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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
NiNzrez  (OP)

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07/27/2011 09:27 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
only home for a sek
so wanted tot pop on and give you guys this
(i will go through thread when i get home later)

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Region 1260 (N20E45) produced the only C-class event of the period,
a C1 flare at 26/0339Z. Region 1260 has grown significantly and is
classified as a Dao type spot group. New Region 1261 (N16E74) was
numbered today. This region is still rotating onto the visible disk
and initial observations indicated a Dho type spot group. Both
regions were magnetically simple.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (27-29 July). Both Regions 1260
and 1261 are likely to produce C-class activity, with the remote
possibility of an isolated M-class event.


III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


lots of C flares right now
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

and the global D absorption map is lighting up
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 07/27/2011 09:31 AM
RJsGma

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07/27/2011 10:06 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
62% chance for an M and 57% chance for an X from 1261. ;)

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
RJsGma

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Issued: 2011 Jul 27 1237 UTC

NOAA AR 1260 (Catania 43) has produced five C-class flares in
the past 24h. The strongest one was a C3.8 flare peaking at 22:41 UT.
This AR, and NOAA AR 1261 (Catania 44), have potential for more C- and
even M- class flares. There was a backsided partial halo CME at 10:00 UT
on July 26, not expected to arrive to the Earth. There was a CME
erupting at 06:24 UT this morning, originating close to AR 1260 and
possibly related to a C1.1 flare. Only a few images from COR2-A are
available at this moment, but the CME seems to be heading northwards,
more details will be given when more data becomes available. Geomagnetic
conditions are quiet and expected to remain so until the arrival of a
fast solar wind stream from a coronal hole in about 48 hours. This
coronal hole is situated at a high northern latitude, so the
corresponding fast stream may not arrive to the Earth

[link to www.sidc.be]
Anonymous Coward
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07/27/2011 10:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Solar activity is picking up again

By
chillymanjaro
– July 27, 2011

After more than a week of quiet, solar activity is picking up. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory is monitoring two big sunspot groups now emerging over the sun’s eastern limb. Click on the image to view a 40-hour movie.

The leading sunspot group, AR1260, is crackling with C-class solar flares among a quartet of Earth-sized cores. Not far behind, sunspot AR1261 is larger and may harbor energy for flares of its own. At the moment, these two sunspot groups are too far off disk-center to affect Earth, but this will change in the days ahead. Readers with solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor developments. (SpaceWeather)

[link to thewatchers.adorraeli.com]
RJsGma

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07/27/2011 12:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
M flare!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
El Quisqueyano

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07/27/2011 12:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: RJsGma


Previous Flux Value
Solar X-ray Flux at 27 7 2011 1611 UT: M1.0 falling (GOES 15)
Anonymous Coward
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07/27/2011 01:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
2011/07/27 15:48:00 M1.1
[link to www.lmsal.com]
XP...

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07/27/2011 02:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hum if it is not too much to ask could someone inform the Sun we are supposed to be gearing up for a mini ice age and to please get on track and turn down the damm heat! 2pm here and already 110! Ughhhhhhh
explosion
"The world will not be destroyed by evil, it will be destroyed by the ones who do nothing to stop the evil."
"Lead or follow just get the hell out of my way!"
XP...
XP...

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07/27/2011 02:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
1260&1261 looking complex if the rope together could be a great show!
[link to www.lmsal.com]
explosioneqahhhTankdoomsolobigbro
"The world will not be destroyed by evil, it will be destroyed by the ones who do nothing to stop the evil."
"Lead or follow just get the hell out of my way!"
XP...
NiNzrez  (OP)

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07/27/2011 04:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
well an M Flare today with a good chance for another
it's about time the sun woke back up

in the past 24hrs or so, we have now had 11 C flares and 1 M
and counting.....
keep track here
[link to www.lmsal.com]
scroll down for list

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 07/27/2011 05:45 PM
NiNzrez  (OP)

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
For those that follow Patrick Geryl :)

Prediction for July 14-15-16-17, 2011
A complex of 2 sunspots will appear around July 14-15-16-17, 2011.

It will be something similar to the Sunspot Complex 1191-1193 from April 18-19, 2011, Negative Sunspot Complex 1147-1149 from January 21-22, 2011 and the Negative Sunspot Complex that appeared on October 26-27, 2010.

Between July 14 and 17, 2011 we also expect a complex eruption as the extraordinary August 1, 2010 event on the Sun...! If not... then October 10-11-12-13 is the next date...
[link to www.howtosurvive2012.com]

Now, it might not have came during the dates mentioned, 10 days late. But, we see now a complex of 2 sunspot groups. just as Geryl said.
So, do you think we will see an event like that of Aug 1st from these 2 groups? With all the C flares over the last 24hrs and todays M Flare, i think we very well may ^^

here is an article about the Aug 1st 2010 event
[link to earthobservatory.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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07/27/2011 04:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Thanks Nin. It could be 10 days late. We shall see.
NiNzrez  (OP)

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07/27/2011 05:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
looking like it wants to give another big flare
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

im going to get some food in me, then go through the last page i missed^^
El Quisqueyano

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07/27/2011 05:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Significant precursor signal seen at 2035utc/1635est. Possible 5+

Radio Direction Finder has signal coming in South East of France from somewhere out in the Mid to Southern portions of the Pacific plate to Chile.


