SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Happy Birthday Hugh!!!!!!!!!!

I won't try to match TomasGod in the picture department. He won the prize for that so just sending you a party:
ana:.

Oh man, the stupid smile didn't work. I'll try again...

Eidt post. I have NEVER though my brain puny and primitive. And the guy was from Yale not Harvard, same diffence. I have been drinking but my point was made nonetheless. Getting people to realize that the universe is infinite and we are not alone is like convincing them that the Sun can and will wreak some havoc on their mudane little lives. They won't believe it until it happens. How can they not know or understand that this will happen? I look forward to the Sun Doom to take out all the controltards and all their stupid little apps the sheep feed upon.

The term "kill shot" is a reference to a "remote viewer" who shall remain un-named...kind of a sick joke, pardon me.
Yes, there may be serious consequences to one or more of these extreme CME events. Not NASA, not NOAA, or anyone can really predict what will happen until it happens. Please re-read the posts from the last 3 or 4 pages carefully. I have shown that in 2008, scientific experts couldn't even agree on the DEFINITION of what a CME was! They are only guessing and "stabbing-in-the-dark" with their predictions. They may be 2% more accurate than a guy w/ a dart-board, but they make a helluva lot more money (thanx to the suckerz, the taxpayerz).
I guarantee that I've worked harder today to get a grip on what's happening with the Sun & geo-space than any one person with NASA or NOAA, and probably the Geospatial Intelligence Agency & the Air Force Weather Squadron. I'm not bragging...I wish I got paid , but I do it out of LOVE.
A sub-storm, like in 1989, flashed-up within a ten-minute (or less) surge of geo-magnetically-induced current energy. There's no way to predict exactly where or when the weak link in the grid will fail. There's a hundred unpredictable variables, we can only shut stuff down to be cautious, and that costs money. So they plan to make every dollar until shit fails catastrophically.

I think the underestimated threat of a major geomagnetic storm is the satellite infrastructure. Not just losing GPS or ATMs for a day or two; but what if one or more satellites lose their orientation, orbital path, communication, or power source due to excessive charging or radiation exposure. One failed satellite,off of its course, could lead to a cascade of colliding satellites; each collision spraying 1000's of pieces of shrapnel to destroy other space assets. Near-Earth orbit could be rendered uninhabitable for generations.

You must be one of those highly 'intelligent' liberals huh?

btw..EVERY politician in DC thinks the same way

I feel like the CME that was to arrive is already hitting. My daughter and I both are feeling like are hearts are beating faster. anyone else?

If THEY (Those Having Enslaved You) were trying to help in any way, THEY would be all over the TV (especially at election time) telling you how wonderful they are. It's a global operation, and no one's grabbing the credit for a wonderful thing their doing. All the best to you and your's also, friend.

Thanks, Oracle! I hope to survive this hectic month. Solar March Madness!
Thanks for your encouragement. god bless.

What do you think we are doing? DUH!

Huge spike in the NICT data chart, but I don't see anything on ACE yet.

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Hugh- So you are expecting more flares from the sun.The sun I think has gone quite.Now unless a similar SS like 1429 comes into view i would expect a quit sun.

What do you mean by hectic month.We survived a X flare and its CME and I am sure the coming CME's will be no big deal.

What is your views. Pls let us know if we need to be prepared

Point Made!!! I suffer from a Pollyanna syndrome sometimes. Lol. My son tells me often that I need to stop being so trusting of intentions. I have had my ass handed to me enough I should be more suspicious. :) Anyway, headed to bed. Good night and have a great Sunday!

Always be prepared. I only meant we've had 2 CME-induced storms so far and 2 more on the way. And last week we had storms from filament eruptions and coronal hole wind streams. This is all part of the solar maximum. Stay alert for space weather satellite failures and /or power outages.
Please read the SOLAR STORM THREAT ANALYSIS-

PDF:
[link to www.breadandbutterscience.com]

Solar Energetic particle Event Effects:

[link to conceptactivityresearchvault.wordpress.com]

Hugh - Do you know how many CME's were earth directed during the solar storm 23 ? was there any filament erruption in solar cycle 23 ?

