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Message Subject SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Poster Handle Hugh M Eye
Post Content
Look'n poster, you have always been very kind answering my questions and putting up with my ignorance, are we getting a solar wind without an ejection? again sorry
 Quoting: Palm


The CME from the 10th did not hit
it was not moving so slow that it took 5 days to arrive
the CME from the 10th was ejected in a FAR nothern direction and it did miss us
I believe this is from the southern Coronal Hole solar wind stream
i can not say it enough.. the coronal holes play a huge roll in the sun earth connection and are big ball players in this game
they are so often over looked and the flares and CME's get all the attention
but the coronal holes tell us a big story
i highly recomend to google and do a tad of research on coronal holes and you will quickly see why i say this ^^

NOAA had a predicted arrival date for the solar wind stream set for Feb 17-18, but they did have at 1st the Feb 16-17 for the arrival. I say they just kinda guess most of the time, probaly because there is still much to learn about Coronal Holes/
They are almost always wrong about the arrival times of the Coronal Hole wind streams

this coronal hole was very far south, so the winds from it, if they hit earth, would have a southward direction
this is why NOAA suspected it would be so far south that it may not hit earth.
if it did hit, being in such a southern location, the winds would tip the Bz south, causing an onset of a quick small geomagnetic storm
this is exactly what happened today

From Spaceweather"

on the 13th...
"Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole could reach Earth on Feb. 16-17"
[link to spaceweather.com]

on the 14th and 15th...
"Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole could reach Earth on Feb. 17-18. However, the solar wind stream is likely to sail south of our planet, making little impact. Credit: SDO/AIA.
[link to spaceweather.com]


here you can see this CH we are speaking of in the southern section of the sun :)
[link to spaceweather.com]

sorry i have not been around much this past week
just getting over this cold, and i got a bad sinus infection
my luck has been horrid when it comed to health issues
the whole right side of my head feels like its in a vice :/
its starting to get better now and im hoping i only have a few more days left before im back to normal
 Quoting: NiNzrez


With all due respect, NIN, I'm sticking with the late-arriving CME theory.

SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Feb 2012, 1254UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 15 Feb 2012 until 17 Feb 2012)

COMMENT: Solar flaring activity remains very low. C-flares are possible
in the coming days. Geomagnetic conditions have been at active levels
during the past hours due to the arrival of the CME observed on february
10.
The interplanetary magnetic field value is ~ 9nT with a strong
southward component. The solar wind speed is very low, around 380 km/s.
The local K index at Dourbes reached a maximal value of 4 between 3 and
6 UT this morning. Active geomagnetic conditions are still possible for
the rest of the day. [link to sidc.oma.be]

The NOAA forecast for the CME arrival was for Feb 14 @approx.06:00 (w/the customary +/- 6 hours window) and the first NOAA alert came on Feb.14 @21:00. Considering the last big CME was 10 hours late, I think you'll agree that the prediction models are far from perfect. I believe you correctly predicted that CME shock-front would pass north of the ecliptic missing Earth. However CMEs are very expansive, turbulent, and clumpy (one reason they're hard to assess); and I believe we missed the shock-front but still caught some of the expanding plasma indirectly. Of course, I (and SIDC) could be wrong.
I don't believe we saw any evidence of a coronal hole wind-stream in this instance. The main signature of a coronal hole is its very high velocity solar winds; which was not in evidence here.
[link to umtof.umd.edu]

If it's any consolation, Dr. Strong poo-poos both of our theories, LOL. He postulates the "current sheet" theory, but then backs off and says its a mystery and we'll probably never know. It's nice to know the experts are often baffled by the Sun's activity, too.
[link to www.youtube.com]

Things in real life rarely fit in the boxes we want to put them in....quite possibly all of the above factors are interacting in ways we've yet to comprehend.
 
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