SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) | |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 7015899 United States 12/12/2011 10:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | :Issued: 2011 Dec 12 1304 UTC :Product: documentation at [link to www.sidc.be] #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 11212 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Dec 2011, 1256UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 12 Dec 2011 until 14 Dec 2011) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Dec 2011 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 004 PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Dec 2011 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 004 PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Dec 2011 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 004 COMMENT: The solar background GOES X-ray flux is just below C-level, which means that C-flares are probable during the next 24 hours. A large filament eruption took place in the NE quadrant of th solar disk on Dec 11, around 6:00UT. Coronagraphic beacon data from STEREO show that the associated CME possibly has a component directed to the Earth. However, given the weak velocity of 300 km/s we do not expect that a geomagnetic storm will be related to this event. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 48 hours. That's an extremely slow CME! I thought a second CME occurred several hours after the first. I also thought the second one looked more powerful and more Earth-directed. Oh, well, here's two SEEDS movies--one from each event. [link to spaceweather.gmu.edu] [link to spaceweather.gmu.edu] The latest Cygnet Streamer model only shows one CME but possibly they've merged together. It appears to be another "glancing blow". If the two have merged it would tend to be more geo-effective IMO. [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 12/12/2011 10:15 PM |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 5212000 United States 12/12/2011 10:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | from spaceweather: A comet nearly as wide as two football fields (200m) is plunging toward the sun where it will most likely be destroyed in a spectacular light show on Dec. 15/16. Although Comet Lovejoy (C/2011 W3) could become as bright as Jupiter or Venus when it "flames out," the glare of the sun will hide the event from human eyes. Solar observatories in space, however, will have a grand view. Yesterday the brightening comet entered the field of view of NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft. "You can clearly see the comet heading diagonally through the images," says Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab who prepared the animation. "During the 16-hour sequence, the comet brightens from magnitude +8 to +6.5, approximately." It will soon grow much brighter. "This comet is a true sungrazer, and will skim approximately 140,000 km (1.2 solar radii) above the solar surface on Dec. 15/16," notes Battams. At such close range, solar heating will almost certainly destroy the icy interloper,creating a cloud of vapor and comet dust that will reflect lots of sunlight. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) will have a particularly good view. Discovered on Dec. 2nd by amateur astronomer Terry Lovejoy of Australia, the comet is an unusually large member of the Kreutz family. Kreutz sungrazers are fragments of a single giant comet (probably the Great Comet of 1106) that broke apart back in the 12th century. SOHO sees one plunging into the sun every few days, but most are small, no more than 10 meters wide. Comet Lovejoy is at least ten times larger than usual. Stay tuned for updates. |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 7015899 United States 12/12/2011 10:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 7015899 United States 12/12/2011 11:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | For some reason the Cygnet Streamer has erased the recent CME model. So due to NASA's screw-up I'll post the NOAA Enlil CME model (which I don't care for as it sometimes messes up my browser). [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 7015899 United States 12/13/2011 12:00 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Rain-Man User ID: 7031615 Bosnia and Herzegovina 12/13/2011 12:20 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The first realtime "playback" image from STEREO/SECCHI HI-1B of Comet Lovejoy Quoting: IwantToBelieve76 [link to www.youtube.com] Thread: Most Dangerous Time for Strong Earthquakes in 2012, Super Full Moon, Alignment of Earth-Sun-Jupiter, Venus Transit, Solar Eclipse over USA & JP Thread: Strange Sounds,Strange Rumblings, Sonic Booms, The Hum, Groaning, Earthquake Connection, Electromagnetic Voices, Post Your Recordings Here EARTHQUAKE FORECAST [link to igipop.webs.com] |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 7015899 United States 12/13/2011 02:24 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | There's been another large filament eruption w/CME on the southwest limb near AR11367. I don't think this one is geo-effective but it's possible. Still waiting for retarded SOHO data (7 hrs. late again!) STEREO A image: :cme1213: This short H-Alpha loop shows the fat filament fly off in the SW: [link to halpha.nso.edu] Two hi-res AIA 304a images from SDO (I can't wait for IWTB76's movie in the morning!): [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Time to sleep, goodnight all. |
