SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Hello, Finley,of course we missed you and NINzrez too. Seems a lot of CMEs in the past week are going to miss us, too. We've been too lucky to have all this action going to the right and to the left-almost every big CME blasts off at 90 degree angle to Earth. Divine intervention maybe?

Here's a 24-hr animation of the magnetopause:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

If you let it play through, at around 16:00 you can see the shockwave push towards the circle (the geosynchronus satellite orbit).

GOES plots still show activity:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE proton density is back up to 13.7 p/cu cm:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NICT shows lots of pressure and Bz is flipping back to North at the moment.

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 12/02/2011 07:57 PM

Thanks and a good night to you, old guard.

I'm having trouble getting these images small enuf to upload. I meant to put them in my last post-oh,well here's a sreen shot from the manetopause cygnet.
:Magpause:

Had to crop the NICT pressure animation.
:pressure1203:

Canada Space Weather has changed their web address-in case you want to update your bookmark.

[link to www.spaceweather.ca]

So. African space weather:

[link to spaceweather.hmo.ac.za]

And China's solar observatory seems to rely heavily on American and Japanese data. Hmmm.
[link to rwcc.bao.ac.cn]

Japan's Solar observatory links:

[link to solarwww.mtk.nao.ac.jp]

So when SOHO goes down the whole world is at NASA's mercy, LOL.

What's this guy saying about the magnetosphere heating up?

That it's not coming from the sun, but from the Earth???

Anyone understand what's really happening?

[link to www.youtube.com]

Cool and Thank You Hugh!!

Thanks Aether. Hi IWTB

Well that's Dutchsinse and he overreacts sometimes (IMHO) and it's probably a cme. Yes I can almost guarantee it's a cme that is hitting us. NASA and many sites, Spaceweather etc...tend to be behind on their updates. There have been a lot of near misses from our friend the sun. More than not they will update after the happening.

This is one of the reasons we are so happy with this thread. We can keep each other aware of what's going on. Many times the regular Solar sites will be missing data and you have to check them from all over the world to get a clue. Hugh has some spaceweather sites linked above.

"The solar wind also carries with it the magnetic field of the Sun. This field will have either a North or South orientation. If the solar wind has energetic bursts, contracting and expanding the magnetosphere, or if the solar wind takes a southward polarization, geomagnetic storms can be expected. The southward field causes magnetic reconnection of the dayside magnetopause, rapidly injecting magnetic and particle energy into the Earth's magnetosphere"

does anybody know if this is whats happening

The model from NICT is a realtime simulation based on data from the ACE spacecraft so it's impossible for it to show anything coming FROM Earth. The ACE satellite orbits at the LaGrange position about 1 million miles from Earth-between the Sun and Earth.
[link to media.caltech.edu]

The ACE data is fed into computer simulation in Japan at NICT.

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Anyway, so far geo-magnetic activity is Quiet as measured by the Kp Index (K=2 on a scale of 0-9). I do find it strange however that the pressure in the simulation looks so intense for such a weak disturbance. There was a forecast for increased solar wind due to coronal hole windstream. Earlier today I personally forecast a magnetic disturbance from some solar plasma ejected from a CME earlier in the week (I think it's on the page before this one).

HOLD THE PRESSES! NOAA ISSUES WARNING.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1846
Issue Time: 2011 Dec 03 0025 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2011 Dec 03 0130 UTC
Valid To: 2011 Dec 03 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

All in all, this appears to nothing more than a weak disturbance. Although quiet earlier, Canada is now seeing some auroral activity.

[link to www.spaceweather.ca]

Latest SW data from ACE:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

It happens quite often. The southward line is when the Bz vector is a negative number or simply denoted "south". Right now it's 5.5 north, but earlier it was southward-it sometimes flips back and forth. Read this link -below the graphic.

[link to spaceweather.com]

On the NICT sim. there's a graph Bz; where it's RED means south and the GREEN is north. Generally the farther south, the better chance for aurora and strong geo-storms. But that's not always the case, haha.

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

I had to dig this up for anyone wishing to understand more of this confusing stuff. NINzrez has a tutorial on the magnetosphere on page of this special thread. Thank you, NINzrez.

Thread: NICT Magnetosphere Guide For Solar Watchers (service eneded)

Latest GOES plots show continued activity:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Thanks Hugh!!

There was another large CME near the sun's north pole a few hours ago. Most likely this was another filament blasting off. This was not Earth-facing. SOHO and STEREO A were both asleep at the time (doh!) but I found a pic of the aftermath from SOHO Coronagraph 3.
:cme1203:

Finley, you may want to see what you missed last week. SOHO has posted a composite movie of 12 CMEs in 8 days. Very impressive performance.

