SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Good morning and Namaste to all.

Good morning.

No GOES data for ~40 minutes?

Comet disintegrates over the surface of the Sun

this is some int stuff from the mrthewatcher...

if you watch closely you see a magnetic line jump up and fall aside as the comet passes...




[link to www.youtube.com]


and another clip zoomed in



[link to www.youtube.com]


offtopic but rly a cool tool (comets):
Thread: EYES on the SOLAR SYSTEM --- EXPLORE THE COSMOS

hmmm... many times over the last couple of days

anyone know why the streamer does not indicate any
CMEs impacting earth over the next few days...

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

i thought we were in store for at least three ...

That's a good question.

So we have 3 cme's headed our way? But nothing showing in the streamer? Why would they just make up data on the streamer? Could it be you are all wrong and there is nothing coming?

I'm new to this all, so forgive me. Been reading for a long time, first time writing.

I watched the video of the 3 cme's that came out of the sun after the comet inpact. Some questions:

1. which ones are earth directed. The first one was HUGE. How big are the other 2 in comparison to the average CME?

2. What you say is heading towards us. How big is it in terms of the regular hit? Seems to be the regular hits, even the "big" ones only get the kp up to 6. 7 if we are lucky. What kp do you expect this time?

3. When should we expect the kp to start going up?

4. Like i said above is it possible nothing is headed our way? And that streamer is correct? Are there any other places you can see data showing the cme's coming our way?

5. The streamer seems to show the 1st big cme impact from the comet. To me that's all I see. Is that what we are talking about? The lack of the other 2 cme's that you see in one of the stereo's? Why wouldn't they be here?

seems the brake is over..

Climbing...

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


EDIT:
false alert..

They've been spraying the skies where I live pretty heavily today. Quite a thick haze barrier they've made here.

UPDATE:
Early this morning, NOAA AR 1302 at the west limb produced a C7.6 flare. C-flares are rather likely, while the probability for an M-flare is below 50%. The Earth ward directed CME from Sept 30 (visible in STEREO A/COR2 at 19:54UT) is rather slow according to a speed estimate based on images from STEREO A/COR2: around 250 km/s. The CME of Oct 01 (visible in STEREO A/COR2 at 09:544UT) is probably slightly faster: 450 km/s. The CME of Oct 02 (visible in STEREO A/COR2 at 00:50UT) has an estimated speed of 500 km/s (based on STEREO A/COR2 images). These speed are rough estimates. The solar wind has a speed of 400 km/s at the moment. If the CME's of the past days would impact now, they will be relatively geo-silent. A CME arrival is possible from tomorrow onwards, the earliest. Unsettled to active conditions are possible.



:newspotsoct3:


A new sunspot is forming very high in latitude on Monday in the southern hemisphere. So far there is no chance for strong solar flares around this region.

There will remain the chance for isolated M-Class flares primarily around Sunspots 1302 and 1305.

IWTB, do we have CMEs heading our way from the flares on
the 1st and 2nd ?? I thought there were three.?.?

nothing on the streamer though...

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

sorry was posting the above question at same time you
were already answering it !!!

Hi,

from tomorrow onwards, lol me too^^

I have someone on twitter share this. I thought it was so funny, I would share with my friends on this thread..

[link to lockerz.com]

Hmm, not working. Nevermind till I figure out why this isn't working. LOL

Last Edited by Mahala on 10/03/2011 02:45 PM

and news from drkstrong:

THE SUN TODAY: 3 October 2011 - The Comet That Would Not Die!




[link to www.youtube.com]

Damn IWTB,...you are really kicking out the jams this fine day. Thanks, all very interesting stuff.

Happy day to everyone!




Z

Hi Zack!!

wish you a good day , we have nearly 10pm here..:D

Uh Oh,...better catch some sleep soon. I really appreciate all your efforts man. The dynamic kinetic nature of this thread, imo,...is due to the diversity of opinion/observation offered by the varying perspectives of all the posters from around the globe.

I believe examining all this well-presented solar data day after day here is expanding my consciousness.

MSM can't beat that.

Thanks again friend


Z

wow

up to that post i "saw" canada, because of your avatar and felt your personality never fitted your country

LOL
germany fits as a glove

weird i am sometimes

hello iwtb

Hi aether! lets drink some katla beers:katlaalebottles:

Great.... if it couldn't be bad enough, now China is mocking us. Check this out....

Article from BBC: [link to www.bbc.co.uk]



They launched their friggin space station with our song. Man, we really have spiraled downward as a country. We wave American flags that are made in China and the only thing in China that is made in America is our money.

You don't say.




Z

Niiiight all

According to Belgium's Solar Influence data Center (SIDC) there are 3 CME's expected. All three have slow velocity and mild to moderate geomagnetic disturbances are anticipated. These originated from #1305's recent M-flares of Sept. 30, Oct 1st, Oct. 2nd.
[link to sidc.oma.be]

SIDC bases their CME alerts on SOHO Lasco images; given the huge gaps we've seen in this imagery, alerts may be somewhat sketchy IMHO.
[link to sidc.oma.be]

Looking at the latest images from Stereo B HI2 I think we can expect the arrival of the CME that was ejected during the M1.0 flare that peaked at 19:03UT on 9/30/2011, within the next few hours. Here you can see the progression of the ICME across the Stereo B HI2 field of view.

For reference, in this first image from yesterday 10/02/2011 at 15:48UT we see that things are relatively unremarkable. See image below...
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

In this image (below)from from 3:48UT today 10/03/2011, we see an ICME wave enter the image from the left side, seen here as that shadowed Bow. Earth can be seen in this image, it is the small bright white dot with a line running down the image from it, and to the right of it Jupiter the black dot with a black line running down from it. The larger black dimple to the left is the star system Pleiades, light years off in the background.
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Here at 05:48UT today 10/03/2011, we see the progression of this ICME. See image below.
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

In this latest image from Stereo B HI2 at 15:48UT 10/03/2011, we can see that this ICME has made a rapid progression across the imagers field of view and is close approaching. See image below.
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
This looks even worse today

Wow! that is a substantial increase.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 Oct 03 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1302 (N13W69) produced the largest event of the
period, a C7/2n x-ray flare at 03/0030Z. Region 1302 remains the
largest sunspot group on the visible disk but has begun to simplify
magnetically and decrease in size. Many of the regions on the disk,
also appear to be in a waning phase. In the southeast quadrant of
the disk, two new flux regions emerged with one becoming new Region
1310 (S33E16).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels for the next two days (04-05 October), as Region 1302
rotates off the west limb. Predominantly very low levels are
expected to prevail on day three (06 October).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,
show nominal speeds around 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04 October). An increase
to active and possible minor storm levels is expected on days two
and three (05-06 October) as three Earthbound CMEs are forecasted
to arrive.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M 20/15/01
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 129
Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 03 Oct 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 005/005-015/015-018/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/35
Minor storm 01/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/40/40
Minor storm 05/30/30
Major-severe storm 01/05/05


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA forcasting this 1st CME to arrive 5 full days after it erupted.
WOW!

I guess we will will see!

Great info, Tom. That wave is clearly visible in the images. Magnetic field lines have been slowly opening up. Nothing too dramatic, though. Quiet day so far.
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Woah... WTF is happening on the other side of the sun? Is that normal?