aether User ID: 1412926 United Kingdom 12/13/2011 03:57 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | After reviewing the data I've come to the conclusion that 2 CMEs are both Earth-directed. The second one (at approx. 10:00UTC) seemed to be much stronger and will probably merge with the earlier one. Screw the experts-I'm calling for intense auroras Tues. night somewhere. Quoting: Hugh M Eye In the STEREO A Cor 2 images you can see the first CME appear as an outer shell or shockwave in front of the second, more violent CME. These images were taken 45 mins. apart. [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] STEREO B image (30 mins after that) also shows two separate shocks: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] We can already see a shockwave entering the view of the Behind HI1 image: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 5263313 United States 12/13/2011 08:36 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 12/13/2011 09:55 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hi all, some Update : Three regions disappeared yesterday which leaves only 4 groups visible :sunspotstoday: Enlarge: [link to www.solarham.com] The largest and most interesting is region 1374 [link to www.solarham.com] Even though, it decreased in size over the last 24 hours to 150 millionths, its magnetic complexity increased to a Beta-Gamma Only 2 small C1 class solar flares took place yesterday, only one from region 1374. Further C class flares are expected and the possibility of a M class cannot be totally ruled out :magneticfieldspo: Image from SDO shows the magnetic footprint of region 137 with the Beta-Gamma area circled We have also another filament eruption on the south west Watch Helioviewer Movie Fulldisc: [link to helioviewer.org] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1757117 United Kingdom 12/13/2011 10:03 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | SOHO Cor 2 imagery-which is the main resource for CME modeling- has been dark for 33 HOURS!!! WTF? This CME may hit us in the nuts with NASA's pants down again. After they just held another doom-filled space weather conference last week. As I've said too many times, if a Carrington-type event happens it will be pure serendipity if NASA's monitoring network is working as designed. Keep in mind the Carrington Event plasma blast hit Earth in less than 18 hours! If NASA's on holiday or hung-over or holding a fancy luncheon we'll never know what hit us--and all of this solar monitoring was a huge waste of time and money. Quoting: Hugh M Eye I must apologize to NASA, their webmaster at SOHO public website must have the day off, but at least the military has SOHO data ( I feel safer now). [link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil] :cmediff1211: Above image timestamp 06:36. Below is much later at 15:54. There are still big gaps in data. :cme1211c3: SEEDS has a CME movie based on the STEREO Ahead data: [link to spaceweather.gmu.edu] It looks to me that this may become geo-effective although most of the mass is blasted above the ecliptic. SIDC's latest alert notes the first filament eruption at 06:00UTC and predicts it will NOT be geo-effective. [link to sidc.oma.be] We' ll know for sure Tues. or Wed. "Keep in mind the Carrington Event plasma blast hit Earth in less than 18 hours!" Carrington observed a flare and 18 hours later something hit the Earth. Nothing other than speculation to be said beyond that, unfortunately. No evidence that the observed was connected to the event. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 12/13/2011 10:21 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hi all, Quoting: IwantToBelieve76 some Update : Three regions disappeared yesterday which leaves only 4 groups visible :sunspotstoday: Enlarge: [link to www.solarham.com] The largest and most interesting is region 1374 [link to www.solarham.com] Even though, it decreased in size over the last 24 hours to 150 millionths, its magnetic complexity increased to a Beta-Gamma Only 2 small C1 class solar flares took place yesterday, only one from region 1374. Further C class flares are expected and the possibility of a M class cannot be totally ruled out :magneticfieldspo: Image from SDO shows the magnetic footprint of region 137 with the Beta-Gamma area circled We have also another filament eruption on the south west Watch Helioviewer Movie Fulldisc: [link to helioviewer.org] and a close Up Filament eruption...: right before the lift off u can see a small flare from region 1367 which rotates out of view now [link to helioviewer.org] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 5212000 United States 12/13/2011 12:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 6459914 United States 12/13/2011 12:59 