CME ALERT ! Arrival expected on 13th or 14th (depending which model is correct). NOAA's Enlil Model shows an almost direct hit and a later ETA than the NASA Cygnet model.

NOAA Enlil:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA Cygnet:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

SIDC Daily report:

SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Feb 2012, 1236UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 11 Feb 2012 until 13 Feb 2012)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Feb 2012 10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Feb 2012 10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Feb 2012 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low, new AR 1417 produced a C7.9 flare
with peak at 10:04 UT. This AR can produce more C-class flares and it
has lower chances of M-class flares. NOAA AR 1416 (Catania 38) has
increased in size and turned into a beta gamma magnetic configuration,
it has potential for M-class flares. There were two halo CMEs yesterday.
The first one, first seen at 13:48 UT, originating from a filament
eruption in the northwest limb is most likely not going to be
geoeffective, although a shock from this CME may hit the Earth. The
second one (20:00 UT) started also from a long filament eruption,
located in the northern hemisphere. This CME is expected to arrive to
the Earth around February 13, its travel time was estimated to be around
500km/s. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet and expected to remain
so, unsettled levels (with possible isolated active periods) are
expected for tomorrow as the solar wind from a recurrent coronal hole
arrives to the Earth.
[link to sidc.oma.be]