SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) | |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 10770979 United States 03/04/2012 10:29 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | sunspot numbers are dropping when they should be rising. While this drop in SSN number might appear to some as a signal for a possible peaking of cycle 24, there is other evidence that suggests otherwise. For example the Solar Polar Field Strength. Usually the polarity of the North and South solar hemispheres flips at solar max. As you can see in the graph we are close but not quite there yet. And, it has flattened out compared with previous recent transitions. [link to wattsupwiththat.com] |
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>> User ID: 11842072 United States 03/04/2012 10:34 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 11850216 United States 03/04/2012 11:07 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I am sure it is not going to have any effect on earth.BTW once it becomes earth side it will lose its power to produce solar flares 100% confident Mark my words. The sun will be quite this week.100%confident. Unless you have some direct connection with a "higher power" I'm not sure where you coming up with your conclusions, not to mention, incorrect ones. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 11891956 Portugal 03/04/2012 11:08 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Quoting: Luisport This is going on for five hours and it's rising again!!! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 11458371 United Kingdom 03/04/2012 11:09 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | climbing again! [link to www.solarham.com] |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 11198416 Germany 03/04/2012 11:28 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | A filament in the northern hemisphere, east side of the solar disk, erupted around 1UT, March 04. The active region 1429, located near one end of the filament was at that moment flaring in the B-level. This active region was the source of 2 M-flares and several C-flares from March 02 onwards. With the M2.0 flare peaking at 10:45 this morning, another CME is associated. Because of the location of the source region on the solar disk, the CME's are probably not ejected straight to Earth. More M-flares are likely. There might be a small geomagnetic influence (K=3-4) from the long stretched coronal hole in the southern hemisphere from tomorrow onwards. [link to sidc.oma.be] Mar 04 1601 UTC CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 5369266 United Kingdom 03/04/2012 11:44 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The electron flux has been following this basic pattern for over twelve years now Actually you are wrong..this is choppy..it usually flows alot more smoothly than this. The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 11898933 United States 03/04/2012 11:47 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Okay we have a new LDE Flare Quoting: IwantToBelieve76 :samgiflongdurati: A long duration M2.0 Solar Flare peaked this morning at 10:45 UTC and its still in pogress :xraymarch4: check X-ray: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] We noticed also a radioburst (Tenflare) It reached 750 pfu What is a Tenflare: A tenflare is associated with optical and x-ray flares. Solar flares emit radiation over a very wide range of frequencies. One of the more significant frequencies observed is the 10.7 cm wavelength band (2695 MHz). When a solar flare erupts, "noise" from the flare is received over this very wide range of frequencies. When the noise received on the 10.7 cm wavelength band surpasses 100% of the background noise level during a solar flare, a Tenflare is said to be in progress. The more intense solar flares are associated with tenflares. Almost all major flares are associated with tenflares. Generally, the greater the intensity of the burst of noise observed at the 10.7 cm wavelength band, the more significant the flare is said to be. The duration of the tenflare can also be used to determine the severity of the flare. Other important flare characteristics are also determined from the radio data observed from flares, which are closely related to the various physical processes which occur in flares. These characteristics are far beyond the scope of this document. [link to www.sci.fi] :sdo131mflaremarc: Enlarge: [link to i1220.photobucket.com] A CME was also inbounded as we can see on Stereo images :CMEstereoaheadm2: :StereoBehindcmem: Latest StereoBehind C2: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Region 1429 is not in earthview right now but the CME looks bright. A portion of this cme could be geoeffective [link to www.youtube.com] Edit: Current Sunspots 15:21UTC 03/04/2012 [link to i1220.photobucket.com] What are you seeing at the end of the video? Was that a filament eruption B4 the M-flare? That CME seemed to have a backside and frontside projection. [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] SOHO has a crucial 5-hour data gap: [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 5369266 United Kingdom 03/04/2012 11:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thanks to those who answered my earlier questions.. i was just wondering if there is a program where you can go back and see the orbit of the moon and earth etc on a ceratin date in the past.. i think i remember seeng something from jpl i think it was.. maybe i was wrong.. if someone can help me with a link that would be awesome Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11802684 I just had a quick look for a program for you but to no avail..If you have'nt already you could search 'Cornell University,Moon Orbit is Wrong'..I can remember seeing that a little while back. The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 10498853 United States 03/04/2012 11:54 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | A filament in the northern hemisphere, east side of the solar disk, erupted around 1UT, March 04. The active region 1429, located near one end of the filament was at that moment flaring in the B-level. This active region was the source of 2 M-flares and several C-flares from March 02 onwards. With the M2.0 flare peaking at 10:45 this morning, another CME is associated. Because of the location of the source region on the solar disk, the CME's are probably not ejected straight to Earth. More M-flares are likely. There might be a small geomagnetic influence (K=3-4) from the long stretched coronal hole in the southern hemisphere from tomorrow onwards. Quoting: IwantToBelieve76 [link to sidc.oma.be] Mar 04 1601 UTC CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] this is something i posted on another thread that was talking about the sunspot number so many of us will see all over the place how the sunspot number is so low and because of this, were expecting a weak peak to this solar