This one might be major.
NiNzrez  (OP)

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07/27/2011 05:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Significant precursor signal seen at 2035utc/1635est. Possible 5+

Radio Direction Finder has signal coming in South East of France from somewhere out in the Mid to Southern portions of the Pacific plate to Chile.


This one might be major.
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


ElQ, can you add the link toy our earthquake thread for those who want to follow it?
thanks :)
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
SDO Spots Extra Energy in the Sun's Corona

:SUNiwan1:These jets, known as spicules, were captured in an SDO image on April 25, 2010. Combined with the energy from ripples in the magnetic field, they may contain enough energy to power the solar wind that streams from the sun toward Earth at 1.5 million miles per hour


Like giant strands of seaweed some 32,000 miles high, material shooting up from the sun sways back and forth with the atmosphere. In the ocean, it's moving water that pulls the seaweed along for a ride; in the sun's corona, magnetic field ripples called Alfvén waves cause the swaying.

For years these waves were too difficult to detect directly, but NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is now able to track the movements of this solar "seaweed" and measure how much energy is carried by the Alfvén waves. The research shows that the waves carry more energy than previously thought, and possibly enough to drive two solar phenomena whose causes remain points of debate: the intense heating of the corona to some 20 times hotter than the sun's surface and solar winds that blast up to 1.5 million miles per hour.

"SDO has amazing resolution so you can actually see individual waves," says Scott McIntosh at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "Now we can see that instead of these waves having about 1000th the energy needed as we previously thought, it has the equivalent of about 1100W light bulb for every 11 square feet of the sun's surface, which is enough to heat the sun's atmosphere and drive the solar wind."

McIntosh published his research in a Nature article appearing on July 28. Alfvén waves, he says, are actually fairly simple. They are waves that travel up and down a magnetic field line much the way a wave travels up and down a plucked string. The material surrounding the sun -- electrified gas called plasma – moves in concert with magnetic fields. SDO can see this material in motion and so can track the Alfvén waves.

Alfvén waves are part of a much more complex system of magnetic fields and plasma surrounding the sun. Understanding that system could help answer general questions such as what initiates geomagnetic storms near Earth and more focused questions such as what causes coronal heating and speeds of the solar wind – a field of inquiry in which there are few agreed-upon answers.

"We know there are mechanisms that supply a huge reservoir of energy at the sun's surface," says space scientist Vladimir Airapetian at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. "This energy is pumped into magnetic field energy, carried up into the sun's atmosphere and then released as heat." But determining the details of this mechanism has long been debated. Airapetian points out that a study like this confirms Alfvén waves may be part of that process, but that even with SDO we do not yet have the imaging resolution to prove it definitively.


More:
[link to www.nasa.gov]

maybe some int but i guess nothing new for u^^
XP...

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07/27/2011 06:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Region 1260 growing toward region 1261 and becoming more complex, finally a good movie to watch on a Wednesday night!
All I want for the 4th of July was one iddy bitty X flare, I'll take a late present.....
band
"The world will not be destroyed by evil, it will be destroyed by the ones who do nothing to stop the evil."
"Lead or follow just get the hell out of my way!"
XP...
El Quisqueyano

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Significant precursor signal seen at 2237utc/1837est. Possible 6+.

Radio Direction Finder has signal coming in EEN from France to Mongolia to Alaska. Draw a line EEN from France to Mongolia to Alaska. Signal along this path
NiNzrez  (OP)

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Region 1260 growing toward region 1261 and becoming more complex, finally a good movie to watch on a Wednesday night!
All I want for the 4th of July was one iddy bitty X flare, I'll take a late present.....
band
 Quoting: XP...

should make for a good show ^^


At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 8 spotted regions.

Region 11259 was quiet and stable.
Region 11260 developed slowly and has a minor magnetic delta structure in a central penumbra. Further C class flaring is likely. Flares: C1.2 at 03:39 and C3.8 at 22:41 UTC.
New region 11261 rotated partly into view at the nortrheast limb on July 25 and was numbered the next day by NOAA/SWPC. This is a complex and compact region which has M class flare potential. Two magnetic delta structures are evident
[link to www.solen.info]

Minor update added at 16:20 UTC on July 27: Region 11260 produced an M1.1 flare at 16:07 UTC. Several new regions have emerged today and there is a larger region about to rotate into view at the northeast limb.
[link to www.solen.info]

here is the latest image from SDO
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
(green filter, so you can see the Flare activity well)

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 07/27/2011 07:36 PM
Enchanted Wanderer

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07/27/2011 08:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Anyone have an answer to the question about the venus transit? its not till june 2012, and i and a couple of others were wondering about it.. if we get to see the brightness so far away from a transit?.. if it was in a couple of months i could see the connection.. but a year out? seems a bit much.. any info is appreciated.. thanks..
 Quoting: Enchanted Wanderer


Ok..I am here to answer as much as I can...

go for it!
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Hey Tom, can you explain it? or anyone else? If the venus transit isnt for a year, how are we experiencing transit brightness now? thanks guys
Time for a new reality [link to www.thevenusproject.com]
Get A Kit, Make A Plan, Be Prepared. Zombie Apocalypses Do Happen!
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El Quisqueyano

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Significant precursor signal seen at 2035utc/1635est. Possible 5+

Radio Direction Finder has signal coming in South East of France from somewhere out in the Mid to Southern portions of the Pacific plate to Chile.


