. ACE solar wind velocities remained low and steady, only varying between 340 km/s to 370 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/- 4 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for day one (29 March). By days two and three (30 - 31 March), quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected due to the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M 35/50/50
Class X 01/05/05
Proton 01/01/01