SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

rly i love you hugh!

or better your knowledge, hehe^^



ISWA has an Alert now (CME from this morning)

Event Issue Date: 2011-11-26 17:53:45.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-11-28 14:23:08.0 GMT



[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]



and have a look IswaCygnetStreamer:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 November 2011

A long duration C1 flare was observed at 26/0710Z in
conjunction with an eruptive filament channel near Region 1353
(N08W49). A full halo CME, first observed in C2 imagery at 26/0712Z,
was also associated with this event.


At around 26/0840Z, signatures from the ACE spacecraft indicated
elevated levels of greater than 10 MeV protons. This increase was
associated with the eruptive filament channel, CME, and C1 flare
mentioned earlier. A greater than 10 MeV proton at geosynchronous
orbit began at 26/1125Z. Max flux for this event, thus far, was 54
pfu at 26/2055Z. This proton event was still in progress when this
report was issued.


Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at predominantly quiet levels on day one (27
November). An increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm conditions is expected on days two and three (28-29
November). These elevated conditions are the result of the combined
effects of a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective
early on day two, and the arrival of today's full halo CME late on
day two or early on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 90/10/01

[link to www.spaceref.com]

hugh. 76.

impressive

thank you

Last Edited by aether on 11/26/2011 05:44 PM

Hmm Solarham says the cme is not earth directed but Spaceweather says it is. Who's right? I think it's the most massive cme I've seen on the simulation.
Also what does the current radiation storm tell us about the cme?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This model indicates it will miss us

This should be a good head-to-head test of the two prediction models. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis system (iSWA/NASA) Cygnet Streamer shows arrival at Earth on 11/28 @approx. 15:00 UTC with more than a glancing shot. The new NOAA ENLIL CME SW model shows a near-miss or glancing blow on 11/30. Two very different looking models-we'll have to wait and see.

SEEDS Movie of CME and shock-wave.

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

SOHO C3 image from 10:06 UTC:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

NOAA Proton Event ....WARNING-Persistence -for the next 12 hours!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 11/26/2011 08:57 PM

nice hugh

Thank you guys, hugh and 76.

Great work!

Wow! Great info. Thanks Hugh and IWTB. Wow again.

thanks for all of the awesome info. 5***** !

UPDATE: USAF's Super secret robot spaceplane X-37b--will its batteries run out or do they have a super secret battery charger? Who knows.


[link to www.space-travel.com]


FLASHBACK: The most powerful proton storm ever recorded-January 20, 2005.


[link to science.nasa.gov]

GoodMorning all,


have to do some stuff at home today...cya later

:solarwatch:

ps: thx all:hf:

Seems they have updated this to show the CME hitting earth [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

of course it does. can one of the two smart dudes on here tell us in simple terms, what will happen. and can you fearful mice not chime in with dis info, thanx.

okay a majority of the CME was directed to the west and away from Earth, however this full halo event does have a weaker Eastern flank which may still impact Earth within 48 hours

While Earth does not appear to be in the path of the core CME,so it will be a flank impact

:cmenov26:

:latestcmenov2609:


[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]


The partial halo CME associated with the filament eruption
to the west of region 1353. The arrival of the corresponding
ICME at the Earth is expected in the evening of November 28 till
morning of November 29. Configurations of the photospheric
magnetic field and post-eruptive arcade indicate that a
possible magnetic cloud will most probably have left-handed
chirality and will be inclined at around 45 degrees to the
ecliptic plane, with southward interplanetary magnetic field in
the leading part of the cloud. A major geomagnetic storm will
be possible.


Well, kevin has a rly good img of the cme cloud

:expandingcmeClou:
Enlarge
[link to www.solarham.com]

NOAA issues : Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1840
Issue Time: 2011 Nov 27 0744 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2011 Nov 27 0743 UTC
Valid To: 2011 Nov 27 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Also a 12 hour continuation of proton event persistence:

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 334
Issue Time: 2011 Nov 27 1138 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 333
Valid From: 2011 Nov 26 1120 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2011 Nov 28 0200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Something may be knocking at the door. Don't ya hate when guests arrive early?

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Aother video look at yesyerday's CME from STEREO Ahead(Earth is to the left):

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Hi back,



we have a nice farside CME actually....(not earth directed)


[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]




:cmenov27:
latest img STEREO AHEAD:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

bit of a heavy read

The energetic storm particle event of October 20, 1989

[link to umbra.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to www.am.ub.es]

enjoy

more on magfields:

this link geomag.usgs.gov/intro.php leads to a 2008 .pdf titled "Magnetic monitoring of Earth and space". It goes into mag-sensor instrumentation, measurement history and shows a few study results.

i took a screen shot of one page in particular. The image can be found here : [link to www.bigupload.com]

it shows the daily variation in magfield strength (H component actually) from 5 different locations. Notice the largest change happens at equatorial latitudes...

i wish they (these data) had been plotted according to a zero time base rather than normalized to 'local time'. and further that a proper amplitude scale were included: from this graph, it looks as if the field strength at the equator more than quadruples daily.

i found the previous while locking into the nature of Sol's magfield. This article [link to science.nasa.gov] states that large proton storms happen (within minutes it turns out) after earth directed flares happen while the earth happens to be sitting in one of the sun's magfield spokes.

this article [link to www-istp.gsfc.nasa.gov] explains the shape of the spokes in very simple terms.

haven't found it yet, but i'm looking for data that describes the rate of rotation of these magfield spokes and possibly some measurement of their current location.

it seems to me that if we knew when the earth was and was not inside one of these spokes, we'd be able to predict geomag responces to flares and CMEs better, no?

more later...

thx for the reminder



thats a biggie

STEREO A 15:24
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Okay i recognize something in latest Stereo A Movie...


the cme is farside but if you look closely something is heading in earth direction


Stereo A Movie:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]


:cmenov27:



:cmenov271539:
Enlarge
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]


i checked also SDO and there is some rly cool activity

will upload a movie soon

Check out Stereo Ahead COR2, WOW!!!

[link to www.youtube.com]


and plz have a look to the left...

Latest IMG STEREO A C2 17:24

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]



Movie:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Haramein on the Sun

[link to www.youtube.com]

Earth Is Not Orbiting The Sun

[link to www.youtube.com]

Interesting loop from GONG network shows a filament (located center-north) blown away by a flare from 1356 and then magnetically pulled back into its original position. Fascinating....had the flare been stronger the filament would've probably been shot into space. We'll have to watch and see how long it remains.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

ACE Protons still high:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES protons high but falling:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Tromso K-index at 4-Unsettled

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]

Very Nice IWTB!
Love the audio that goes with it!
Thank you!

mhh, this is rly crazy Hugh...and soon 1339 is in game^^

SDO from today shows some huge activity on this incoming site maybe i will upload it later or tommorow..u can clearly see a flare from that region






your welcome and thx

Hey, great job as usual!

The globs of sun-stuff seen in this STEREO A HI 2 image is evidently in the foreground between the ST. A spacecraft and the Earth. But stay alert as some of this is heading our soon.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

No signs of any shock wave hitting us yet although there has been some minor geo-magnetic disturbances.

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

Keep an eye on NICT simulation for any spikes in density or pressure:

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Haha,

thx but you come always with the real shit :P

hi hugh have to sleep! im a bit tired...thx for this cool stuff again

if u have time plz watch sdo...you can see a flare took place from the new region which rotate into view soon (1339, and before a smaller one)

also in the mid of solar disc some filament erruption and in the east limb also <----caused the farside cme???


cya