SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Earth directed?

Possibly geo-effective, though it's too soon to be sure. Yet another large filament has lifted off in the northeast solar quadrant.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

STEREO Ahead movie:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Behind image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

There's a very good chance that this last CME will be geo-effective. The filament eruption was Earth-facing and produced a very long two-ribbon flare seen in the SDO images taken approximately 30 mins. apart.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Ahead image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Behind image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I guess we start looking for hit predictions then.

Also 1416 has been developing nicely.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

getting meaner looking as it points at us.

Thanks, Starwind, I was just thinking the same thing. Region 1416 is one of the fastest-growing sunspot groups I've seen. It's produced a steady drumbeat of B-flares; but as it turns facing Earth for the next 4-5 days, I think we'll soon see some more powerful flares.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Also, the remnants of 1401 & X-Boy 1402 are due back any time now.

I still think it's odd that we don't have more sunspots.

1402 is still going? I remember reading if it made a complete transit that would make it an odd sunspot as they don't typically last that long.

Isn't that the one that gave us the square hit last month?

1402 is still going?

1402 gave us the M8, the X1, and the two proton storms. We should see what's left of it in the next day or two. Although it looks decreased, it can be seen as the white area near 90 degrees east in this Heliographic map.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 02/10/2012 10:05 PM

just saw that
wow have to look into this one
we also have a filament eruption in the northern region of the sun

NASA model shows CME hitting Earth (somewhat off-center) late on the 13th.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

SEEDS movie of partial halo Earthbound CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

:cme2/10:

Jan27-Feb17 Mercury -1.5 mag right to left

whos declaring it earthbound?
looking over SDO it looks to have ejected far northward
might see a slight glancing blow, but i would not say much

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 02/10/2012 10:45 PM

yes we will see the return of old sunspots 1401 and 1402 starting around sunday
they still look like there going strong
will be an interesting solar week coming up
get your rest everyone! ^^

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 02/10/2012 10:55 PM

Hi Ya Nin....watching and waiting for the big show.... hope its painless

you and me both Gabe
i will always do my best to give heads up on any major event i see :)
hope your doing well!

Sunspot 1416 right now
52% chance for M flare
41% chance for X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]


SUNSPOT OF INTEREST:
For the second day in a row, sunspot AR1416 has doubled in size: movie. Moreover, it has developed a "beta-gamma" magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares.
Any such eruptions this weekend would be Earth directed as the sunspot turns to face our planet.

[link to spaceweather.com]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 02/10/2012 11:04 PM

Hello, NIN, ,I hope you're feeling better tonight.

SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 10 Feb 2012, 1237UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 10 Feb 2012 until 12 Feb 2012)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low, new NOAA AR 1416 (Catania 38) has
produced a series of B-class flares but is evolving fast and has
potential for more powerful events (up to the M level). There are two AR
rotating over the east limb which produced M-class flares during their
last transit.
:1416HMI:

Looks like ol' 1402 can be seen bubbling like a volcano on the northeast limb in a recent SDO image.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

This is beyond cool...

He's baaack! Five straight flares from the NE limb including a C7.9.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

[link to www.lmsal.com]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]



Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 02/11/2012 09:51 AM

CME ALERT ! Arrival expected on 13th or 14th (depending which model is correct). NOAA's Enlil Model shows an almost direct hit and a later ETA than the NASA Cygnet model.

NOAA Enlil:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA Cygnet:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

SIDC Daily report:

SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Feb 2012, 1236UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 11 Feb 2012 until 13 Feb 2012)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Feb 2012 10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Feb 2012 10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Feb 2012 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low, new AR 1417 produced a C7.9 flare
with peak at 10:04 UT. This AR can produce more C-class flares and it
has lower chances of M-class flares. NOAA AR 1416 (Catania 38) has
increased in size and turned into a beta gamma magnetic configuration,
it has potential for M-class flares. There were two halo CMEs yesterday.
The first one, first seen at 13:48 UT, originating from a filament
eruption in the northwest limb is most likely not going to be
geoeffective, although a shock from this CME may hit the Earth. The
second one (20:00 UT) started also from a long filament eruption,
located in the northern hemisphere. This CME is expected to arrive to
the Earth around February 13, its travel time was estimated to be around
500km/s. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet and expected to remain
so, unsettled levels (with possible isolated active periods) are
expected for tomorrow as the solar wind from a recurrent coronal hole
arrives to the Earth.
[link to sidc.oma.be]



Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 02/11/2012 11:05 AM

not back just yet ^^
the regions still lie over the limb
they should be popping over sometime tomorrow

Yes, I meant to point out SIDC has attributed the C7.9 to AR1417 in error. 1417 is the smaller sunspot group in the foreground, the flare originated beyond the limb. SDO close-up movie of C7.9 limb flare:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

New region (the artist formerly known as 1402) hasn't lost much in its two week rotation on the far side. Another large flare (C7.7) and a possible CME. Both of these C7+ events would surely be M-class if the region wasn't occulted just over the limb....fasten your seatbelts, kids.

Recent SDO images:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Movie of latest C7.7 flare:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

ENLIL tracking model for yesterday's CME.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

:Enlil2/14:

i just got a new blog post up
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Why do they renumber the sunspots when they come back around?

Msn states the sun is pointing a loaded gun at us (sunspots), they know somethings coming down the line

nice, new picture NINz

Region 1416 increased in size from 100 to 400 millionths and is now a DHI type group


:region1416feb122:
Image from SDO shows region 1416 in white light and a magnetogram colour
The green (weak) and blue (strong) is positive polarity and yellow (weak) and red (strong) is negative polarity







:sunfulldiscfeb11:
Nice shot from the Dutch Observatory Feb11