SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

whats up with the ACE data?

[link to www.bigupload.com]

density and speed completely flat for 6 hours???
busted sensors or what: that's too calm

HAARP offline for others too?

Proton flux rising more! [link to www.n3kl.org]

some info

It's also on our Blog:

SDO Website is down

Due to work on the building at Goddard, the power to the room containing our website computer has been turned off. It will be turned on at noon today (or later.) Data continues to flow to the JSOC and EVE SOC.
[link to sdoisgo.blogspot.com]

this might be worth sharing:

"IMF Bz

The IMF is a vector quantity with three directional components, two of which (Bx and By) are oriented parallel to the ecliptic. The third component--Bz--is perpendicular to the ecliptic and is created by waves and other disturbances in the solar wind. When the IMF and geomagnetic field lines are oriented opposite or "antiparallel" to each other, they can "merge" or "reconnect," resulting in the transfer of energy, mass, and momentum from the solar wind flow to magnetosphere The strongest coupling --with the most dramatic magnetospheric effects-- occurs when the Bz component is oriented southward."


from: [link to pluto.space.swri.edu]

Good Morning, SunBro! I thought their servers crashed; STEREO, SOHO, SDO are all down. Maybe NASA's moving their stuff to the bunkers, LOL. Antway, here's a link to SOHO's European page--it's acting slow though.

[link to sohowww.estec.esa.nl]

SOHO proton storm image Cor2:

[link to soho.esac.esa.int]

CACTus CME movie (note the max velocity=2012 !)

# CME | t0 | dt0| pa | da | v | dv | minv| maxv| halo?
0034|2012/01/23 04:12| 01 | 144| 360| 1781| 0410| 0890| 2012| IV

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

Oh my, look at the GOES Proton Flux graph:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

haha, yep thought that too^^

stereo was a bit longer avaible..






[link to www.youtube.com]

SOHO Gif movie 1/19-1/23/2012:

[link to soho.esac.esa.int]

SIDC Latest Bulletin:


SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Jan 2012, 1234UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 23 Jan 2012 until 25 Jan 2012)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 028
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 139 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be eruptive with risks of M
flares from NOAA AR 1402 and possibly from AR 1401. A M8.3 flare
occurred on Jan. 23, in NOAA AR1402, peaking at 0359UT. It triggered a
proton event (reaching about 50 pfu at >50Mev, at the time of this
message). A halo CME was observed by the coronagraphs on board SOHO and
STEREO. It was a fast event (about 1400 km/s as observed by COR2B), and
it is potentially geoeffective, due to its wide latitudinal extension.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach minor storm levels by mid Jan.
24 due to the arrival of the halo CME of today. During the past 24
hours, minor storm conditions were observed at planetary levels due to
the arrival of the CME of Jan. 19th.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

and here's 18 hours of ACE data:

[link to www.bigupload.com]

from 22.00 yesterday to 16.00 today UTC

still can't figure that flat lining on the density and speed...

why no mention of the coronal hole?
aren't these high energy protons mostly coming from that? or do coronal holes just cause an increase in solar wind speeds?

Good one! Thank's!

good one

The large recurrent coronal hole (CH496) in the southern hemisphere is about to rotate into an Earth facing position (January 24-26)

There was also a small coronal hole (CH497)in Earth facing position on January 22

And of course (CH495) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on January 20

I dont know why some sources do not add it...

But I do know it will not necessarily improve this ongoing events




Stunning Auroras From Around the World (January 22-23, 2012)
[link to www.universetoday.com]

I think your seeing the normal calm after the 24-hour magnetic storm. It won't stay calm for long though.

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Here's an alternate link for STEREO images:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

I find it ironic that the biggest event in 7 years and NASA Goddard has their computers unplugged. Ugh.

Here's a movie of the Proton Storm from Nov. 2000 as seen by SOHO cor 2:

[link to sohowww.estec.esa.nl]

All Soho obs are down now, its 4:50 UTC now and those are hours old.

Maybe like the tide going out before a tsunami hits?

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

The "spaghetti" chart of the magnetic field is looking pretty disrupted. Will the CME that is on it's way be here AFTER the field recovers?

This is what it does when it isn`t getting much pressure..as the winds increase it will spread back out...

Thank you!

wow thats quick!
thanks everyone for the stab at the math on this
i don't know anyone who likes math haha

a rough 18hr after time of ejection that was at about 04:00, would place the CME arrival time around 22:00 UTC TONIGHT?

Russian magnetometer still online tho:

[link to forecast.izmiran.rssi.ru]

ok, this is closer to the 1st math i did on this
i came up with Jan 24th @ around 12:00 UTC for arrival

Yup, you would think a government operation would have generator backup power as required in ALL government information services.

also, the carrington event happened because there was a previous CME the hit earth and made the magnetosphere weak
This is why the main CME that caused the carrington event caused so much damage
not fear mongering
just stating facts so we have them all

yes

also, the carrington event happened because there was a previous CME the hit earth and made the magnetosphere weak
This is why the main CME that caused the carrington event caused so much damage
not fear mongering
just stating facts so we have them all


How can we determine how weak the magnetosphere is going to be at the time that this new CME hits? Will it still be weakened from the latest CME? I can do my own research, just not sure where the best info would be. ty!

Red hot Xray Flux attenuation - 19 maxed out red bars now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]



Last Edited by joinca on 01/23/2012 03:34 PM

Just found this update on the NOAA space weather page.



2012-01-23 15:01 Geomagnetic Storm Expected Tuesday, Jan 23

As the strongest Solar Radiation Storm (S3) since May, 2005 continues, the associated Earthward-directed Coronal Mass Ejection is expected to arrive about 1400 UT (9am EST) Jan 24. SWPC has issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch with G2 level storming likely and G3 level storming possible, with the storm continuing into Wednesday, Jan 25. All of this activity is related to a moderate (R2) Radio Blackout x-ray flare that erupted Sunday night (11pm EST). Updates will be posted here as we learn more or follow us on Facebook.

the effects of the Jan 19th CME lasted for 24hrs!

It was a very large CME that arrived
we doccumented the effects of the Jan 19th CME arrival on our blog, where you can see how strong it was
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

CME IMPACT: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field at 06:17 UT on Jan. 22nd.
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

we can see by looking at the nict that at around 06:00 Jan 23rd (today), we see the very last of the Jan 19th CME
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

depending on the math you accept on todays CME, it will arrive anywhere from 16hrs to 30hrs after the last of the Jan 19th CME leaves Earths magnetosphere
that does not give our magnetosphere much time to recuperate from CME effects

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/23/2012 12:32 PM

not exactly sure "weak" is the best adjective here...

think in terms of transformers coming into resonance: there is no 'weak' or 'strong' : simply interaction. Obviously, rapid variations in Gaia's geofield could cause large ground based currents wrecking possible havoc on human electronic fabrications..

but 'damage' to our field, i don't think is the place to focus, tho i will say that She sure has had her 'bell' rung .

tuned perhaps?


observe without fear