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | December's Geminid Meteor Shower Peaks Tonight The Geminid meteor shower peaks tonight (Dec. 13), but interested skywatchers might have to battle chilly temperatures and bright moonlight. The annual Geminids shower is usually one of the most spectacular light shows of the year, but this time around, the vivid and nearly full moon is threatening to take center stage instead [link to www.space.com] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 12/13/2011 01:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | December's Geminid Meteor Shower Peaks Tonight Quoting: NiNzrez The Geminid meteor shower peaks tonight (Dec. 13), but interested skywatchers might have to battle chilly temperatures and bright moonlight. The annual Geminids shower is usually one of the most spectacular light shows of the year, but this time around, the vivid and nearly full moon is threatening to take center stage instead [link to www.space.com] Holy shit.... NINZrez!!!!! :solarwatch: I cant find words how i missed ya!!!! Plz dont go yeehaw |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 7057198 United States 12/13/2011 01:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Vesper33 User ID: 5245441 United States 12/13/2011 01:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hell, I think we all have went through NiNzrez withdrawals. Lol. Good to see you back today! Perfer et Obdura;Dolor hic tibi proderit olim.Fortes Fortuna Iuvat! (Be Patient & Strong; someday this pain will be useful to you. Fortune favors the brave) |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 7057198 United States 12/13/2011 01:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hello, NINzrez! I hope you're ready for an eventful week. Comet Lovejoy has brightened considerably and is now visible on both STEREO A & B HI1 imager. A: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] B: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 7057198 United States 12/13/2011 01:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Lockheed/Solarsoft geniuses goof up again. The filament eruption which produced the latest CME also produced a "channel flare" which the eggheads wrongly attribute to active region 1367. I think they also missed the main event in their posted visuals. In the first clip you can see the filament begin to stir. In the second clip we see the final stage of filament and the resulting channel flare. Note that there is no flare from 1367 whatsoever. Trust but verify, LOL. [link to sdowww.lmsal.com] [link to sdowww.lmsal.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 12/13/2011 03:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yep, the flare peaks at 08:00z Another Update: Three small C1 class solar flares have taken place today all from region 1367 2011/12/13 07:46:00 08:07:00 08:00:00 C1.4 S18W78 ( 1367 ) 2011/12/13 14:11:00 14:17:00 14:14:00 C1.1 S19W89 ( 1367 ) 2011/12/13 15:02:00 15:32:00 15:16:00 B7.3 S18W89 ( 1367 ) 2011/12/13 16:04:00 16:32:00 16:21:00 C1.2 S18W89 ( 1367 ) [link to www.lmsal.com] Region 1374 as remained quiet today despite the Beta Gamma within the region. Image from the SDO shows the C1 solar flare (lower right) peaking at 0800z :CflaresDec13: and SDO AIA 304 :FlareSDO: CloseUP Filament eruption and Flare [link to helioviewer.org] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 5263313 United States 12/13/2011 06:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 7073260 United States 12/13/2011 06:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Finally some rumbling in the X-ray flux--looks like a small chain of C-flares. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Peaked at C4.8--the strongest flare in a week or more. Maybe the sun's sensing that comet's approach. We may have flaring from more than one region here. The "new" active region in the northeast (which NOAA's been too lazy to number thus far-let's call it 1376/77) seems to be the source of some activity. Possible flare also from 1374 in the south. [link to halpha.nso.edu] The sun may be waking up to have Comet Lovejoy for breakfast. Will check out possible filament action soon. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 12/13/2011 06:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Finally some rumbling in the X-ray flux--looks like a small chain of C-flares. Quoting: Hugh M Eye [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Peaked at C4.8--the strongest flare in a week or more. Maybe the sun's sensing that comet's approach. We may have flaring from more than one region here. The "new" active region in the northeast (which NOAA's been too lazy to number thus far-let's call it 1376/77) seems to be the source of some activity. Possible flare also from 1374 in the south. [link to halpha.nso.edu] The sun may be waking up to have Comet Lovejoy for breakfast. Will check out possible filament action soon. hehe, nice hugh Yep, dont know why they are so lazy this time...maybe they are not sure if this new region north/east is one or more spots...