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Message Subject SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Poster Handle Hugh M Eye
Post Content
From the lastest SIDC Daily Bulletin:

An unnumbered
sunspot group appeared from behind the north-east limb and produced a
CME (not a halo) this morning. C- and even M-class flares are possible
in this active region. SOHO/LASCO detected a full halo CME in
association with the M6.3 flare
in Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR
1429) this morning. The CME first appeared in the LASCO C2 field of view
at 04:14 UT and had a speed around 750 km/s. We expect the CME arrival
at the Earth late on March 11 - early on March 12
. An evaluation of the
possible erupting flux rope orientation on the basis of HMI photospheric
magnetograms and AIA images of the post-eruption arcade gives the
south-east-north (SEN, left-handed) configuration. Due to the position
of the CME source region close to the solar central meridian, we expect
a nearly central encounter of the resulting ICME, which will probably be
a magnetic cloud with leading southward field. A strong geomagnetic
storm (K = 7 or higher) is probable.
The Earth is now inside the
post-shock solar wind flow generated by the ICME corresponding to the
halo CME erupted on March 7. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is
currently southward, resulting in a severe magnetic storm (K = 7
reported by NOAA). Although the IMF magnitude is not very high (around
10 nT), it was strongly fluctuating in the past 24 hours, so a further
development of the storm is not excluded. The solar wind speed measured
by SOHO/CELIAS is currently high (around 900 km/s) and CELIAS data
exhibit two important discontinuities in the solar wind speed today (at
03:44 UT and 08:18 UT). Neither of these discontinuities seems to
correspond to a sudden increase of the IMF magnitude measured by ACE, so
they do not appear to be shock waves. The SEP event is still on-going.

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nastycme
 
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