This is just to know what to expect from this solar flare cycle.

A very large prominence spanning the equivalent of at least 18 planet Earth's across is seen in the latest SDO images off the southeast limb.

Prominences are dense clouds of material suspended above the surface of the Sun by loops of magnetic field. Prominences and filaments are actually the same thing, except that prominences are seen projecting out above the limb, or edge, of the Sun. Both filaments and prominences can remain in a quiet or quiescent state for days or weeks. However, as the magnetic loops that support them slowly change, filaments and prominences can erupt and rise off of the Sun over the course of a few minutes or hours.New Sunspot in formation located in the southeast quadrant. Image by SDO. [link to www.facebook.com]

Is it a filament ?Is it earth directed?

northeast limb looking absolutely gnarly

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Hi Hugh! Happy to answer. It looks to me like the CMEs were a combo from Regions 1430 and 1429 with 1430 leading. Generally once these Regions start getting this far toward the western limb, CMEs from that far out tend to only give us a glancing blow. However, anything that shows up on SOHO as a full halo CME usually is geoeffective. As to the orientation; I was going to do a presentation on this and just haven't had a chance yet. I wanted to have some mark ups of the SDO magnetogram for good visual aid. This cycle we started off with a high latitude sunspot in 2008, marking the beginning of cycle 24, and it was reversed in polarity from last cycles showing that the Suns poles had reversed as they do each new cycle. All the northern hemisphere regions should be N S, and we can see this represented on the magnetogram by the White for N(non colorized, Blue colorized), and Black for S(non colorized, Red colorized). Early on in the cycle almost all of the Sunspot Regions conform to this tidy standard with all northern hemisphere Regions being N S, and all southern Regions being S N. You can see this on the SDO Magnetogram. CMEs from the N S polarity Regions in the northern hemisphere arrive here with a southward orientation and CMEs from the S N polarity Regions in the southern hemisphere arrive here with a northward orientation. As the cycle progresses the polarity orientation of these regions begins to fluctuate and a close eye has to be kept on them to know what the orientation of the CME will be. Region 1429 is reversed in orientation in the northern hemisphere from all the others. It is oriented S N like all southern hemisphere regions and when the CME arrived on the 8th it was oriented north to south. I believe this one will be as well. When the CME that was ejected from both regions 1430 and 1429 arrive I believe it may very well arrive oriented S N but may also be one of those storms that the BznT swings back and forth constantly on.

:)

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 03/11/2012 07:02 AM

speed between 1200 -
1400 km/s??? Gezzz the last CME from the x flare don't reach the 1000km/sec... this will be bad isn't it?

The last CME actually had an estimated plane of sky ejection speed of 2200 km/s. The Highest wind speed data observed from SOHO Celias during the passage of the CME was 980.80 km/s

Ok, and now for this one what do you think?

What is this big drop in blue line means? [link to www.n3kl.org]

there was about an hours gap on the 1 minute graph

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

For some reason the quantity was significantly lower when the graph re-updated, so the 5 minute chart had a line that dropped the difference from the high amount down to the new reading instantly, instead of whatever dip actually occurred in the reading.

Short answer is the x-ray flux dropped that much in an hour.

I never see a drop like this but ok...

For the one that ejected today? I do not know, we will probably have Coronal Hole Winds along with it so it is hard to guess. I will take a guess for todays CME and say the top winds will be between 650 to 700 km/s but it is just that..an educated guess.

Backround never goes to zero. There is a gap in the data from the satellite line of site to the
Sun being eclipsed by the Moon.

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 03/11/2012 06:51 AM

Looks like starting

Induction magnetometer: [link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

[link to www.n3kl.org] yes it seams to...