SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

I found some evidence that the B9 flare from 1376 did eject some material. IMO this would definitely be earth-directed. Region 1376 has produced 10 out of the last 11 flares recorded by Solarsoft. The last three have C-flares today. I believe the other noted events contributed to the CME or produced simultaneous CME(s). here's the SDO/Solarsoft movie of the B9.8 and you can see some ejecta.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

This CME looks like a fast-mover headed straight for Earth. It's already visible in the STEREO A HI 1 imager. Of course info is hard to come by. The sun's picked a good time to act up; NASA's busy celebrating their "birthday comet" and getting drunk at their Druidic solstice rituals (same goes for ESA). Great time for the sun to toast a few satellites and make the eggheads look like incompetent fools, LOL.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Maybe the sun's taking a parting shot at Lovejoy (comet is still in the kill-zone).
There's another slow-building C-flare in progress now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

any estimate of days for arrival hugh

feels like the 22nd

Thanks Hugh. For all you do too!

Hey there aether.



Z

I have no method of calculation for this-I usually rely on the "experts" and their supercomputers. There's huge gaps in available data from SOHO, SECCHI, SIDC, etc. All of the CME models rely on timely data and CACTUS hasn't updated at all today. Kudos to the SEEDS project at George Mason University-at least they try to do real-time analysis. But they also need the raw data to go on. SOHO dropped out right in the beginning of this event for 8 hours and they have yet to fill in the missing gaps. STEREO A is the only sensor to get realtime images-I just pieced together other clues from STEREO B and SDO.
It's a lot of guesswork really. I would keep an eye on the STEREO HI2 images for more clues tomorow. Hopefully the chimps will sober up long enough to get us some better models to work with....but late on the 22nd or early 23rd is as good a guess as any. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty confident that this will be geo-effective. How strong or how weak I can't say.

STEREO A Cor2 difference movie:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Maybe a Christmas in the dark...

All transformers blow up, and no more Christmas lights...

thank you hugh

Yesterday's drafty solar wind courtesy of Cave News channel:

Time to break out the Faradays?

Wow thanks Hugh.

Hi, Finley, Shenuee, aether, Zack, AC's and everyone else!

We just had a C6.2 from 1376--that's 4 straight C-flares and a B9.8 w/ CME today. This region is blooming like a mushroom. Here's what it looked like on Sunday Dec. 18th (note:the lower spot is 1377):
:1376then:

This is what 1376 looks like now-56 hours later:
:1376now:

Just scroll down the Solarsoft flare list and you can see the strength of these flares growing--we may see an M-flare soon.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 12/20/2011 06:08 PM

Looks like an M flare is a coming to me too. Also thanks for the info on the cme. Tell if you find out if for sure earth directed. I will check on this end too.

Hi Hugh...Thanks for the information! Always!

SOHO finally filled in their data gaps (after an 18 hour wait!) and I don't see anything to be too worried about. It's been so long since a CME came straight at us I forget what it looks like,haha. SOHO images were used to make this SEEDS movie...when y'all see it you can tell me what's going on. I'm getting a headache, LOL.

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Another C1.5 just now. Look at this magnetic field diagram--I've never seen an active region's field lines so far out. I think 1376 is just getting warmed up.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

thank you very much hugh

Great posts today Hugh! I really appreciate it!

Last Edited by old guard on 12/20/2011 08:35 PM

Howdy, old guard! Another C3.1-this time it the large southern region 1382. This region is directly facing Earth for the next few days and it's big enough to cause some strong flares.

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

Solarsoft has it as 1384, but I think they're mistaken. The last flare had a double-peak so maybe they were both flaring at once. 1384 is the new region on the eastern limb and it's also quite large. This makes 8 or 9 C-flares in the last 14 hours--things are definitely perking up.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Still no CME alerts or Cygnet models so maybe I over-reacted in my earnest search for more doom, LOL. Now there's no updated images from STEREO A, B, or SOHO; so any new CMEs must be tracked by sticking your head out the window, hehe. NASA's on solstice holiday chimp-mode.

