SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Thank you - I'll see if I can find some links, mostly this is about observing events and data and making connections, and such...without applying any sort of scientifically accepted theory at first...

Some things are easy to hide, or manipulate... some things are not...

NASA usually just stops posting data - and do not even bother to explain why?

Good guess is that the data that the public sees, might be filtered from time to time...

Anomalous events are easier to discard than to explain
Just my 0.2ct worth

Two things I`ve been noticing as well:

Sunspots as of late are very quiet (but there are more filaments). I am no expert on this, but would anybody find it reasonable to explain this with the Ap index at a record low at the moment?



With the sun having a weak magnetic field (what the Ap index measures) the plasma on the photosphere might be able to more easily "drift" into the corona- making more filaments appear (this is a guess on my side).

This might in turn also make sunspots less active.


The other significant anomaly is the already pointed out upward trend in cosmic rays which should not be happening this far into solar max. The explanation again would be the decreasing strength of sun`s magnetic field (as this allows more cosmic rays to reach earth). There has been a major shift in November (note that this correlates very well with the last 2 dots on the chart above)

Yes that would be most helpful Professor Mobiius. A friend and myself are most interested in what you are posting here.

We appreciate your efforts on pointing us in a direction where we may learn more and gain a broader perspective.

Thank you!

Hi all,


im back but much to read now...:D

Hello, Nacht, I'm sorry to have to correct you, friend, but the Ap Index does not measure the sun's magnetic field. It's a measurement of variations in Earth's magnetic field--sort of a planetary-wide Kp index. As you probably know the Kp Index is localized and varies from station to station. Of course it's very much influenced by the solar wind, CMEs, etc.
[link to www.nwra.com]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I wouldn't put much stock into that Russian Cosmic Ray chart. If you go back in this thread to Nov. 21 or 22 there was a whole "panic" over this cosmic ray variation spike--it was "the biggest in 60 years!"-it was off the charts. Well look at it now--the giant spike of Nov. 21 isn't there anymore.
[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

If you're interested in cosmic rays the best site is the ICETOP South Pole Neutron Monitor. If you scroll down you'll see nothing noteworthy in the neutron counts.
[link to www.bartol.udel.edu]

[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]

We must realize solar winds and solar coronal weather are much like our weather--one day is calm and sunny, then BAM!-you have a devastating tornado. It's somewhat unpredictable, which is why it's so exciting to observe.
You're correct about the increase in filaments. To my knowledge, there's a general lack of understanding among heliophysicist eggheads as to how these are formed. More research must be gathered in this area. They can cause bigger CMEs than solar flares sometimes and again they are unpredictable.

[link to solar.physics.montana.edu]

from spaceweather: "Earth is entering a minor solar wind stream that could spark auroras around the Arctic Circle."

Howdy, friend, you ain't missed much. NINzrez checked in yesterday and disappeared again. Keep an eye out for filament eruptions, eh.

Speaking of filament eruptions, we've had a couple overnight. An Earth-facing CME has been detected on both STEREO spacecraft.
STEREO Ahead(Earth to left):
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Behind(Earth to right):
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

On the GONG movie loop two filaments-one in the NW and one north-central disappear.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Hi my friend...well i read that and i have to say you and all the other's around here made a great job here!


Upload a SolarWach vid soon here...^^

Im happy and glad to see ya all (holiday now till 1/3/11, hehe)

SolarWatch--Large Filament Eruption--12/11/11




[link to www.youtube.com]

SOHO Cor 2 imagery-which is the main resource for CME modeling- has been dark for 33 HOURS!!! WTF? This CME may hit us in the nuts with NASA's pants down again. After they just held another doom-filled space weather conference last week. As I've said too many times, if a Carrington-type event happens it will be pure serendipity if NASA's monitoring network is working as designed. Keep in mind the Carrington Event plasma blast hit Earth in less than 18 hours! If NASA's on holiday or hung-over or holding a fancy luncheon we'll never know what hit us--and all of this solar monitoring was a huge waste of time and money.

