SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

looking over the most recent SDO images, i see a possible CME just occured from region 1427 in the northwestern area
We need stereo A to start updating to see this one better

So true. Also remember Cycle 23 had two distinct peaks (2001 & 2003) and an unusually deep minimum, too. This is such a nascent field of science we cannot put solar activity into neat little predictable boxes of human design.
From the Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union:

The peak of the Solar cycle 21 was at 1979, but high energetic Solar flares, or secondary peaks, occurred at the declining phase in 1981, 1982, and 1984 before the solar activity minimum in 1986. Also, the peak of the solar cycle 22 was at 1989 but high energetic solar flares occurred at the declining phase in 1991, 1992, and 1994, before the solar activity minimum in 1996. Then the secondary peaks were occurred during 2 to 3 years after the first peak, as deduced from the last five solar cycles. The period of 19 Oct. to 4 Nov. 2003 is the second peak of the solar cycle 23, where the main peak of the solar cycle 23 was at 2001. There are many terrestrial influences, due to the solar activity during Oct.-Nov. 2003. These influences are studied in details, especially the geomagnetic storms and their effects on humankind daily activity.
[link to journals.cambridge.org]

Twin Peaks: [link to www.spacetoday.org]

you brought up a good point
there has been evidence that some solar cycles have 2 peaks
around 2 years apart
with a lot of activity between these 2 peaks

Reported about solar cycle 23 :

The Resurgent Sun
Evidence is mounting that some solar cycles are double-peaked. The ongoing solar maximum may itself be a double
[link to science.nasa.gov]

Twin Peaks? However, solar scientists noticed in 2002 what some called an odd second peak in the solar cycle. Was activity on the Sun increasing again? Sunspots peppered the star's surface.
[link to www.spacetoday.org]

Dual-peak solar cycle distribution of intense geomagnetic storms
[link to www.sciencedirect.com]
[link to adsabs.harvard.edu]
[link to www.agu.org]

Scientists predict next solar cycle peak
Space weather forecasters can't agree on how intense coming storm will be

4/25/2007 9:30:02 PM ET
WASHINGTON — The peak of the next sunspot cycle is expected in late 2011 or mid-2012 — potentially affecting airline flights, communications satellites and electrical transmissions. But forecasters can't agree on how intense it will be
A 12-member panel charged with forecasting the solar cycle said Wednesday it is evenly split over whether the peak will be 90 sunspots or 140 sunspots.
Half of the specialists predicted a moderately strong cycle of 140 sunspots expected to peak in October of 2011, while the rest called for a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspots peaking in August of 2012.
[link to www.msnbc.msn.com]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/04/2012 02:53 PM

2013....Asteroid of Doom approaches!

[link to rt.com]

Comet Garradd sports 3 tails.... closest approach to Earth is tonight.

[link to apod.nasa.gov]

Slow-moving meteor filmed over UK yesterday.



[link to www.youtube.com]

here, we can see some GREAT graphs that show this solar cycle in comparison to older solar cycles
these graphs were last updated March 2nd 2012

Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update March 2, 2012)
[link to www.solen.info]

Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update March 2, 2012)
[link to www.solen.info]

Thanks for digging this up. That first chart shows that many of these cycles have big dips and rises. One cycle even had 4 peaks. Anyway, it doesn't matter too much how high the peak is, it only takes one well-placed event to set us back 200 years.

NIN, HUGH,IWTB, what would happen if the sun wasn't allowed to complete its polar shift,if something affected this process. A good friend has the belief that this cycle has stalled because of particle manipulation by our interstellar fluff.I have my doubts, but the sun is different in its behavior and my mind drifts to what ifs.

1429 has connected with the leader spots infront of it(un-numbered)..awaiting a *snap*: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

I wont say it,though I want to.

Does anyone know the configuration of 1429 and 1428 as of now?

Significant earthquake precursor signal detected on 03/04/12 at 2230utc/1730est. Possible 6+ to,possibly, above 7.

Radio Direction Finder has signal coming in East of France from somewhere out in the Northern, Mid to Southern portions of the Pacific plate to Alaska, Canada and Chile.


All who live anywhere in the vicinity of this line trajectory should be wary next 5 hours. Have escape plan ready and seek open terrain in the event of felt tremor. Secure most of your heavy objects and belongings around your home.


Namaste,

Hopefully I am wrong. Or it hits an unpopulated area.
Japan is also a likely target. Be wary.

Looks like she's either holding back for a flare-up or this cycle will be a bit of a whimper.

Thank you for those comparisons.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 March 2012 2200 UTC

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. A long duration M2/1N
flare was observed at 04/1052Z from Region 1429 (N18E55).
Associated with the event was a 750 sfu Tenflare, Type IV Radio
Sweep, and a CME first visible in STEREO B COR 2 Imagery at 04/1210Z
(estimated speed of 840 km/s). This region is classified as a Dkc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Further
analysis of the CME will be necessary as imagery becomes available,
however there appears to be a partial Earth-directed component. A
glancing blow is possible from this event.


Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a slight chance for an X-class flare
from Region 1429.


Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions with an
isolated major storm period observed at high latitudes between
04/0900 - 1200Z. Activity was due to extended periods of the
negative Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field near -5
nT. The solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was relatively
steady near 380 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.


Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (05 March). Activity levels
are expected to increase on day 2 (06 March) due to a possible
glancing blow from today's CME associated with the M2/1N flare.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected with isolated minor
storm periods possible. Conditions are expected to settle down to
mostly quiet to unsettled conditions by day 3 (07 March) as the
effects of the CME wane. There is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429 for the forecast period.


Event Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 15/15/15

[link to www.spaceref.com]

Brilliant!

Thank you for that IWTB!
I just subbed to your YT Channel by the way : )

Good stuff,I look forward to more.

LOL thx, np

btw anyone check STEREO Behind EUVI we have some new action near 1429
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

The Protons do look like they are rising: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

So yes,I expect a fair bit from 1429 and it's developing leader spot(which should be behind it).

That's unless it just falls apart and dissipates quite quickly like some of the others we have seen recently,though I doubt that due to it's growth and size.

C 1.0 Flare at 23:35 according to the 1 Minute data..the Behind Link wont' load for me this end..was there an associated CME?

yep, some kind of eruption

Okay, maybe you can see it via imagery:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Just about make out something arcing over the limb..is this what you mean?

Yes, close to 1429. Damn, will upload a vid later^^. Its better to see in a clip

Okay here is a short vid, download it its not that huge
[link to www.file-upload.net]

Rising..could be..something..maybe.

: )

Yep, 1429. C3.4-be alert for the old double-punch.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

here we go again:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

damn, wanna sleep^^


[link to www.youtube.com]

puh, C 4.7...damn better i go fast now haha

good night gang :)

Night!

We're on this one for now : )

Good-night, IWTB.
Confirmed double-shot from 1429.

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

Also another big far-side CME eruption.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

That is indeed quite a big eruption!

is that the beginning of another,Top-Left..or is that just bleed from the Sun?

Double Post.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 03/04/2012 08:34 PM

That is indeed quite a big eruption!

Is that the beginning of another,Top-Left..or is that just bleed from the Sun?

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 03/04/2012 08:32 PM

Things are heating up big time... I really expect to see an X out of 1429...

yup the protons are on the rise
[link to www.solarham.com]
i suspect this is from a possible CME produced with the C1.0 flare, the C4.7, or both

STEREO A and B have not updated for a few hours
now im waiting on SDO to update to see if we can see a CME, and if so, from where

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/04/2012 08:41 PM

The Protons were on the rise prior to the C-1/4.7 double punch,I think it's related to the M Flares.

I think : ?