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| 11:34 PM | ||
| Users Online Now: 1,885 (Who's On?) | Visitors Today: 1,077,472 | |
| Pageviews Today: 2,148,187 | Threads Today: 915 | Posts Today: 19,130 |
| 11:34 PM | ||
SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) | |
El Quisqueyano  User ID: 1523263  United States09/08/2011 02:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Dynamic Pressure: 0.07 nPa | Density: 0.4 Protons/cm3 | Solar Wind Speed: 486.9 km/s Quoting: IwantToBelieve76 With this tranquility here on our Magnetosphere, when these magnetic storms start hitting us they will catch earth with it's pants down sort to speak. It will shake us about IMHO. Like going from no wind to hurricane force winds in an instant. What would that do to any environment? any chance of it causing eq doom 9/10 as predicted by that Boylan dude? Yes. Will be some quake doom but I am not in the habit of predicting magnitudes unless I see a signal for it. What magnitudes they will be all depends. |
| humuhumunukuapuaa User ID: 1532121 United States09/08/2011 02:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Wow---I got my first negative karma...They called me a "suntard Nazi"..LMFAO...I shall wear that label proudly..he he... Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>> You were a bad Karma virgin? Go figure. I only say that because I got hammered when it (the karma system) first came out. Through honesty, we make peace. |
| humuhumunukuapuaa User ID: 1532121 United States09/08/2011 02:36 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to www.theregister.co.uk] Quoting: Sunpar Solar flares are massive releases of radiation associated with sunspots. If they hit Earth, they can deliver large amounts of energy into the atmosphere: they can also damage or destroy satellites or probe craft in space, particularly where these are beyond some or all of the protective magnetic fields of Earth. According to a statement issued yesterday by scientists investigating results from the orbiting Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), such flares carry much more energy than had been thought. The statement says: Scientists have observed that radiation from solar flares sometimes continues for up to five hours beyond the initial minutes of the main phase of a solar flare occurrence. The new data also show that the total energy from this extended phase of the solar flare peak sometimes has more energy than that of the initial event. On Nov 3, 2010, a solar flare was observed by SDO. If scientists had only measured the effects of the solar flare as it initially happened, the information would have resulted in underestimating the amount of energy shooting into Earth's atmosphere by 70 per cent. The new capability with SDO observations will provide a much more accurate estimation of the total energy input into Earth's environment. [See article at above link] Source: [link to iopscience.iop.org] I wonder if this 5 hour elongated earth energy absorption also applies to CMEs? This would also mean, perhaps significant recalculations for solar flare (and maybe CMEs) on things like: 1. Hurricane activity 2. Earthquake activity 3. Potential for solar energy alternatives:through timing capture with 'impact'. 4. Other stuff. Seems like a big miscalculation that should have been caught here on earth....maybe this means we not only gain more energy from these events, but we also lose energy from our system quicker than we knew....dunno. Last Edited by humuhumunukuapuaa on 09/08/2011 02:39 PM Through honesty, we make peace. |
| Arnie User ID: 1540225 United States09/08/2011 02:39 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| outofspace User ID: 926477  United Kingdom09/08/2011 02:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 1540601  India09/08/2011 02:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814  Germany09/08/2011 02:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Slade User ID: 1539538 United States09/08/2011 02:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I already posted this but I think everybody was going to bed so I will try again. Your answers are greatly appreciated. I know that there is a scale for flares but how does one know the size of a CME technically speaking other than OMG that's a big one, etc... By the way this is my first post but i have followed for a while and find this fascinating.If there is no scale can one be developed? |
| NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 1135433 United States09/08/2011 02:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 1283 is growing some with mixed polarity 1283 - 62% chance for a M Flare, 57% chance for a X Flare 1289 - 18% chance for a M Flare, 06% chance for a X Flare [link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
| <<LOOK`n thru YOU>> User ID: 923851 United States09/08/2011 03:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| <<LOOK`n thru YOU>> User ID: 923851 United States09/08/2011 03:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 1135433 United States09/08/2011 03:03 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I already posted this but I think everybody was going to bed so I will try again. Your answers are greatly appreciated. I know that there is a scale for flares but how does one know the size of a CME technically speaking other than OMG that's a big one, etc... By the way this is my first post but i have followed for a while and find this fascinating.If there is no scale can one be developed? Quoting: Slade sorry, i thought i answered this last night there is no scale for a CME a flare we can measure because the radiated light is something we can monitor imediatly the amount of mass ejected is not measurable until it reaches earth so we have to go by how much mass looks to be ejected, in what direction, get the speed of the ejection from from solar monitoring sites, then sit and wait to see how much of the mass shows up at earths magnetosphere we monitor inital mass ejections with the proton flux [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] then we monitor the nict for when the CME arrives [link to www2.nict.go.jp] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 1540601 India09/08/2011 03:16 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I already posted this but I think everybody was going to bed so I will try