I must apologize to NASA, their webmaster at SOHO public website must have the day off, but at least the military has SOHO data ( I feel safer now).
[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

:cmediff1211:
Above image timestamp 06:36. Below is much later at 15:54. There are still big gaps in data.
:cme1211c3:

SEEDS has a CME movie based on the STEREO Ahead data:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

It looks to me that this may become geo-effective although most of the mass is blasted above the ecliptic.

SIDC's latest alert notes the first filament eruption at 06:00UTC and predicts it will NOT be geo-effective.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

We' ll know for sure Tues. or Wed.

hehe


yep, sidc was wrong also in the last time...


It will be a flank impact for sure

Well done Hugh!

Excellent job, IWTB, we've missed your famous videos.

Thx Hugh!

but its the work from us all together


i will upload the Intro file, everyone from this team here can use it then if she or he wants

thanks Hugh for your elaborate response. I am just a bit confused because I read this definition of the Ap index as well:

The Sun’s magnetic field extends far out into space. It not only surrounds Earth, it also extends well beyond Pluto. The more powerful the Sun’s magnetic field, the more it alters the Earth’s geomagnetic field. The Ap index is measure of this alteration. The Ap index measurements began in the 1930’s. The chart that follows shows the Ap index beginning in 2000 through most of 2010. The peak in the 2003 -2004 time frame is Cycle 23. The Solar activity was high during that time, reaching an Ap index of 35 at its peak. In October 2005, the Ap Index dropped significantly and has remained very low since then.

[link to cbdakota.wordpress.com]

And it does make sense to say if the geomagnetic activity on earth is weaker that the sun`s activity would be lower as well. Doesn`t a lower activity imply also a weaker magnetic field of the sun? Maybe that`s what I got wrong.


I remember the day with all the hype form the Moscow Neutron Monitor station as well. But I have to diagree with you in that I don`t think that it was "only" an anomaly. There is a clear upward trend from this day onward. It is even better visible here:

[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

If the trend would have been ongoing it should still be somewhere around -10 compared to the -2 where it is now. (note that it slowly increased in one month from -3 to-2 on the hourly chart)

This almost certainly has to be related with the waning activity on the sun atm. Again, thanks for correcting me.

Hey, I'm no expert in this field. Everything I know about sun-Earth geomagnetic relationships and cosmic rays I've learned on this thread or research inspired by this thread (thank you, NINzrez!). The Ap index is a more long-range indicator of solar-influenced geomagnetic activity. In general it should rise with higher solar activity, but many other factors are involved on a daily, weekly, short-term basis. What if 90% of the X-flares happen on the far side? They'd have little effect on Earth therefore little effect on the Ap Index. Solar events like large CMEs only effect our magnetosphere if they hit us. This doesn't mean a lack of solar activity, just weak Earth-directed effects. Over time this should all even out and when we look back at the figures a couple of years from now we'll have a better grasp of what happened. As I've noted before, most of these strong flares and big CMEs have not been facing Earth.

RE: Cosmic Rays....Until someone can explain to me what the hell the Russian graph shows, I won't put too much stock in it. It shows a percentage variance over time of 1 to minus 8. What does that mean ? VARIATION to what? Yesterday's graph or some arbitrary mean of "normal" cosmic rays. Nothing on that site explains their graph. Neutrons must be measured from many stations to have any meaning. Cosmic rays are very scattered and there is no uniform flow to measure. Whenever the solar wind slows down more cosmic rays are allowed to interact with Earth. Again we may see trends over the course of a solar cycle or a half-cycle, but these daily or weekly measurements tell us very little IMO. In any case I prefer to trust the South Pole Neutron Monitor.

Thanks for the link to the climate article. I agree the sun's magnetosphere goes out to where the Voyagers 1&2 are exploring and measuring the solar wind-far beyond Pluto's orbit. The solar wind here and out there is gusty and clumpy. It's effects on Earth have a lot to do with the Parker spiral as well as the N-S directional electromagnetic charge of the ion stream. What we can measure from Earth (K-index, Ap Index, HAARP, etc) is only local weather effects.

