SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

There was a beautiful Prominence eruption yesterday, here is a video I uploaded to GLP. For some reason the GLP Video would not play the HD version and after several upload tries ended up with this one. It will have to do:/

In case someone missed the 9/14/11 comet hitting the sun.

Thanks Tom we are grateful for your info.

Still in the medical center
They are talking about maybe letting me go home tomorrow
yay!
Thank you everyone for all the prayers and well wishes
With all this great energy being sent my way, I will be up and walking again in no time at all
:)

Okay Gang...

Here we go...
Check out this GREAT YOUTUBER's site:

Thought I would embed it. He nailed the 7+ on 15th for Fiji region as he said Tonga area.




[link to www.youtube.com]

Nevermind....its not embedding. Sorry.

Okay Gang,

Here is one of my favorite sites..


[link to www.tesis.lebedev.ru]


Lots of flares today..

I guess the sun is feeling all of the healing energy we've been sending to NIN.

for those that would enjoy giving NIN a thread of nothing but Love to read, please repost your support for her here. The ugliness is wearing everyone down and particularly those who know her. Thread: Post your Get Well Wishes for NiNzrez here. NO negativity.

I am really out of it from the meds they are giving me
I'm seeing a bit bury
But I am trying to read along what's going on with the sun
I am working on getting better then will be posting again very soon :)

I'm sorry I don't know how embed here but these are always very informative videos.

[link to www.youtube.com]

I am really out of it from the meds they are giving me
I'm seeing a bit bury
But I am trying to read along what's going on with the sun
I am working on getting better then will be posting again very soon :)

I am really out of it from the meds they are giving me
I'm seeing a bit bury
But I am trying to read along what's going on with the sun
I am working on getting better then will be posting again very soon :)

X-Ray flux is rocketing up. Should be at least an M-class flare.

Oops, it petered out at C7.8

TOM or <LOOKIN>, I'd like your opinion on which data sources are more reliable. Case in point-NOAA attributes CME to sunspot # 1289 but the Lookheed Solarsoft site shows no flare activity from that region since Sept 11 and I was convinced the CME was from the C9.9 event at #1296. [link to www.lmsal.com]

Also, I've noted that the active regions #1297 and #1298 have been on Solarsoft for over 24 hrs. yet not seen on Spaceweather.com. I guess even the professionals aren't always on the same page. With 10 or so active regions it gets a little bit overwhelming. I'm just interested in your experience and methodology in regards to tracking down correct info. Thanks for all your hard work and info.

There was a large CME off the Western limb from old Region 1283 that continues to be very activem, pictured here on SDO top right 2:00 position. This CME followed a C2.7 flare from the region beginning at 12:03 UT on 09/13/2011. This CME is not earth directed.
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Flare from solarsoft..
[link to www.lmsal.com]
Had this region still been on the Earth side of the solar disk GOES would have registerd this flare at a significantly higher value.


There was at least one CME following the C 2.9 LDE flare from Region 1295 that began at 23:31 UT on 9/13/2011.
Updates are slow to come in from the Stereo Sats at this time.
Stereo B is currently 12 hrs behind, so this data is still unavailable.

Stereo A is now updating leaving a 10 hr gap in data....
here are images showing this CME from Stereo A


[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

After looking at SDO and Solarsoft it looks like both Regions 1295 and 1289 were active during this LDE. If this CME is from Region 1289 it will most likely be geoeffective. An update from Stereo B will be very helpful in this determination.

Image from SDO...
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

More spectacular images from SDO during the C 2.9 LDE with associated CME. Notice Regions 1295-96 (far left), and Region 1289 (upper right of center).

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]


[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

This CME actually originated after the C 2.2 flare from Region 1297 starting at 19:15 and ending at 20:30 UT on 9/14/2011. The edge of the ICME can be seen lifting away from the solar disk on Stereo A prior to the C 9.2 flare that started at 20.42 UT.
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Because of the location of Region 1297 near the Western Limb of the disk at the time of this eruption, this CME will most likely not be geoeffective. Even if this CME gave a glancing blow I would expect little if any effect on our magnetosphere because I expect the CME would arrive oriented + to - and not make a good connection.

Tuesday's CME from Region 1289 is expected to be geoeffective however. Because of Region 1289's position I expect that this CME will arrive oriented - to + and will make a strong connection.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 Sep 14 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity remained low. Seven C-class flares were
observed during the period. The largest was a C9/1f flare observed
at 14/2051Z from Region 1297 (S16W52).

A full halo CME was observed
from SOHO NASA LASCO C2 images at 14/0000Z with an estimated
plane-of-sky speed of 428 km/s. The source of the CME was an
eruption in the vicinity of Region 1289 (N24W25).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class flares for the period (15-17
September).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the period (15-17
September). The CME is expected to be geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 143
Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 14 Sep 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Event Issue Date: 2011-09-14 14:50:05.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-09-17 04:38:03.0 GMTArival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 13 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.6 Re
Sat, 17 Sep 2011 04:38:03 GMT

That would be tomorrow evening 9:38 Pac.
11:38 Central
12:38 Eastern
give or take 6 hrs.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]