SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

From this: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I'd say it's safe to say it's from the Southern Filament!

New Coronal Hole Created By Solar Tsunami
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

not on us directly
but on the sun, Yes
then, that on us, Yes

well done!

Wow....I wonder if anything like this has been seen by SDO before today?

The NOAA ENLIL CME model has been updated and shows at least a "glancing blow" late on Sunday.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

there is that one, and
im seeing that the filament on the southwest/south center area is only partly there now
it would appear that the majority of that filament broke loose and that is where the latest CME came from
im still waiting for more updated images to come to to make sure

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 02/24/2012 06:22 PM

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

That filament looks worse today (in my uninformed opinion)

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Or is SDO updating yet?

Excellent.

not updated yet ^^

hmmmmm...

RADIATION STORM HITS MARS ROVER:
En route to the red Planet, Mars rover Curiosity has experienced the strongest solar radiation storm since 2005. The rover is okay. Researchers say this is a normal part of Curiosity's job as 'stunt double' for human astronauts.
[link to spaceweather.com]

made a new thread for this one
Thread: Solar Radiation Storm Hits Mars Rover

It looks like this new southeastern channel eruption may be forming a tsunami of its own. It's almost impossible to see in still pics, but in the SDO movie display it's readily visible.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Make-ur-own-movies here:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

“Canyon of Fire” on Sun

The glowing walls of the canyon are formed in a process closely related to that of arcade loops, which appear after many solar flares. Stretching more than 400,000 km from end to end, the structure traces the original channel where the filament was suspended by magnetic forces above the stellar surface...
[link to thewatchers.adorraeli.com]

Scientists launch NASA rocket into aurora...


"The ionosphere, some 62 miles up, is one end of the guitar string and there's another structure over a thousand miles up in space that is the other end of the string. When it gets plucked by incoming energy we can get a fundamental frequency and other 'harmonics' along the background magnetic field sitting above the ionosphere," Lessard says.

The Alfven resonator is a narrow, confined area of space - a channel that is perhaps several hundreds of miles tall but only six miles wide. It is hypothesized that energy from the sun accelerates a beam of electrons producing aurora and also increasing the overall electrical conductivity within the channel. Understanding how the ionosphere participates in providing the downward current is a critical component of understanding magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling.

"The process turns on an auroral arc and then these waves develop on both sides of the resonator moving up and down. That's the theory and it appears to be valid, but there's never been any really good measurement of the process in action. That's what MICA is all about," Lessard says.

[link to www.spacedaily.com]

Most recent CME seen by SOHO:

Cor 2-
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
Cor 3-
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

NASA cygnet model shows a near miss around the 29th:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 25 Feb 2012, 1250UT

Solar flaring conditions are quiet and expected to remain quiet for the next 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet during the past 24 hours and are expected to remain quiet for the next 24 hours. The CME that erupted yesterday 24/2 around 4UT is expected to become geoeffective in the course of Monday 27/2 between 6 and 16 UT. The magnetic field is expexted to be oriented northward, we therefore expect only active geomagnetic conditions (K=4). Another CME was observed late on 24/2 around 20 UT. It is also related to a filament eruption, this time in the south-east. This CME is not expected to have big geomagnetic consequences since it is directed mostly southward and since it is very slow (350 km/s). A glancing blow is however possible, which may lead to unsetteled conditions late on 29/2.
[link to sidc.oma.be]


Watch latest SDO AIA 304 Full disc:
[link to helioviewer.org]

and a mix AIA 193/304
[link to helioviewer.org]


Close up south east limb--02/25/2012


[link to www.youtube.com]



--------------------------------------------------------


After reappearing yesterday region 1421 disappeared again. New region 1424 was numbered yesterday as a single spot HRX type group at 30 millionths in size


Here's a close up from the new active region which is about to rotate into view over the north-east limb


[link to www.youtube.com]

This CME may deliver a glancing medium blow to the Earth on Feb 26th, around 13:00 UTC .

Expected CME arrival ..

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Last Edited by Rain-Man on 02/25/2012 10:39 AM

The new WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction
[link to solarham.com]


Shows its for now a flanc impact yep


The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on February 25-26. The CME observed early on Feb.24 will likely reach Earth late on Feb.26 or early on Feb.27 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. The coronal hole (CH504) created by the filament eruption could lengthen the disturbance as a high speed stream is likely to be trailing the CME
[link to www.solen.info]

Thanks, SunBro! Looks like we have three different "guesstimates" for CME arrival spanning more than a 24-hr. period. Do ya think they use the dart-board method or maybe ask the maid to pick a number? hahaha.

We may see another filament-tsunami eruption soon. I'm detecting some movement on the western edge of that monster filament in the southern hemisphere. The SDO movies show it better, but here's the GONG H-alpha loop:
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

SDO pics:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Looks like the western one-third is getting ready to fly loose.

Indian Ocean under threat of really big quake today. TEC Ionospheric conditions are ripe in that region;

[link to www.ips.gov.au]

That's a level of 16 that I have never seen before.

How is on space weather.com ..

INCOMING CME: Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say a coronal mass ejection (CME) will hit Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 26th at 13:30 UT (+/- 7 hr). The impact could spark a G2-class geomagnetic storm.

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

Last Edited by Rain-Man on 02/25/2012 11:35 AM

i always love your gong images, hehe

They should ask here :)

Things behind the Sun:



Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 02/25/2012 11:58 AM

THEMIS Celebrates 5 Years of Watching Aurora and Space Weather- this article shows how our knowledge of the magnetosphere and solar influences is really still in its infancy.

"After the first two years, NASA extended the THEMIS mission, which went on to track other space weather processes as they travel near Earth. THEMIS discovered the critical importance of something called "dipolarization fronts," bursts of material and energy that collapse Earth's magnetic field at the beginning of a substorm.

These fronts are blobs of magnetized material, or plasma, with temperatures of one million degrees and speeds of one million miles per hour that race toward Earth. THEMIS satellites have observed them ramming into the near-Earth region, injecting hyper fast electrons - which can damage computer systems - into the region of space where geosynchronous satellites reside with their sensitive electronics.

Scientists have also compared THEMIS space and ground-based data to solve a long standing space mystery of what caused "pulsating" aurora, beautiful emission patterns in which the aurora appear to blink. The aurora's pulses corresponded perfectly to something much higher in space called "chorus waves," so-called because in ground radio receivers they sound like a chorus of chirping bird-songs."

Very good article:
[link to www.spacedaily.com]

THEMIS mission homepage:

[link to www.nasa.gov]

On Spaceweather.com

UPDATE: At first this CME did not appear heading for Earth. However, a new analysis by forecasters at the Goddard Space Weather Lab shows that the cloud will indeed hit Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 26th at 13:30 UT (+/- 7 hr):

animated forecast track.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]

+/- 7 Hours!?

That's a bit of a difference ey?

Two more CMEs detected; one from beyond the northeast limb and one from the northwest limb. Neither eruption seems to be Earth-directed.

SOHO Cor 2:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

STEREO Ahead:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

One cme has his source from a spot closly behind the new region on the east limb

Stereo Behind EUVI
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

RED ALERT!!!

Giant spike in PROTONS. WTF is this from?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]