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Circle Dec. 15 on your calendar-it's SOHO's birthday! And a very bright comet may be crashing the party.

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]


Oh, and here's SOHO Cor2 pic of the last CME.
:cmecor2:

OMG, if only it were earth facubg then we would have a good chance of the monsters in power to be without such. So, what hit us this afternoon? The Magsphere was hit with something, does anyone know what happened?

SUNSPOT UPDATE:


Region 1356 rotated over the north-west limb while a new region 1365 emerged on the north-east limb


This group showed steady growth

However, region 1363 doubled in size yesterday to 250 millionths and was a EHI type group


Several C1 solar flares took place, which is not that much higher than the background X-ray flux level

C class flares are expected with the slightest chance of an M class flare from regions 1363 and 1365, if growth continues


:1363grows:
Image shows region 1363 on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd around 0800z everyday

CloseUP Region 1363 Helioviewer Movie:
[link to helioviewer.org]

Stormy Sun could knock out power grids...


Thread: Stormy Sun could knock out power grids...

Last Edited by aether on 12/03/2011 07:04 AM

THX, aether saw this..finally msm reports^^

[link to semiconductorfilms.com]

sry mistake...have to reupload it

sometimes i really hate looking for specific stuff onna web.

i am trying to find web sites (preferably three: each getting data from a different location on the planet) that provide geomagnetic data in a useful form. by usefull i mean : includes all three vector components (x,y,z or h,d,z) and provided in a list form.

i found one site : [link to omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov] but i don't know the actual location of the sensor(s).

i checked the list provided in this thread without success.

so i ask u guyz: got any links to data sites that provide the magnetometer data in (mostly) real time?

[link to www.youtube.com]

nice link Hugh.

from further down the chain.

quoting from [link to sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil]

"1540UT: This is a good time to add in notes of caution about this object as I don't want this to turn into some "Elenin-like" event whereby folks get whipped up into a frenzy about an object that ultimately does not perform. So here it is: we only have a few rather mediocre observations of this comet, it is still very faint (mag 15), and is already a difficult object to observe due to its location in space. Several possibilities exist now:
1. It could be a huge bright Kreutz, like the "great" comets of the 1880's, or Ikeya-Seki in 1965
2. It could just be a nice bright Kreutz like some of the ones we've seen over the past couple of years in SOHO and STEREO
3. It could be a somewhat large but not altogether enormously bright Kreutz like Comet White in 1945
4. It could be too fragile and disintegrate before it reaches out cameras
If I had to guess, I'd say somewhere between #1 and #2 is what we'll get -- a pretty big, bright Kreutz with a nice bright tail. I base this prediction entirely on speculation and hope. "

this will be a good time to watch solar dynamics carefully and see if Sol reacts to the impact the way it did a coupla months ago.

indecently, i heard "around" that some folks are expecting the sun to act up a bunch come mid December: we shall see.

and finally, geofield summery:

at least according to the HAARP sensors, the geofield is still in a 'wonky' state and as far as i can tell: there are no obvious causes.

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

you can see some reflection of this in the Russian data:

starting roughly on the 20th [link to forecast.izmiran.rssi.ru]


when i have my data sources lined up properly, i should be able to creaet a composite 'image' or planetary EEG if you will.

then like the pyschs do with human EEGs, we attempt to correlate....

well, do it learner sounds great:robonautweight:

I asked DrStrong about the magnetosphere disturbance last night and this was his reply:

"The z compenent of the solar wind switched polarity (twice) but there seemed no response from either the aural zone or the Kp index. So I assume it was that western CME that I mentioned a couple of days ago that did indeed brush by us and all the other factors made it have minimal geoeffectiveness."

well, drStrong...

yep, i guess he should know about the coronal hole

and this from spaceweather:

"During the early hours of Dec. 3rd, the IMF tipped south, partially cancelling Earth's north-pointing magnetic field; solar wind poured through the breach to fuel the display. NOAA forecasters estimate a 14% chance of similar events tonight."

yep, matchs absolutley with the earth facing coronal hole past days ago

Hi, learner, here's some links to global geophysical data & magnetograms. You may have to make use of google translate for some of them.

[link to www.ises-spaceweather.org]

Space Weather Canada-check the links on the righthand side of page:

[link to www.spaceweather.ca]

Australia:

[link to www.ips.gov.au]

Russia:

[link to ipg.geospace.ru]

Norway:

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]