More on the last flare....I mistakenly posted an updating EVE x-ray link above; so here's my proof for the C3.1 being from 1382:
:eve1382:
....case closed. Take that, Lockheed! Also, the GONG network loop shows the 1382 flare and another flare from 1384 as I suspected. Take note of the sparks flying just beyond the northeast limb. Soon we'll have another "hot" region coming over the limb.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

In this SDO 171 image 1384 is at the bottom and behind it lies the new region just over the edge.
:new1221:

Another C-flare from 1382....C4.3. Lockheed/Solarsoft got this one right.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Wow, Solar Monitor, Dublin is down-just says "NO DATA" for every category.WTF?
[link to www.solarmonitor.org]

STEREO A is back up and shows a large far-side CME.
:cme1221:

We need a huge earth directed CME before it is too late.

NOAA's flare predictions for Dec. 21,2011.

:Whole_Disk_Flare_Prob:
Class_M 5 5 5
Class_X 1 1 1
Proton 1 1 1
#
# Region Flare Probabilities for 2011 Dec 21
# Region Class C M X P
:Reg_Prob: 2011 Dec 20
1374 5 1 1 1
1375 0 0 0 0
1376 60 5 1 1
1377 5 1 1 1
1380 15 1 1 1
1381 25 5 1 1
1382 60 5 1 1
1383 5 1 1 1
1384 30 5 1 1
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Hi all,

had some christmas party last days


:SunTodayDec21:
SDO AIA 304 Helioviewer Fulldisc:
[link to helioviewer.org]



SunspotUpdate:

Region 1375 and 1379 disappeared yesterday while region 1384 rotated over the north-east limb


Regions 1376, 1382 and 1384 all produced C class solar flares during the last 24 hours
[link to www.lmsal.com]


:region1384Dec21:
Image from SDO shows you region 1384

This Vid from Helioviewer SDO AIA 304 shows you a closeUp from Region 1384
[link to helioviewer.org]




Comet Lovejoy (2011 W3) rising over Western Australia


Had a beautiful view of the comet this morning. I took this sequence to try to capture the changing face of the comet as twilight progressed just wooohooo......:
[link to vimeo.com]

Thanks for all you do :) Been lurking :hf:

IWTB,
I can't do utubes, but your still shots are beautiful! I have been thinking you were in Germany....these are in Australia.
Did you feel the quake off Kermandec today?

Hi Ozark,



i am from and in germany...:D

Sry, maybe it was not clear....i only posted the link from this guy...SRY


Comet Lovejoy (2011 W3) rising over Western Australia
by Colin Legg
[link to vimeo.com]



Beautiful night in the Big Apple with Auroras to the North
[link to plus.google.com]





Winter Solstice – The Shortest day of the Year

:stonehengedec21:

Depending on how the calendar falls, the December solstice occurs annually on a day between December 20 and 23. This year, the December solstice will occur at 05:30 UTC (12:30 a.m. EST) on December 22, 2011. While the southern hemisphere is experiencing the long days of summer, the northern hemisphere will have the “winter solstice” – often called the shortest day of the year.

Conversely, six months ago the northern hemisphere experienced the longest day with the summer solstice, with the southern hemisphere having their winter solstice. This is part of a never ending cycle and is at the heart of our seasons...


:xraysdec21:

If you live near the equator, you won’t notice much difference in the amount of sunlight you receive throughout the year. The biggest noticeable difference is at the poles, where each solstice brings an extreme in the hours of sunlight you receive; in summer the Sun never properly sets for weeks, and in winter never rises, creating the most inhospitable environments on earth.

I always find the solstices to be magical times of year and look forward to either the longest or shortest days as they are the bringers of seasons, darkness and light...

ReadMore:
[link to www.universetoday.com]

Hello, IWTB! I guess that party was an all-nighter, eh? I'm envious, lol. I used to work for Germans (Steiner-Optik, USA) and they sure know how to throw a Christmas patry, hehe.

Looks like the sun is spitting out many flares again.
:xrays:

WOW! 1376 seems to have doubled in size again! We now have 3 Earth-facing regions capable of M-flares or maybe stronger.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Ah wow, sounds good hehe




New pics of comet Lovejoy taken in Australia:
[link to users.tpg.com.au]


:cometlovejoyaust:
Enlarge:
[link to s3.amazonaws.com]


More Pics:
[link to universetoday.tumblr.com]

Nice to hear from you IWTB. Great solstice pic. Breathing eassy, Bless You all.

Hi Finley! Nice too see ya