SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1055324 United States 10/01/2011 04:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Question for our fabulous SUNTARDS :-D Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1055324 Can anyone tell where this comet will hit? Earth Facing? And when is it supposed to hit. Thank you in advance, u guys are the best!!!! CAN anyone address this please? its hard to tell exactly where it will hit we can see it on STEREO A and B though it is more clear and brighter on A and coming up in the direction that we can see the CME from earlier this would sugest its comeing in toward the earth facing side of the sun. and more toward the western area maybe somewhere just below 1302 would be my guess see the CME? and look where the comet is headed [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Thank you NIN !!! |
TruthSeeker66 User ID: 2287588 United States 10/01/2011 04:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Does anyone have an idea what this all boils down to, as far as CMEs directed at us and what strength they are? I have looked at so many links of pics and graphs, that the little bit I thought I had learned is now a jumbled up mess. I am confused even more than earlier. Quoting: Shenue Here's a snip from [link to sidc.oma.be] COMMENT: Solar activity is moderate. Active region Catania#85 (NOAA1305) has produced two M flares over the last 24 hours, both associated with an Earth-directed CME. Multiple C flares and an occasional M flare can still be expected from active regions NOAA1302 and 1305. The associated CMEs have a high chance to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed has increased to 570km/s over the last few hours. This will maintain the geomagnetic activity at unsettled to active levels over the next 24 hours. Then, on Oct.3, the CME associated with the Sept.30 M flare should arrive at Earth, triggering a minor to major geomagnetic storm. The magnitude of the disturbance is still difficult to establish with the currently available data. A second CME from the Oct.1 M flare should follow soon (<12 hours) after the first one, possibly causing a second peak in geomagnetic activity, on the wake of the first disturbance. |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 1135433 United States 10/01/2011 04:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | What CME's from today, Oct 1st, are Earth facing? One direct, one glancing and one off to our side. How many CME's are we expecting to arrive at Earth, and When? We have 3 CME's arriving and 1 glancing Blow The 1st CME we are expecting was associated with the LED C2 Flare we had on Sept 29th [link to www.lmsal.com] This CME is expected to arrive sometime tomorrow, Oct 2nd. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated active periods on days one and two (01-02 October). The increase in activity is expected due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) on day one and possible effects on day two from a weak CME associated with the long duration C2 event observed on 29 September. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (03 October). [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] (NOAA has not updated yet with todays, Oct 1st, events) The 2nd CME we are expecting was associated with the M1 Flare we had on Sept 30th [link to www.lmsal.com] This CME is expected to arrive around Oct 3rd. September 30: A small and slow CME was observed after an M1 event in region 11305. This CME could reach Earth on October 3 [link to www.solen.info] "on Oct.3, the CME associated with the Sept.30 M flare should arrive at Earth, triggering a minor to major geomagnetic storm." [link to sidc.oma.be] we talked about this Sept 30th CME here Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) (Page 377) The 3rd CME we are expecting was associated with the M1.2 Flare we had on Oct 1st [link to www.lmsal.com] This CME is expected to arrive around Oct 4th Oct 1st: Minor updated added at 14:25 UTC on October 1: Region 11305 was the source of an M1.2/1N long duration event peaking at 09:59 UTC. The event was associated with both type II and IV radio sweeps and an apparently Earth directed CME. Expect this CME to reach Earth on October 4 and cause unsettled to major storm conditions. [link to www.solen.info] A second CME from the Oct.1 M flare should follow soon (<12 hours) after the first one, possibly causing a second peak in geomagnetic activity, on the wake of the first disturbance. [link to sidc.oma.be] We talked about this CME event here Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) (Page 382) We can also expect at least a glancing blow from the CME produces around sunspot region 1302 during this same M Flare event. We also have right now the solar winds from a earth facing Coronal Hole. (bottom right side dark spot) [link to spaceweather.com] These coronal hole winds could add a bit of speed to the expected CME's The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated active periods on days one and two (01-02 October). The increase in activity is expected due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] This will be updated as we gain more information on these expected CME's Last Edited by NiNzrez on 10/01/2011 04:53 PM Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1679900 United States 10/01/2011 04:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Does anyone have an idea what this all boils down to, as far as CMEs directed at us and what strength they are? I have looked at so many links of pics and graphs, that the little bit I thought I had learned is now a jumbled up mess. I am confused even more than earlier. Quoting: Shenue Here's a snip from [link to sidc.oma.be] COMMENT: Solar activity is moderate. Active region Catania#85 (NOAA1305) has produced two M flares over the last 24 hours, both associated with an Earth-directed CME. Multiple C flares and an occasional M flare can still be expected from active regions NOAA1302 and 1305. The associated CMEs have a high chance to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed has increased to 570km/s over the last few hours. This will maintain the geomagnetic activity at unsettled to active levels over the next 24 hours. Then, on Oct.3, the CME associated with the Sept.30 M flare should arrive at Earth, triggering a minor to major geomagnetic storm. The magnitude of the disturbance is still difficult to establish with the currently available data. A second CME from the Oct.1 M flare should follow soon (<12 hours) after the first one, possibly causing a second peak in geomagnetic activity, on the wake of the first disturbance. Thank you! I think I actually understand most of that...amazing!! lol How about the comet? There has been talk that this may cause a CME. When should that information be available? To ALL here. Again, my sincerest thanks for your help in helping me understand. I am almost embarrassed to admit this, but...my husband is actually one of the hands-on team that built the stereo satellites. 