SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

You can SEE the PROTON STORM from this eruption on the SOHO images. It looks like a blizzard from an angry sun.

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Goodnight all.

Thanks for the post OG

Thank you. haha

Just So TG,
Um, Just Stopped By For A Moment At SW
They Quote Goddard SC As That The Wavefront Of The CME
Has A 2200 Km/s Ejection Velocity...Anybody Else Hear That?
Folks, That Awfully Fast....

Couldn't sleep until I checked STEREO.

OMG, this one is a real doozie!

STEREO A image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO B movie:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

OUCH!

In my chickenscratch math I figured around 1,367 m/s, at 93,000,000m thats 18.9 hours to cross the earth/sun divide.

I suck at math though

i just updated the blog before bed
as we thought, these CMEs ARE earth directed!
comfirmed by goodard

ALMOST-X FLARE AND CME:
This morning, Jan. 23rd around 0359 UT, big sunspot 1402 erupted, producing a long-duration M9-class solar flare. The explosion's M9-ranking puts it on the threshold of being an X-flare, the most powerful kind. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the flare's extreme ultraviolet flash:

The Solar and Heliosphere Observatory (SOHO) and the STEREO-Behind spacecraft have both detected a CME rapidly emerging from the blast site. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab estimate a velocity of 2200 km. There is little doubt that the cloud is heading in the general direction of Earth. A preliminary inspection of SOHO/STEREO imagery suggests that the CME will deliver a strong glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 24-25 as it sails mostly north of our planet.

tons of updates on the blog post for this
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

goodnight everyone
i have the flu so need some rest
xo

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/23/2012 01:51 AM

Got The Same Here Starwind,
Something From My Memory Says That The Transit
Time During The Carrington Event Was On The Order
Of ~ 14 Or 17 Hours...I Can't Quite Remember
Off-Hand. Gee, Why Do I Suddenly Feel NERVOUS?

Maybe because we've suffered a 24 hour straight hit on our magnetosphere with a CME set to hit in <18 hours

How long does it take the magnetosphere to recover from hits, especially one as severe as what we've seen in the last day?

yes! glad someone else noticed that speed!
so everyone know, the CME that we saw arrive today had a speed of 1100Km/s and reached earth in 2 days 16hrs

Tonights CMEs are moving at 2X that speed!
FAST!
if you use the math compaired to todays CME arrival, would that make this one arriving in 1 day 8hrs?
they say the arrical is expected jan 24-25

this CME event that just happened was on the 23rd @ 03:59 utc
so there saying yes, it could be here in just over 1 day
ill try to do the math tomorrow when i dont have flu meds in me and can think a bit more straight
event occured at 03:59 utc Jan 23rd
add 1 day 8hrs
im coming up with 32hrs
1 day, 8hrs
arrival Jan 24th @ 12:00 utc

anyone else?!?!

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/23/2012 02:01 AM

Got It...11:18 AM 1 September 1859 Aurora's "Erupting"
Earthwide... "The Following Morning...", Presuming That
Carrington's Location In England Is The Central Time-Locus
Used Here Then The 17 Hour Figure Would Be Sensible...
And Hence SCARY Here.

That is really fast, should produce quite an IP shock.

2200km is 1367.02 miles.

93,000,000 miles / 1367.02 miles = 68031.19193574344

Since those figures are in the seconds that would mean the units going into the total are seconds, so divide that by 60 to get minutes (60 seconds in a minute)

68031.19193574344 = 1133.853198929057

Divide that by 60 to get hours

18.89755331548429

Wolfram alpha says traveling at 1,367 miles a second it would take something 18 hours 53 minutes 52 seconds to travel 93,000,000 miles

[link to www.wolframalpha.com]


I am math retarded though so if thats wrong don't kill me

Our "footpoint" location was very near the flare location today, so we have great connectivity. This is partially responsible for the SEP event that is in progress.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Look at UMA Proton flux forcast, and play the cygnet.

So a rough 19 hours, with 3 hours and change already over with?

So a rough estimate is tomorrow around 6/6:30 EST? That seems a little soon.

I think thats wrong, i hate math.

Last Edited by Starwind on 01/23/2012 02:20 AM

Thanks Starwind,
My Math Isn't As Fast As Usual (Or Possibly As
Accurate As Usual Either) Our Figures Are Consistent.
Was Actually Thinking About This Night Before Last,
Got The Following:

With A Sun/Earth AVERAGE Distance (Per Wiki) of
92.956 x 10(6) Miles Then After Appropriate Conversions

500 Km/s >> ~83 Hrs Transit
1000 Km/s >> ~41 Hrs "
1500 Km/s >> ~28 " "
2000 Km/s >> ~21 " "
2500 Km/s >> ~17 " "
3500 Km/s >> ~12 " "


Incidentally, I Apologize To All For Simply Jumping A'board
And Monopolizing The Blog...I Just Happened To Be Going Through
The Entirety Of EXACTLY This Prior To THIS Event. Again Apologies.

Yeah, so assuming the wave is traveling 2200km/s that means we are set to be hit in about... 15 1/2 hours from this post.

That doesn't sound like a good thing.

Actually that sounds correct. The CME may not keep traveling at the same speed though. There are magnetic forces that influence its speed, but it will still be arriving very quickly.

Noneed to appologize, you are more than welcome to come right on in and post away. :)

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX2
Serial Number: 47
Issue Time: 2012 Jan 23 0644 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Jan 23 0630 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE High Energy Protons are finally starting to fall back down.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Vielen Danke Herr TomasGod,
...Confuscius Say "When On New Turf, Best To
Apologize First Than Get Shot Later...."

The global Xray flux has lots of RED now.
Can someone post an image of it?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
11 Red attenuation bars maxed out and counting.



Last Edited by joinca on 01/23/2012 03:04 AM

NASA Goddard has issued the predicted arrival and duration for this latest CME as follows.

Event Issue Date: 2012-01-23 06:26:50.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-01-24 14:18:19.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 7 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.6 Re


Tue, 24 Jan 2012 14:18:19 UTC
Tue, 24 Jan 2012 22:18:19 UTC

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Time conversion = Tue, 24 Jan 2012 9:18AM EST
through Tue, 24 Jan 2012 5:19PM EST
+ or - 6 hrs.

Here ya go. It may take a while before it shows up.

ACE HE Protons on the rise again..

Looks like a S3 Solar Radiation Storm for us.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 01/23/2012 03:16 AM

Thanks Tomas!! It is late here on the west coast.
sleep time


Last Edited by joinca on 01/23/2012 03:16 AM

You are welcome! It is late hear too central time, but I am wrestless.

Hey, have you ever felt much better at outdoor when proton is extremely high(above 100)?
As if it energizes and relaxes us?
Just a thought.

How long does it take for the magnetosphere to recover from a strong hit?

I'm curious how that fast CME will effect us, but I don't know if the hit we got today will last that long. How long do they usually last and what specific measure is it that makes the dual hit so bad? (Carrington)