SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Your opinion counts. The more the merrier.

here you can see this CH on the last rotation
[link to www.solen.info]

the 2 areas have grown and are merging
as solar max comes closer, we will see more large low latitude coronal holes as well as ones closer to the equator.
here is just one piece of reading material on how we can expect high winds from these CH's with speeds of 600-750 km s

[link to adsabs.harvard.edu]

there has also been quite a bit of study of the corilation between large coronal holes and CME's occuring
[link to www.agu.org]

i have been mainly focusing on coronal holes in my spare time because so much study shows us that these large cotonal holes tell us a lot more about whats going on with the sun than previously thought
[link to www.agu.org]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/13/2012 11:05 AM

i have not had a chance yet today to go through all the solar sites to see whats going on
if i see a reason i will pop in with the answer and links ^^
i figured i would spend some time this morning to go through the last few pages of posts
wow you guys really got this thread poppin! haha
i go to sleep and wake up to many new pages
some great info being posted
great job everyone :)

Sounds like you need to hire a personal assistant.

Thanks Nin it's what I figured. Now like Hugh has stated, we just wait and see what magnetic polarity it will have.

Pure disinfo!

Could The shape of that massive coronal hole on the sun should teach us something about how the conveyer belts, on the sun, work? Maybe?

I typically try and figure it out myself, but just couldn't today, and also couldn't just let it alone.
Thanks Nin

Update: the cancelled the Sudden impulse A>50
Comment: Conditions for this Watch are no longer present.
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

But have a continued the warning for electron flux :

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1872
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 10 0410 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1336 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Solar Update / Today in History
------------------------------------

Solar activity has been low with only C-Class flares detected within the past 24 hours. Sunspot 1429 continues to decay in both size and magnetic complexity. This former gigantic sunspot is now rotating towards the western limb and will soon be out of direct Earth view. Sunspots 1432 and 1433 will be the next regions to monitor, but currently both are magnetically stable.

Geomagnetic Activity is now at lower levels around our poles. Incoming CME shocks did generate a Moderate G2 Geomagnetic Storm (KP=7) early Monday morning and bright Aurora was visible over parts of North America before sunrise. Expect conditions for the remainder of the week to be much quieter.

Today in history on March 13, 1989, a massive blackout occurred in Quebec, leaving millions without power for several hours. A large Geomagnetic Storm tripped circuit breakers on Hydro-Québec's power grid which led to the blackout event. Power was restored 9 hours later.

Finally, the image attached is all of the current visible sunspots numbered. [link to www.facebook.com]

do you have a link for that please?
as to the bolded line...
when protons and electrons are high outside of earths magnetosphere, some protons and electrons do make it through the magnetosphere
it all depends on the condition of the magnetosphere at the very moment the protons and electrons hit it.
it is still shielded, just, with higher amounts, more makes it through

You working on your Phd. NiN??

Hot Damn!!



Z

Ya think??? I have no opinion one way or the other, just presenting what I find on the matter, considering he has a doctorate and I don't, I would consider his opinion/research on the subject worth consideration.

But to each their own.

i do feel like it at times haha

I was actually refering to Nin....she sounds like she's got a tiger by the tail....

LOL, I'm sure you were. It was my way of apologizing for putting her in the position of needing one for all the needy people like me here ....

i had to search through my bookmarks to find the link i wanted to give earlier
this paper explains a lot for anyone wanting to know whats going on with the coronal holes and their roll in all the solar activity we are seeing
[link to docs.google.com (secure)]

[link to adsabs.harvard.edu]

after reading the links i have given, we see that as solar max comes, we see lower speeds from the coronal holes located at the equator

"We announce the resurgence of extreme ion properties in a large, high-latitude coronal hole observed above the north heliographic pole in 2001 February at solar maximum. The observations were taken with the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory"
[link to iopscience.iop.org]

with that paper, it was was writen according to the last solar max
so we need to keep in mind that after that solar max, there was a solar polar reversal
at this max, everything is reversed
and the northern coronal holes spoken about in that paper, would now be southern coronal holes during this solar max

how coronal holes tell us about a solar field polar reversal
[link to www.aanda.org]

and a super nice paper that goes over a little bit of everything, with some nice images
[link to docs.google.com (secure)]

yes, they tell us A LOT about the solar surface

Thanks Nin. Very informative as usual. So if the Sun's field had not reversed then that triangle would be upside down. A reversal could also be in progress for the near future.

haha i wish Zack ^^
i believe the coronal holes can be used as a type of "predictor" on solar activity
learn more about coronal holes, and be able to know what type of solar activity to expect
i use the coronal holes right now to tell me what type of activity to expect
but i keep a lot of it to myself until im sure of it
at that point, i usually come on here and let everyone know to watch for flares, or CME's
with this large CH, im watching for a CME
but i still have more data and images to go over
watch close the winds this CH brings
if the winds are slow, or fast, tell us whats happening on the solar surface :)
(all the info on CH wind speed is posted in the above links as well and the reply post i gave ElQ, just above this post)

Hope your doing well Zack :)

ooo never apologizing here ^^
ask away!
if i cant get to answer a question, many other great solar watchers on here unualy do :)

i guess thats one way of looking at it ^^
i cant say there is a reversal going on right now
a lot happens before there is a actual reversal
solar activity has picked up, but is no where near what it will be when there is the actual solar reversal for cycle 24
these are all just signs to watch for
so that we are better prepared for and have a better clue as to when the reversal is coming :)

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/13/2012 12:10 PM

here is an image, that shows the sun each year of cycle 23
[link to 3.bp.blogspot.com]
with the solar max of solar cycle 23 being in 2 phases (as most believe)
one in 2001, and yet another in 2003

on this image you can see what the sun looked like when it reached the solar max for solar cycle 23

and another view on the same progression:
"Eleven years in the life of the Sun, spanning most of solar cycle 23, as it progressed from solar minimum to maximum conditions and back to minimum (upper right) again, seen as a collage of ten full-disk images of the lower corona."
[link to www.nasa.gov]
main link the image is from
[link to www.nasa.gov]

and this one from the SOHO team
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]


here is the curent image for today, March 13th. from SOHO
[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]

some of you may find these images very telling ^^

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/13/2012 12:32 PM

This is why I turn to you when trying to figure out Sun activity that could possibly lead to seismic activity.

Namaste and many thanks.

we sure have seen a corilation between large coronal holes and high scale quake activity
when the winds from this CH reach us, around the 16th, IMO we should be on high quake alert

So the conclusion would then be:

1) The sun is at or near maximum now (and early) and we could see activity tapering off early, or
2) Because it's still early in the maximum and the sun is already exhibiting characteristics of the last maximum, this maximum is going to be even more intense.

Am I saying this correctly?

I second that.

pretty much
im leaning tword a mix of #1 and #2
The sun is near to the maximum now and this one will be more intense

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/13/2012 12:58 PM

Xray flux is rising
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

C4.2 now and going up