again. Your answers are greatly appreciated. I know that there is a scale for flares but how does one know the size of a CME technically speaking other than OMG that's a big one, etc... By the way this is my first post but i have followed for a while and find this fascinating.If there is no scale can one be developed? Quoting: Slade sorry, i thought i answered this last night there is no scale for a CME a flare we can measure because the radiated light is something we can monitor imediatly the amount of mass ejected is not measurable until it reaches earth so we have to go by how much mass looks to be ejected, in what direction, get the speed of the ejection from from solar monitoring sites, then sit and wait to see how much of the mass shows up at earths magnetosphere we monitor inital mass ejections with the proton flux [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] then we monitor the nict for when the CME arrives [link to www2.nict.go.jp] Thanks Nin, any analysis/measure of how are magnetosphere is today compared to few years back? that will help to understand the gravity of the situation, and why this solar cycle is different then previous ones... |
| Slade User ID: 1539538 United States09/08/2011 03:18 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thank you NiNzrez for your answer. If you answered last night my bad, either way i really appreciate it. It is amazing to me that you "sun nerds" seem to get it right more often than the "experts". I use the term "sun nerds" with the utmost of respect since i consider myself to be a "rookie sun nerd" as well. Keep up the good work ;) |
| Boceph User ID: 1486701 United States09/08/2011 03:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | does this show another M class just now? [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] or was that the one from a few hours ago? too many... getting them mixed up! Last Edited by Boceph on 09/08/2011 03:22 PM |
| Boceph User ID: 1486701 United States09/08/2011 03:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 1081851 United States09/08/2011 03:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| humuhumunukuapuaa User ID: 1532121 United States09/08/2011 03:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Here is elenin's and earth's orbit. Quoting: humuhumunukuapuaa oops, here it is. [link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov] I'll go back and look at the solar events...but I'll probably come back scratching my head. Much appreciated. I have pondered your question as well. I find myself scratching my head quiet a bit in this thread,... and doing a lot of this  Prolly just me though  Z i will look into this some later today :) Could you point me to the best cygnet....I'm just a newbie...Thanks. OK....this is the best I can do for now: [link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu] I'm probably wrong about the position of Elenin, but according to the JPL orbit link further above, I'd place it just below that continuous 'flame' in the lower left corner. [referring to berkely 9/4 - 9/8] I would think that would be even better for solar absorption, and maybe the other flares are incidental to this....speculation.... Anyway, I am certain Nin or someone else will set me straight on how to determine where elenin is in juxtaposition to the suns events. I hope. Last Edited by humuhumunukuapuaa on 09/08/2011 03:51 PM Through honesty, we make peace. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany09/08/2011 03:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 1135433 United States09/08/2011 04:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | about that :) you can always look on the 1 minute fulx to get a better look at recent flares as well as activity it's the one most of us watch [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] the time is at the bottom :) Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
| zacksavage User ID: 897157 United States09/08/2011 04:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Here is elenin's and earth's orbit. Quoting: humuhumunukuapuaa I'll go back and look at the solar events...but I'll probably come back scratching my head. Much appreciated. I have pondered your question as well. I find myself scratching my head quiet a bit in this thread,... and doing a lot of this Prolly just me though i will look into this some later today :) Thank you NiN, I know your time is full. I hate to be such a retard on this info,... but, I am an artsy, right-brained type of bloke. All these charts and numbers make my head spin on axis. You seem to swim through this stuff like a sun-loving dolphin. It would be interesting to see if those JPL Elenin orbital projection bare any relation to the CME flaring and such of late.  Z Free your mind,...your ass will follow. --- parliament funkadelic |
| zacksavage User ID: 897157 United States09/08/2011 04:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: zacksavage Much appreciated. I have pondered your question as well. I find myself scratching my head quiet a bit in this thread,... and doing a lot of this Prolly just me though i will look into this some later today :) Could you point me to the best cygnet....I'm just a newbie...Thanks. OK....this is the best I can do for now: [link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu] I'm probably wrong about the position of Elenin, but according to the JPL orbit link further above, I'd place it just below that continuous 'flame' in the lower left corner. [referring to berkely 9/4 - 9/8] I would think that would be even better for solar absorption, and maybe the other flares are incidental to this....speculation.... Anyway, I am certain Nin or someone else will set me straight on how to determine where elenin is in juxtaposition to the suns events. I hope. Interesting,...although I can make neither heads nor tales of your link. Perhaps more alcohol on my part??? Weed maybe??? Oh well,...best wait for Tom or Nin or one of the many more coherent sunwarriors to break it all down for the simple folk  Z Last Edited by zacksavage on 09/08/2011 04:49 PM Free your mind,...your ass will follow. --- parliament funkadelic |
| Boceph User ID: 1486701 United States09/08/2011 04:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | about that :) you can always look on the 1 minute fulx to get a better look at recent flares as well as activity it's the one most of us watch [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] the time is at the bottom :) Thanks NiN! |