^^ they should ask us Latest C4.8 Flare Region 1367 :c4flare: |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 7074329 United States 12/13/2011 07:08 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Finally some rumbling in the X-ray flux--looks like a small chain of C-flares. Quoting: Hugh M Eye [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Peaked at C4.8--the strongest flare in a week or more. Maybe the sun's sensing that comet's approach. We may have flaring from more than one region here. The "new" active region in the northeast (which NOAA's been too lazy to number thus far-let's call it 1376/77) seems to be the source of some activity. Possible flare also from 1374 in the south. [link to halpha.nso.edu] The sun may be waking up to have Comet Lovejoy for breakfast. Will check out possible filament action soon. hehe, nice hugh Yep, dont know why they are so lazy this time...maybe they are not sure if this new region north/east is one or more spots...^^ they should ask us Latest C4.8 Flare Region 1367 :c4flare: Thanks, dude, I was just going to post a correction. the peak flare was definitely 1367 (suddenly active at 90 degrees angle from Earth)-the new region is flaring at lower levels. No filament activity found. [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to halpha.nso.edu] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 12/13/2011 07:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hello, NINzrez! I hope you're ready for an eventful week. Quoting: Hugh M Eye Comet Lovejoy has brightened considerably and is now visible on both STEREO A & B HI1 imager. A: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] B: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] early Geminid fireball recorded on Dec. 11th by a NASA meteor network camera in Tennessee [link to science.nasa.gov] The 2011 Geminid Meteor Shower Dec. 13, 2011: The 2011 Geminid meteor shower peaks on the night of Dec. 13-14, and despite the glare of a nearly-full Moon, it might be a good show. [link to science.nasa.gov] |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 7074329 United States 12/13/2011 08:15 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | A strong CME could cause a tail separation event. Comet is still out of view for SOHO LASCO Cor 3. Does anyone know when it's expected on SOHO? Comet Lovejoy updates can be found here- [link to sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 12/13/2011 08:31 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Comet Lovejoy seems like it's being fired upon by solar proton beams in this STEREO A image. Quoting: Hugh M Eye :lovejoy: A strong CME could cause a tail separation event. Comet is still out of view for SOHO LASCO Cor 3. Does anyone know when it's expected on SOHO? Comet Lovejoy updates can be found here- [link to sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil] hey is this lovejoy or a other sundiving comet? [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] also on c3 [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 12/13/2011 08:45 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
RTS REDUX User ID: 1388392 United States 12/13/2011 09:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Comet Lovejoy seems like it's being fired upon by solar proton beams in this STEREO A image. Quoting: Hugh M Eye A strong CME could cause a tail separation event. Comet is still out of view for SOHO LASCO Cor 3. Does anyone know when it's expected on SOHO? Comet Lovejoy updates can be found here- [link to sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil] hey is this lovejoy or a other sundiving comet? [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] also on c3 [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] I think it must be something else..Lovejoy is supposed to be entering the Lasco C3 field of view anytime now and the COR-2 A & B fields of view early on Dec 15 (UT time) Dec 5th update [link to sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil] if I'm not mistaken it should be very bright on Lasco C3 and entering from the bottom right of the image here's the twitter feed for Sungrazers [link to twitter.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1297814 Germany 12/13/2011 09:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Comet Lovejoy seems like it's being fired upon by solar proton beams in this STEREO A image. Quoting: Hugh M Eye :lovejoy: A strong CME could cause a tail separation event. Comet is still out of view for SOHO LASCO Cor 3. Does anyone know when it's expected on SOHO? Comet Lovejoy updates can be found here- [link to sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil] hey is this lovejoy or a other sundiving comet? [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] also on c3 [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] I think it must be something else..Lovejoy is supposed to be entering the Lasco C3 field of view anytime now and the COR-2 A & B fields of view early on Dec 15 (UT time) Dec 5th update [link to sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil] if I'm not mistaken it should be very bright on Lasco C3 and entering from the bottom right of the image here's the twitter feed for Sungrazers [link to twitter.com] omg, yep thx |