After reviewing the data I've come to the conclusion that 2 CMEs are both Earth-directed. The second one (at approx. 10:00UTC) seemed to be much stronger and will probably merge with the earlier one. Screw the experts-I'm calling for intense auroras Tues. night somewhere.
In the STEREO A Cor 2 images you can see the first CME appear as an outer shell or shockwave in front of the second, more violent CME. These images were taken 45 mins. apart.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO B image (30 mins after that) also shows two separate shocks:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

We can already see a shockwave entering the view of the Behind HI1 image:


[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

ELECTRIC UNIVERSE UPDATE: I received this email today......


THUNDERBOLTS PROJECT
Update
December 11, 2011



ELECTRIC UNIVERSE—THE EMERGING VANGUARD

Call it progress by surprise. It's now clear that many more exceptional scholars and scientists have been following our work than anyone had realized. That's the explanation for a fact we've mentioned before but not attempted to explain: that graduate education levels of visitors to the Thunderbolts site exceed those of almost any other science site you'll find on the Internet.

Our liaison with the best experts in the science, including individuals responsible for essential aspects of the space program, is paying off. For obvious reasons we keep these communications confidential, but here are two names we can mention now because they will be SPEAKERS at the upcoming Las Vegas conference:

James Ryder, former head of the Lockheed Martin solar physics laboratory (foremost laboratory of its type), speaking on the remarkable surprises of the IBEX mission;

Montgomery ("Monty") Childs, lead engineer for the Canadian National Research Council's rocket design to measure Oxygen in the upper atmosphere, now proposing a definitive experiment to test the electric sun hypothesis.

(More information on both presentations will be forthcoming this coming week.)

Also worth mentioning is the fact that we have attracted to our conference the most impressive scientists of the Natural Philosophy Alliance. At the same time, we are attracting large numbers of lay people who simply want to know. The Electric Universe connects with people at the level of their deepest personal interests. Things that always seemed obscure suddenly make sense. No message has been stated to us more frequently by the newly inspired crowd around us. Remote events in the cosmos, regional events in the solar system, our own planetary history, the electricity of life, quantum mysteries, and the evolution of human consciousness all find their place on a more unified conceptual landscape. The universe is not just a collection of fragments for specialized investigation and mathematical abstractions. Now, wherever we look in the cosmos, the electric force is active, unifying the fragments and achieving feats that were simply off the grid of "settled science" just a
few years ago.

Details on the Las Vegas Conference, Jan 6-8, 2012:
www.thunderbolts.info/eu2012

Video preview of the conference:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HTmd6Sv148

Listen to Wal Thornhill’s interview with Liam Sheff on the Robert Scott Bell Show
[link to www.thunderbolts.info]
____________________________________
Thought I would share...are you out there Aether & Finley?

got it as well. I would just love to attend!

this is from their last conference:

I wouldn't put much stock into that Russian Cosmic Ray chart. If you go back in this thread to Nov. 21 or 22 there was a whole "panic" over this cosmic ray variation spike--it was "the biggest in 60 years!"-it was off the charts. Well look at it now--the giant spike of Nov. 21 isn't there anymore.
[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

nope, it's still there, if you choose to view "days"

GoodMorning all


new Solar Watch



[link to www.youtube.com]

Goddard Year In Review: Heliophysics
12.12.11

These stories, images and videos represent some of the 2011 highlights in the field of heliophysics, the study of the sun and its interactions with Earth and other bodies. All the content showcased here bears some connection to NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center...

rly awesome vid's

ReadMore:
[link to www.nasa.gov]

The first realtime "playback" image from STEREO/SECCHI HI-1B of Comet Lovejoy



[link to www.youtube.com]

G'day, IWTB, excellent find! Watch vids in full screen-WOW. Don't forget Comet Lovejoy coming Wednesday.

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

great video..I just added this to my Comet thread.. thanks!

Last Edited by RTS REDUX on 12/12/2011 12:30 PM

Well thx dudes!!!