| humuhumunukuapuaa User ID: 1532121 United States09/08/2011 05:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | OK....this is the best I can do for now: [link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu] I'm probably wrong about the position of Elenin, but according to the JPL orbit link further above, I'd place it just below that continuous 'flame' in the lower left corner. [referring to berkely 9/4 - 9/8] I would think that would be even better for solar absorption, and maybe the other flares are incidental to this....speculation.... Anyway, I am certain Nin or someone else will set me straight on how to determine where elenin is in juxtaposition to the suns events. I hope. Interesting,...although I can make neither heads nor tales of your link. Perhaps more alcohol on my part??? Weed maybe??? Oh well,...best wait for Tom or Nin or one of the many more coherent sunwarriors to break it all down for the simple folk Z Agreed. I thought I'd take a shot (should have tried the other kind), just to show I cared about it. I am slow on this stuff, my computer is slow, I can't find the models I'm looking for...Its frustrating. Hey you guuuuuuuuyyyyyyyyyyyssss!!!!!!!!!!!!! Through honesty, we make peace. |
| El Quisqueyano User ID: 1523263 United States09/08/2011 05:07 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | OK....this is the best I can do for now: [link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu] I'm probably wrong about the position of Elenin, but according to the JPL orbit link further above, I'd place it just below that continuous 'flame' in the lower left corner. [referring to berkely 9/4 - 9/8] I would think that would be even better for solar absorption, and maybe the other flares are incidental to this....speculation.... Anyway, I am certain Nin or someone else will set me straight on how to determine where elenin is in juxtaposition to the suns events. I hope. Interesting,...although I can make neither heads nor tales of your link. Perhaps more alcohol on my part??? Weed maybe??? Oh well,...best wait for Tom or Nin or one of the many more coherent sunwarriors to break it all down for the simple folk Z Agreed. I thought I'd take a shot (should have tried the other kind), just to show I cared about it. I am slow on this stuff, my computer is slow, I can't find the models I'm looking for...Its frustrating. Hey you guuuuuuuuyyyyyyyyyyyssss!!!!!!!!!!!!! What's wrong HumHum? What you needing help on? |
| humuhumunukuapuaa User ID: 1532121 United States09/08/2011 05:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I know NASA is just now able to do a really cool job of watching solar flares, storms and CMEs travel through the solar system, interact with planets, comets, aseroids, space craft etc, but it is difficult for me to determine anything but their arrival time at earth.  Through honesty, we make peace. |
| El Quisqueyano User ID: 1523263 United States09/08/2011 05:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just trying to determine when and if any of the solar flare and CME events, particularly since september 5, 2011, were elenin directed....I thought I knew at least how to find that heliospheric model with the swirls, but it only gives me one event, and the Berkely model does not appear to give the direction of the event once it leaves the sun and starts heading to the planets. Quoting: humuhumunukuapuaa I know NASA is just now able to do a really cool job of watching solar flares, storms and CMEs travel through the solar system, interact with planets, comets, aseroids, space craft etc, but it is difficult for me to determine anything but their arrival time at earth. Could this help? [link to www.lmsal.com] |
| El Quisqueyano User ID: 1523263 United States09/08/2011 05:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just trying to determine when and if any of the solar flare and CME events, particularly since september 5, 2011, were elenin directed....I thought I knew at least how to find that heliospheric model with the swirls, but it only gives me one event, and the Berkely model does not appear to give the direction of the event once it leaves the sun and starts heading to the planets. Quoting: humuhumunukuapuaa I know NASA is just now able to do a really cool job of watching solar flares, storms and CMEs travel through the solar system, interact with planets, comets, aseroids, space craft etc, but it is difficult for me to determine anything but their arrival time at earth. This? [link to gse.gi.alaska.edu] |
| El Quisqueyano User ID: 1523263 United States09/08/2011 05:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just trying to determine when and if any of the solar flare and CME events, particularly since september 5, 2011, were elenin directed....I thought I knew at least how to find that heliospheric model with the swirls, but it only gives me one event, and the Berkely model does not appear to give the direction of the event once it leaves the sun and starts heading to the planets. Quoting: humuhumunukuapuaa I know NASA is just now able to do a really cool job of watching solar flares, storms and CMEs travel through the solar system, interact with planets, comets, aseroids, space craft etc, but it is difficult for me to determine anything but their arrival time at earth. I also use this one; [link to ips.ucsd.edu] |
| El Quisqueyano User ID: 1523263 United States09/08/2011 05:31 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just trying to determine when and if any of the solar flare and CME events, particularly since september 5, 2011, were elenin directed....I thought I knew at least how to find that heliospheric model with the swirls, but it only gives me one event, and the Berkely model does not appear to give the direction of the event once it leaves the sun and starts heading to the planets. Quoting: humuhumunukuapuaa I know NASA is just now able to do a really cool job of watching solar flares, storms and CMEs travel through the solar system, interact with planets, comets, aseroids, space craft etc, but it is difficult for me to determine anything but their arrival time at earth. This one is my favorite; [link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu] |