90% of his work was on space craft B (behind). It was an exciting time for him. Currently he is working on two satellites that are going to study the Van Allen radiation belts. He loves his work and talks to me about it. But to me, most of it is....well you can imagine...woosh lol |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 2451229 Mexico 10/01/2011 04:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
solar2004 User ID: 1556689 Canada 10/01/2011 05:08 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 1135433 United States 10/01/2011 05:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | look at these images of the comet! look at all the top links in the while body area of the site [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] they have the images good questions is.... WHY they dont post them as updates images on the SOHO site? Last Edited by NiNzrez on 10/01/2011 05:40 PM Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 1364113 United Kingdom 10/01/2011 05:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | There is alot of Darker Filaments in this Image of Sol currently that look like they are ready to start Peeling away from the Surface, Top-Right stretching through the Top-Mid Latitude and Mid-Bottom winding through to the Bottom-Left,which already looks like it may of began Peeling itself away from the Surface at the Time the Image was Taken.. [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 10/01/2011 10:15 PM The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
dutchies User ID: 1509707 Netherlands 10/01/2011 05:15 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 22:54 image showtime: [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] One has to live in the present. Whatever is past is gone beyond recall; whatever is future remains beyond one’s reach, until it becomes present. Remembering the past and giving thought to the future are important, but only to the extent that they help one deal with the present. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1679900 United States 10/01/2011 05:16 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | look at these images of the comet! Quoting: NiNzrez from LASCO C2 [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] from LASCO C3 [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] they have the images good questions is.... WHY they dont post them as updates images on the SOHO site? Not a one of those images would load for me. Just the little boxes with the red X inside. hmmm |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1679900 United States 10/01/2011 05:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | There is alot of Darker Filaments in this Image of Sol currently that look like they are ready to start Peeling away from the Surface, Quoting: Spittin'Cesium Top-Right stretching through the Top-Mid Latitude and Mid-Bottom winding through to the Bottom-Left which already looks like it may already of began Peeling itself away from the Surface at the Time the Image was Taken.. [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] That sounds ominous. |
dutchies User ID: 1509707 Netherlands 10/01/2011 05:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | look at these images of the comet! Quoting: NiNzrez from LASCO C2 [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] from LASCO C3 [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] they have the images good questions is.... WHY they dont post them as updates images on the SOHO site? Not a one of those images would load for me. Just the little boxes with the red X inside. hmmm thats a computer issue move to firefox One has to live in the present. Whatever is past is gone beyond recall; whatever is future remains beyond one’s reach, until it becomes present. Remembering the past and giving thought to the future are important, but only to the extent that they help one deal with the present. |
one of the sheeples User ID: 2311617 United Kingdom 10/01/2011 05:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | look at these images of the comet! Quoting: NiNzrez from LASCO C2 [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] from LASCO C3 [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] they have the images good questions is.... WHY they dont post them as updates images on the SOHO site? Not a one of those images would load for me. Just the little boxes with the red X inside. hmmm thats a computer issue move to firefox I just tried firefox and chrome but I can't view the image either. |
One of the sheeples User ID: 2311617 United Kingdom 10/01/2011 05:31 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | look at these images of the comet! Quoting: NiNzrez from LASCO C2 [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] from LASCO C3 [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] they have the images good questions is.... WHY they dont post them as updates images on the SOHO site? Not a one of those images would load for me. Just the little boxes with the red X inside. hmmm thats a computer issue move to firefox Nope, nor with IE explorer I just tried firefox and chrome but I can't view the image either. |