This one might be major.
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


ElQ, can you add the link toy our earthquake thread for those who want to follow it?
thanks :)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Here it is NiN;

Thread: LIVE "ELF/ULF" MONITORING OF EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR SIGNALS ON GLP. QUAKE FORECAST UP TO 6HRS IN ADVANCE...(((Updated Daily))) By ELQ. (Page 121)
NiNzrez  (OP)

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

[link to www.youtube.com]
zacksavage

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07/27/2011 10:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Sweet!!

Looks like I am in time for a good show,...

I wonder what I have missed.




Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
NiNzrez  (OP)

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Sweet!!

Looks like I am in time for a good show,...

I wonder what I have missed.




Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


Hi Zack! hi
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
See what's attempting to form in and around 1260/1261?

[link to solen.info]
zacksavage

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hi Zack! hi
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Hey Nin, hope they're not working ya too hard,...how's it going?? Just got out of the woods a couple of hours ago, and have no clue as to what is happening in our little galaxy now.

Last time I check in yer thread here, the sun was in a contemplation mode. But I see that there is solar storm talk by the NASA elites,...hm,..

I am in transit now so I will try to catch up in a couple of hours if not tomorrow.

hi
Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
XP...

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Another region coming into view right behind 1261 , a lot of magnetic activity in the 1260-1261 region. The new addition coming around could really expand the power if all three rope together.... A nice Jupiter size region with a complex filament and ginormous coronal hole would be awesome!
XP...
"The world will not be destroyed by evil, it will be destroyed by the ones who do nothing to stop the evil."
"Lead or follow just get the hell out of my way!"
XP...
NiNzrez  (OP)

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07/27/2011 11:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
See what's attempting to form in and around 1260/1261?

[link to solen.info]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1482780


i have beem watching that exact thing very close
could get messy
NiNzrez  (OP)

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07/27/2011 11:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
wow, i just read my FB and a LOT of my friends from GLP got caught in that mass ban :(
well this sucks cause they never did anything wrong. in fact there a bit to much of lovey people :/
Snurbs

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
SDO Spots Extra Energy in the Sun's Corona

:SUNiwan1:These jets, known as spicules, were captured in an SDO image on April 25, 2010. Combined with the energy from ripples in the magnetic field, they may contain enough energy to power the solar wind that streams from the sun toward Earth at 1.5 million miles per hour


Like giant strands of seaweed some 32,000 miles high, material shooting up from the sun sways back and forth with the atmosphere. In the ocean, it's moving water that pulls the seaweed along for a ride; in the sun's corona, magnetic field ripples called Alfvén waves cause the swaying.

For years these waves were too difficult to detect directly, but NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is now able to track the movements of this solar "seaweed" and measure how much energy is carried by the Alfvén waves. The research shows that the waves carry more energy than previously thought, and possibly enough to drive two solar phenomena whose causes remain points of debate: the intense heating of the corona to some 20 times hotter than the sun's surface and solar winds that blast up to 1.5 million miles per hour.

"SDO has amazing resolution so you can actually see individual waves," says Scott McIntosh at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "Now we can see that instead of these waves having about 1000th the energy needed as we previously thought, it has the equivalent of about 1100W light bulb for every 11 square feet of the sun's surface, which is enough to heat the sun's atmosphere and drive the solar wind."

McIntosh published his research in a Nature article appearing on July 28. Alfvén waves, he says, are actually fairly simple. They are waves that travel up and down a magnetic field line much the way a wave travels up and down a plucked string. The material surrounding the sun -- electrified gas called plasma – moves in concert with magnetic fields. SDO can see this material in motion and so can track the Alfvén waves.

Alfvén waves are part of a much more complex system of magnetic fields and plasma surrounding the sun. Understanding that system could help answer general questions such as what initiates geomagnetic storms near Earth and more focused questions such as what causes coronal heating and speeds of the solar wind – a field of inquiry in which there are few agreed-upon answers.

"We know there are mechanisms that supply a huge reservoir of energy at the sun's surface," says space scientist Vladimir Airapetian at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. "This energy is pumped into magnetic field energy, carried up into the sun's atmosphere and then released as heat." But determining the details of this mechanism has long been debated. Airapetian points out that a study like this confirms Alfvén waves may be part of that process, but that even with SDO we do not yet have the imaging resolution to prove it definitively.


More:
[link to www.nasa.gov]

maybe some int but i guess nothing new for u^^
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Quite possibly one of the greatest observations of our time. This is a big deal.





GLP