cycle, and that it could be a few more years before we event see the solar max its not the sunspots that we need to worrie about they wont really do much damage to us here on Earth what we need to be watching is the CME's and Filaments the mass the sun flings at earth is what will do major damage here on the ground you know, before this solar cycle, they use to say that Filaments on the sun were a rare thing now we see them all over the sun and they snap and lift off almost as much as we see ordinary CME's We are in solar cycle 24 right now with this cycle about to peak just a quick look back at the time directly before solar cycle 23 peaked, in 2001, will tell a story "Sept. 13, 2000 -- On Monday, Sept. 11, the sunspot number dropped to its lowest value of the year. The face of the Sun looked remarkably blank with only a few tiny spots visible in telescopes." "You don't need sunspots to have filaments, so these types of explosions can occur even when the sunspot number is low." [link to science.nasa.gov] only 7 months after the above report, we seen the 2nd largest solar flare ever recorded "a very large solar flare occurred on April 2, 2001, an X20-class, but the blast was directed away from Earth. This flare was the second most powerful ever recorded" [link to en.wikipedia.org] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 5369266 United Kingdom 03/04/2012 11:59 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hey all : ) It's looking pretty mean out there! 1429 looks kinda' ugly as does the leader spot formed infront of it(should'nt it be behind!?) [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] The Southern SS also looks quite messy..Action on! The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 5369266 United Kingdom 03/04/2012 12:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Okay we have a new LDE Flare Quoting: IwantToBelieve76 :samgiflongdurati: A long duration M2.0 Solar Flare peaked this morning at 10:45 UTC and its still in pogress :xraymarch4: check X-ray: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] We noticed also a radioburst (Tenflare) It reached 750 pfu What is a Tenflare: A tenflare is associated with optical and x-ray flares. Solar flares emit radiation over a very wide range of frequencies. One of the more significant frequencies observed is the 10.7 cm wavelength band (2695 MHz). When a solar flare erupts, "noise" from the flare is received over this very wide range of frequencies. When the noise received on the 10.7 cm wavelength band surpasses 100% of the background noise level during a solar flare, a Tenflare is said to be in progress. The more intense solar flares are associated with tenflares. Almost all major flares are associated with tenflares. Generally, the greater the intensity of the burst of noise observed at the 10.7 cm wavelength band, the more significant the flare is said to be. The duration of the tenflare can also be used to determine the severity of the flare. Other important flare characteristics are also determined from the radio data observed from flares, which are closely related to the various physical processes which occur in flares. These characteristics are far beyond the scope of this document. [link to www.sci.fi] :sdo131mflaremarc: Enlarge: [link to i1220.photobucket.com] A CME was also inbounded as we can see on Stereo images :CMEstereoaheadm2: :StereoBehindcmem: Latest StereoBehind C2: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Region 1429 is not in earthview right now but the CME looks bright. A portion of this cme could be geoeffective [link to www.youtube.com] Edit: Current Sunspots 15:21UTC 03/04/2012 [link to i1220.photobucket.com] Brilliant stuff there IWTB! The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 5369266 United Kingdom 03/04/2012 12:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | A filament in the northern hemisphere, east side of the solar disk, erupted around 1UT, March 04. The active region 1429, located near one end of the filament was at that moment flaring in the B-level. This active region was the source of 2 M-flares and several C-flares from March 02 onwards. With the M2.0 flare peaking at 10:45 this morning, another CME is associated. Because of the location of the source region on the solar disk, the CME's are probably not ejected straight to Earth. More M-flares are likely. There might be a small geomagnetic influence (K=3-4) from the long stretched coronal hole in the southern hemisphere from tomorrow onwards. Quoting: IwantToBelieve76 [link to sidc.oma.be] Mar 04 1601 UTC CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] this is something i posted on another thread that was talking about the sunspot number so many of us will see all over the place how the sunspot number is so low and because of this, were expecting a weak peak to this solar cycle, and that it could be a few more years before we event see the solar max its not the sunspots that we need to worrie about they wont really do much damage to us here on Earth what we need to be watching is the CME's and Filaments the mass the sun flings at earth is what will do major damage here on the ground you know, before this solar cycle, they use to say that Filaments on the sun were a rare thing now we see them all over the sun and they snap and lift off almost as much as we see ordinary CME's We are in solar cycle 24 right now with this cycle about to peak just a quick look back at the time directly before solar cycle 23 peaked, in 2001, will tell a story "Sept. 13, 2000 -- On Monday, Sept. 11, the sunspot number dropped to its lowest value of the year. The face of the Sun looked remarkably blank with only a few tiny spots visible in telescopes." "You don't need sunspots to have filaments, so these types of explosions can occur even when the sunspot number is low." [link to science.nasa.gov] only 7 months after the above report, we seen the 2nd largest solar flare ever recorded "a very large solar flare occurred on April 2, 2001, an X20-class, but the blast was directed away from Earth. This flare was the second most powerful ever recorded" [link to en.wikipedia.org] Thanks for that NiNz : ) The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 5369266 United Kingdom 03/04/2012 12:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I just counted 19 C Flares and Two M Flares since the end of the 2nd March..I think that is the correct Number: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 03/04/2012 12:26 PM The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 11898933 United States 03/04/2012 12:21 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thanks to those who answered my earlier questions.. i was just wondering if there is a program where you can go back and see the orbit of the moon and earth etc on a ceratin date in the past.. i think i remember seeng something from jpl i think it was.. maybe i was wrong.. if someone can help me with a link that would be awesome Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11802684 I just had a quick look for a program for you but to no avail..If you have'nt already you could search 'Cornell University,Moon Orbit is Wrong'..I can remember seeing that a little while back. Your best bet is download a free planetarium software like Celestia or Stellarium: [link to www.stellarium.org] [link to www.shatters.net] It's freeware and you'll always have it on your 'pooter. Or you can wrestle with the JPL Horizons database here: [link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov] JPL Moon page: [link to nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov] more from ephemris.com: [link to ephemeris.com] |