disclosure_2011 User ID: 1544142 United States 10/01/2011 05:39 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Is it likely that the latest CME will be as powerful as the last one that hit but just as a glancing blow? Many scientists said that if that last one had been a direct hit it could have been very bad for us so that's what I am wondering. |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 1135433 United States 10/01/2011 05:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | look at these images of the comet! Quoting: NiNzrez from LASCO C2 [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] from LASCO C3 [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] they have the images good questions is.... WHY they dont post them as updates images on the SOHO site? Not a one of those images would load for me. Just the little boxes with the red X inside. hmmm damn here... look at all the top links in the while body area of the site [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1679900 United States 10/01/2011 05:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Is it likely that the latest CME will be as powerful as the last one that hit but just as a glancing blow? Many scientists said that if that last one had been a direct hit it could have been very bad for us so that's what I am wondering. Quoting: disclosure_2011 Keeping my fingers crossed that all will be ok. |
dutchies User ID: 1509707 Netherlands 10/01/2011 05:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | WHOOOOOP THERE IT IS! [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] look at that! One has to live in the present. Whatever is past is gone beyond recall; whatever is future remains beyond one’s reach, until it becomes present. Remembering the past and giving thought to the future are important, but only to the extent that they help one deal with the present. |
Vita User ID: 1334864 Netherlands 10/01/2011 05:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
dutchies User ID: 1509707 Netherlands 10/01/2011 05:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Houston, we have a problem... [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] One has to live in the present. Whatever is past is gone beyond recall; whatever is future remains beyond one’s reach, until it becomes present. Remembering the past and giving thought to the future are important, but only to the extent that they help one deal with the present. |
disclosure_2011 User ID: 1544142 United States 10/01/2011 05:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Is it likely that the latest CME will be as powerful as the last one that hit but just as a glancing blow? Many scientists said that if that last one had been a direct hit it could have been very bad for us so that's what I am wondering. Quoting: disclosure_2011 Keeping my fingers crossed that all will be ok. Is it confirmed that it will indeed be earth facing? Does not mean it could disrupt things all over the earth or will it depend on certain factors? |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 2437323 United States 10/01/2011 05:46 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Is it likely that the latest CME will be as powerful as the last one that hit but just as a glancing blow? Many scientists said that if that last one had been a direct hit it could have been very bad for us so that's what I am wondering. Quoting: disclosure_2011 WHOA! It's lookin' pretty serious to me. And don't forget that theres two smaller ones clearing a path for this one. [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] |
outofspace User ID: 1554303 Poland 10/01/2011 05:47 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 2437323 United States 10/01/2011 05:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Is it likely that the latest CME will be as powerful as the last one that hit but just as a glancing blow? Many scientists said that if that last one had been a direct hit it could have been very bad for us so that's what I am wondering. Quoting: disclosure_2011 WHOA! It's lookin' pretty serious to me. And don't forget that theres two smaller ones clearing a path for this one. [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] I've no idea why links aren't working. Go here to homepage of latest images and check out COR 2 and COR 2 Difference. [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] |
outofspace User ID: 1554303 Poland 10/01/2011 05:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Emergence Man User ID: 1529833 United States 10/01/2011 05:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1679900 United States 10/01/2011 05:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | look at these images of the comet! Quoting: NiNzrez from LASCO C2 [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] from LASCO C3 [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] they have the images good questions is.... WHY they dont post them as updates images on the SOHO site? Not a one of those images would load for me. Just the little boxes with the red X inside. hmmm damn here... look at all the top links in the while body area of the site [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] Thank you Nin! |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 1135433 United States 10/01/2011 05:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | i decided to go back over the images of the CMEs from earlier today Quoting: NiNzrez quite amazing what i found there was infact 3 CMEs from 3 separate sunspot regions. All 3 CMEs happened simultaneously directly after the the M1.0 that we had today [link to www.lmsal.com] here is the SDO image we will talk about [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] * here we can see a smaller CME from the directly facing sunspot region 1305 (in the middle. harder to see the CME because of the direct view) * a large CME from sunspot region 1302 that is hard to miss. (1302 is just to the right side of 1305) * and yet 1 more CME..... this one is off far to the west limb from sunspot region 1301 this makes the total of 3 CMEs that all occurred at the same time Amazing to see Edit: i would have used todays image from solen to show the sunspot regions were talking about here, but they mistakenly labled region 1302 as region 1305 [link to www.solen.info] so everyone knows, region 1302 is where they have the right hand side 1305 labled the real 1305 is the one to the left Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1517751 United States 10/01/2011 05:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 1135433 United States 10/01/2011 06:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | we can see the beginning of a backside CME here (on the right hand side of the image) [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] we can also see the tail section of the comet on the left (the line we see) Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |