Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1195 (S18E28) produced two M-class flares: an M1/Sn at 0457Z and an M1/1n at 1553Z. There was not any indication of a CME associated with either of these events. Region 1195 dominated the activity during the past 24 hours and produced numerous additional C-class x-ray events. The group showed steady growth throughout the period and is currently estimated to have 370 millionths sunspot area. The group also shows some magnetic complexity (Beta-Gamma); particularly interesting is an east-west section of the inversion line in the center of the group which has a favorable configuration for building shear. Region 1193 (N17W45) is gradually decaying and did not produce any flares.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next three days. Additional M-class flares are likely from Region 1195, especially if it continues to grow.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 05/05/05