lots of action today
i have a feeling this is a perset for what we have to look forward to this week
1429 looks like she wants to put on a good show for us on this rotation
Quoting: NiNzrez Howdy, NIN, thanks for putting an historical perspective on those SS numbers. In the 27-day rotation chart, you can see how quiet the x-ray flux has been since the X-flare. The proverbial calm before the storm perhaps.
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link to translate.google.de]
hey Hugh :)
it is the clam that happens before the storm, and thats exactly why i went and got that info for this thread
so many people all over the place are saying this will be the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years
and from what i have seen, most are basing this on the sunspot number
this is calming the masses
but anyone can see with a simple google search, the low sunspot number does not tell us a story on a non eventfull solar cycle
let the flare blast off left and right
they are not what im think we should be so so concerned with
watch the CME's and Filaments!!
as the sun reverses polaritys at its max, sure we will see more solar flares, but keep a very close eye on the material the sun flings in our direction
So true. Also remember Cycle 23 had two distinct peaks (2001 & 2003) and an unusually deep minimum, too. This is such a nascent field of science we cannot put solar activity into neat little predictable boxes of human design.
From the Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union:
The peak of the Solar cycle 21 was at 1979, but high energetic Solar flares, or secondary peaks, occurred at the declining phase in 1981, 1982, and 1984 before the solar activity minimum in 1986. Also, the peak of the solar cycle 22 was at 1989 but high energetic solar flares occurred at the declining phase in 1991, 1992, and 1994, before the solar activity minimum in 1996. Then the secondary peaks were occurred during 2 to 3 years after the first peak, as deduced from the last five solar cycles. The period of 19 Oct. to 4 Nov. 2003 is the second peak of the solar cycle 23, where the main peak of the solar cycle 23 was at 2001. There are many terrestrial influences, due to the solar activity during Oct.-Nov. 2003. These influences are studied in details, especially the geomagnetic storms and their effects on humankind daily activity.
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link to journals.cambridge.org]
Twin Peaks: [
link to www.spacetoday.org]
you brought up a good point
there has been evidence that some solar cycles have 2 peaks
around 2 years apart
with a lot of activity between these 2 peaks
Reported about solar cycle 23 :
The Resurgent Sun
Evidence is mounting that some solar cycles are double-peaked. The ongoing solar maximum may itself be a double
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link to science.nasa.gov]
Twin Peaks? However, solar scientists noticed in 2002 what some called an odd second peak in the solar cycle. Was activity on the Sun increasing again? Sunspots peppered the star's surface.
[
link to www.spacetoday.org]
Dual-peak solar cycle distribution of intense geomagnetic storms
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link to www.sciencedirect.com]
[
link to adsabs.harvard.edu]
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link to www.agu.org]
Scientists predict next solar cycle peak
Space weather forecasters can't agree on how intense coming storm will be
4/25/2007 9:30:02 PM ET
WASHINGTON — The peak of the next sunspot cycle is expected in late 2011 or mid-2012 — potentially affecting airline flights, communications satellites and electrical transmissions. But forecasters can't agree on how intense it will be
A 12-member panel charged with forecasting the solar cycle said Wednesday it is evenly split over whether the peak will be 90 sunspots or 140 sunspots.
Half of the specialists predicted a moderately strong cycle of 140 sunspots expected to peak in October of 2011, while the rest called for a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspots peaking in August of 2012.
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link to www.msnbc.msn.com]
