SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

question
why does their title state its expected Jan 23rd
but the body of their post says Jan 24th
?

I don't know enough to know why it says that, but I know that there are geomagnetic storms expected of some level or another up until the 26th...

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

spot on

hi everyone

interesting huh nin

i`ve got quakes on my mind from others awareness , not my own

Flashback to 2009: NASA 2012 Solar Doom Warning!



[link to www.youtube.com]

And there are several more. Here's one from History Channel:

[link to www.youtube.com]


Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/23/2012 12:40 PM

NOAA has extended/re-issued Proton Alert for particles in excess of 100 million electron -Volts. These are extremely energetic particles.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPC0
Serial Number: 49
Issue Time: 2012 Jan 23 1633 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 48
Valid From: 2012 Jan 23 0449 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Jan 23 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Proton flux:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE 3-day EPAM plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

here's a composite image of the last 7 days of Russian magnetometer data:

[link to www.bigupload.com]

i offer this as a metric to measure the coming geofield perturbations with: the last disturbance (shown clearly on this data) gives us a 'scale' to measure the coming one with.

popcorn.jpg

hiya aether :)
thanks, were watching those close as well
sure is starting to feel like were back in March 2011

The Chinese New Year certainly started with a bang this morning. At approx. 04:00 UT a strong and long duration M8.7-class solar flare exploded from Active Region 1402.




[link to www.youtube.com]



:sundragon:

+/- time figures in (I would say)

or in other words..they have no clue...or maybe they wanna show us they have no clue

hahaha!

The Jan. 22nd CME also disturbed Earth's ionosphere. In Atlanta, Georgia, radio engineer Pieter Ibelings monitored a 4.5 MHz CODAR (coastal radar) signal as it bounced off layers of ionization along the US east coast. "The moment of impact can be clearly seen on the CODAR radar plot," he points out:

[link to spaceweather.com]

woah! dragon awesomeness.

Ha,ha ya beat me to it. Great job! Anyway here's the link to the SDO close-up movie in case anyone wants to scroll through it frame by frame. This was an awesome far-reaching event....huge.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

SDO is back up now. It seems 1401 has diminished but 1402 is still looking X-ish. A small spot has come over in the southeast.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

imma guess that first sign will be a Bz flip on ACE data...

;D

gotta b a shock wave that precedes the main mass...

6.2 2012/01/23 16:04:54 -36.415 -73.015 29.7 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

yes, it will be a sure sign
i would suggest watching from 22:00 tonight on
thats in about 3-4 hrs on

here is the link to ACE for anyone else who wants to know where to watch
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
the 1&5 min list is on the left hand side

we will see this on the nict as the top left image, curling up into a ball
it curls up in the image when the Bz takes a north (+) direction
This is what usually happens right before a CME arrival
(but not always)
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/23/2012 01:49 PM

Saw that---originally was a 5.8 and then they actually upgraded it...

The magnetosphere has had an orange/red front end to it.

I saw earlier you posted to the effect that we wouldn't have much time for our magnetosphere to recover from the 24 hour blast of pressure we hit yesterday.

Is this sustained pressure going to be a variable to be worried about when this new CME hits us or have we had time to recover from the worst of it?

I noticed most of 24 hours yesterday we were under white pressure on the magnetosphere, but since then it hasn't left the yellow/red on the front edge so technically we've been under pressure of some kind for 36 hours now but 24 hours was the worst of the CME.

absolutely no idea what this means, but i find it curious that cosmic ray counts have plummeted in the last coupla days:

[link to www.bigupload.com]


i guess just something to remember for next time?

I can't open this link... do you know another one with the same info? Thank's a lot!

It's known as a "Forbush Decrease". Strong solar winds and especially CMEs supress the amount of cosmic rays reaching Earth. However strong spikes are sometimes seen in the neutron monitors due to solar energetic particles reaching the ground (known as GLE's or Ground Level Enhancement). Interesting chart here:

[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]

Largest GLE measured in 2005:

[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]

More on Cosmic Rays;

[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]

It kinda makes me wonder if it wouldn`t speed up the CME--not really speed up, but clear a path of lesser resistance letting it get here before the expected time..I`m sure all that energy flowing from yesterdays CME hasn`t disapated..the flow should still be pulling towards us like a vaccum..course I`m no expert but it just makes sense on a large scale event like this...

This chart:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

When is it expected to go back to normal?

never

[link to www.gdgps.net]

google " noaa ace

on the site menu that google shows, click on " ACE Dynamic Plots

Amazing! To give you an idea of how powerful that CME was, it appeared as a FULL HALO event at STEREO Behind on the other side of the sun. Oops, duh, of course it would, wouldn't it? I must be suffering the first winter case of sun-stoke, LOL.

SEEDS CME movie from STEREO B:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

SEEDS SOHO Cor 2 view:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]