shadasonic User ID: 10309055 United States 03/04/2012 12:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I am sure it is not going to have any effect on earth.BTW once it becomes earth side it will lose its power to produce solar flares 100% confident Rhetoric sounds an awful lot like an astro physicist I know “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 11898933 United States 03/04/2012 12:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 11198416 Germany 03/04/2012 12:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | nice one hugh, check out Stereo Behind Euvi 195 [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Nice flare and eruption (cme) on the farside east ISWA Cygnet Streamer: [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] Event Issue Date: 2012-03-04 15:06:24.0 GMT CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-06 04:29:09.0 GMT Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours Disturbance Duration: 13 hours Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.6 Re Tue, 06 Mar 2012 04:29:09 GMT Tue, 06 Mar 2012 17:29:09 GMT [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 10498853 United States 03/04/2012 01:03 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | lots of action today i have a feeling this is a perset for what we have to look forward to this week 1429 looks like she wants to put on a good show for us on this rotation Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/04/2012 01:03 PM Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 9968554 United States 03/04/2012 01:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 11898933 United States 03/04/2012 01:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | nice one hugh, check out Stereo Behind Euvi 195 [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Nice flare and eruption (cme) on the farside east ISWA Cygnet Streamer: [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] Event Issue Date: 2012-03-04 15:06:24.0 GMT CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-06 04:29:09.0 GMT Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours Disturbance Duration: 13 hours Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.6 Re Tue, 06 Mar 2012 04:29:09 GMT Tue, 06 Mar 2012 17:29:09 GMT [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] Wow, the Sun's waking up! That farside blast looked like one of those tsunami events. The M-flare CME will make for a bad-hair day on Mercury and Venus. Earth gets lucky again with the usual glancing blow. Here's a few recent SDO images showing the C3 flare from 1427 and the intense coronal loops above 1429.... beautiful images. 171a: [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] 304a: [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Comp: [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Two new active regions are forming now--a small one in the southwest and the more obvious one to the west of 1429. [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 11898933 United States 03/04/2012 01:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | lots of action today Quoting: NiNzrez i have a feeling this is a perset for what we have to look forward to this week 1429 looks like she wants to put on a good show for us on this rotation Howdy, NIN, thanks for putting an historical perspective on those SS numbers. In the 27-day rotation chart, you can see how quiet the x-ray flux has been since the X-flare. The proverbial calm before the storm perhaps. [link to translate.google.de] |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 10498853 United States 03/04/2012 01:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | lots of action today Quoting: NiNzrez i have a feeling this is a perset for what we have to look forward to this week 1429 looks like she wants to put on a good show for us on this rotation Howdy, NIN, thanks for putting an historical perspective on those SS numbers. In the 27-day rotation chart, you can see how quiet the x-ray flux has been since the X-flare. The proverbial calm before the storm perhaps. [link to translate.google.de] hey Hugh :) it is the clam that happens before the storm, and thats exactly why i went and got that info for this thread so many people all over the place are saying this will be the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years and from what i have seen, most are basing this on the sunspot number this is calming the masses but anyone can see with a simple google search, the low sunspot number does not tell us a story on a non eventfull solar cycle let the flare blast off left and right they are not what im think we should be so so concerned with watch the CME's and Filaments!! as the sun reverses polaritys at its max, sure we will see more solar flares, but keep a very close eye on the material the sun flings in our direction Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/04/2012 01:53 PM Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 11898933 United States 03/04/2012 01:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I notice a strange rise in ACE protons 2-3 hours BEFORE the M-flare. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] ACE electrons rise also, but after the flare as would be expected: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] I thought this was odd. |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 10498853 United States 03/04/2012 01:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thread: Russia Today: Deadly asteroid bounds towards Earth out of the blue Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 10498853 United States 03/04/2012 01:57 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I notice a strange rise in ACE protons 2-3 hours BEFORE the M-flare. Quoting: Hugh M Eye [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] ACE electrons rise also, but after the flare as would be expected: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] I thought this was odd. i believe that was caused by this CME we can see that started around 08:00 (top right) [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] it might be small, but we can see on that image a nice pocket of compressed mass in the very front of it Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |