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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Doompa Loompa

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03/15/2012 01:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I'm an astronomer primarily, but I've looked into this (especially during the ELENIN hysteria). If it were true, don't you think there would be plenty of documentation (at lea"st from the past 35 years)? There isn't."

Apparently, there is no such thing as discovery and everything that will ever be known already is. Also, apparently four earthquakes in the exact locations of the two TEC swells is not evidence that there is some correlation between the two.
 Quoting: aaronnoraa711

Check when they had other EQ's? Say, look up 2009 when the sun was dormant...or maybe look up 3 weeks ago when the X-ray flux was flat---I'll bet you'll find just as many of these inconsequential EQ's.You have no argument unless you can show a definite relationship over time. Not this week or last week, but over an extended period. Believe me , if there was any obvious relationship there would be scientific papers and graphs and big $ grants behind this. There ain't! The eveidence, in fact, proves the opposite. There is NO CONNECTION 'tween EQs and solar activity. Don't believe the hype!

While I'm at it, let me put the "planetary-alignment" theory to rest also. That way I can just refer all future bug-a-boos to this post. Page 699 & don't you forget it!
In 1982 there was an unusual alignment where the planets were within a 102 degree radius of the solar system. A great fear-mongering campaign was caused by a book "The Jupiter Effect" which predicted all kinds of Earthly havoc. Massive earthquakes, floods, etc., etc. (sound familiar yet?). This was THE GREATEST ALIGNMENT OF PLANETS FOR OVER 800 YEARS! Nothing happened! In fact it was a below-average year for disasters. The gravitational effect of a Sun-Jupiter alignment on the Earth is less than 1 millimeter (the Moon is much more influential).

"Then there is the proposed 1982 Jupiter Effect! This is a prediction of major earthquakes during 1982 due to an unusual alignment of the planets. Especially targeted for destruction is the Los Angeles region of the San Andreas fault system."

[link to www.icr.org]

[link to en.wikipedia.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Preach it! Well said, in my opinion.
pinkcherryblossom

User ID: 11776479
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03/15/2012 01:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I'm an astronomer primarily, but I've looked into this (especially during the ELENIN hysteria). If it were true, don't you think there would be plenty of documentation (at lea"st from the past 35 years)? There isn't."

Apparently, there is no such thing as discovery and everything that will ever be known already is. Also, apparently four earthquakes in the exact locations of the two TEC swells is not evidence that there is some correlation between the two.
 Quoting: aaronnoraa711

Check when they had other EQ's? Say, look up 2009 when the sun was dormant...or maybe look up 3 weeks ago when the X-ray flux was flat---I'll bet you'll find just as many of these inconsequential EQ's.You have no argument unless you can show a definite relationship over time. Not this week or last week, but over an extended period. Believe me , if there was any obvious relationship there would be scientific papers and graphs and big $ grants behind this. There ain't! The eveidence, in fact, proves the opposite. There is NO CONNECTION 'tween EQs and solar activity. Don't believe the hype!

While I'm at it, let me put the "planetary-alignment" theory to rest also. That way I can just refer all future bug-a-boos to this post. Page 699 & don't you forget it!
In 1982 there was an unusual alignment where the planets were within a 102 degree radius of the solar system. A great fear-mongering campaign was caused by a book "The Jupiter Effect" which predicted all kinds of Earthly havoc. Massive earthquakes, floods, etc., etc. (sound familiar yet?). This was THE GREATEST ALIGNMENT OF PLANETS FOR OVER 800 YEARS! Nothing happened! In fact it was a below-average year for disasters. The gravitational effect of a Sun-Jupiter alignment on the Earth is less than 1 millimeter (the Moon is much more influential).

"Then there is the proposed 1982 Jupiter Effect! This is a prediction of major earthquakes during 1982 due to an unusual alignment of the planets. Especially targeted for destruction is the Los Angeles region of the San Andreas fault system."

[link to www.icr.org]

[link to en.wikipedia.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Preach it! Well said, in my opinion.
 Quoting: Doompa Loompa


brava!

clappa
Anonymous Coward
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Denmark
03/15/2012 04:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
don't know about ya'll, but that triangle shaped coronal hole is starting to freak me out a bit
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: mtn_mang


yeAH
most cams are out but i found one working

check the latest

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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03/15/2012 04:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Another M flare...i just woke up so i don't know if any body has posted it yet....looks like a M2....cant do much on my phone to see which SS it came from

Last Edited by <<LOOK`n thru YOU>> on 03/15/2012 05:07 AM
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 05:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Looks like it was 1432...

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

--
alexisj9

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03/15/2012 06:30 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
don't know about ya'll, but that triangle shaped coronal hole is starting to freak me out a bit
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: mtn_mang


yeAH
most cams are out but i found one working

check the latest

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12461063


wow that one makes the sun look so pretty.
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 06:30 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Spaceweather.com is reporting bright red aurora in the Southern Hemisphere.-

GEOMAGNETIC STORM UNDERWAY: A moderate G2-class geomagnetic storm is underway following the arrival of a CME on March 12th at ~0930 UT. The CME's impact caused strong ground currents in Norway. At the same time, photographic Southern Lights were recorded over New Zealand and Tasmania. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

Strong spike in ground currents detected in Nowrway.
Graph of CME impact:

[link to spaceweather.com]

NASA Magnetopause Simulation (watch what happens @09:30 utc):

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
:Mpause:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Go back and rewatch the magnetopause simulation from 16:00 on...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9645331


[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
What the hell is going on??
Looks like the magneopause has flipped!

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8330762


It is strange looking is'nt it!?

It does look like the Magnetosphere's Tail is going from pointing one direction then the other,as well as alot of matter entering the Magnetopause!?

I really don't think that was 'Snap-Back' we are seeing there.
..not sure at all : ?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Um!?

Wtf?

People please look at this now: [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Why is the Magnetopause flipping around all over the shop!?

That is the Magnetopause highlighted by the Yellow Band is'nt it!?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium



This is a screenshot from shortly after yesterday's impact. Lots of pressure pushing the magnetopause within the geosynchronus orbit.
:Mpause:

This screenshot is from 20:24 UTC, about 10 hours later.
:mpause1:

And this one is from 23:40 UTC.
:mpause2:

NICT is still unavailable or I would try to find to find corresponding data so we might get some insights. NASA's data is pretty accessible on the web; however they don't any tutorials on interpreting their arcane graphs, glyphs, and models. All their educational stuff seems aimed at 5th-graders. Everything else must be cleared by secret-handshakes, LOL.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Why does it look like that? Have you seen it looking this way before? I had noticed it but dismissed it cause NICT is down and am unable to compare.
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12031867




WTF...."solar wind" not from our sun?
not a lot of discusion on this here...
Hugh M Eye

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03/15/2012 06:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Another M flare...i just woke up so i don't know if any body has posted it yet....looks like a M2....cant do much on my phone to see which SS it came from
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Looks like it was 1432...

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

--
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6592383


Yes, another Earth-direct M-flare and mini-CME from 1432. Last night 1432 was right in Earth's magnetic footprint.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NICT is off-line again. Did we ever get hit with the expected CME? ACE shows an increase in solar wind speed.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Looks pretty quiet so far:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Back to sleep now, see ya later.
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 06:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Spaceweather.com is reporting bright red aurora in the Southern Hemisphere.-

GEOMAGNETIC STORM UNDERWAY: A moderate G2-class geomagnetic storm is underway following the arrival of a CME on March 12th at ~0930 UT. The CME's impact caused strong ground currents in Norway. At the same time, photographic Southern Lights were recorded over New Zealand and Tasmania. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

Strong spike in ground currents detected in Nowrway.
Graph of CME impact:

[link to spaceweather.com]

NASA Magnetopause Simulation (watch what happens @09:30 utc):

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
:Mpause:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Go back and rewatch the magnetopause simulation from 16:00 on...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9645331


[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
What the hell is going on??
Looks like the magneopause has flipped!

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8330762


It is strange looking is'nt it!?

It does look like the Magnetosphere's Tail is going from pointing one direction then the other,as well as alot of matter entering the Magnetopause!?

I really don't think that was 'Snap-Back' we are seeing there.
..not sure at all : ?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Um!?

Wtf?

People please look at this now: [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Why is the Magnetopause flipping around all over the shop!?

That is the Magnetopause highlighted by the Yellow Band is'nt it!?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium



This is a screenshot from shortly after yesterday's impact. Lots of pressure pushing the magnetopause within the geosynchronus orbit.
:Mpause:

This screenshot is from 20:24 UTC, about 10 hours later.
:mpause1:

And this one is from 23:40 UTC.
:mpause2:

NICT is still unavailable or I would try to find to find corresponding data so we might get some insights. NASA's data is pretty accessible on the web; however they don't any tutorials on interpreting their arcane graphs, glyphs, and models. All their educational stuff seems aimed at 5th-graders. Everything else must be cleared by secret-handshakes, LOL.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Why does it look like that? Have you seen it looking this way before? I had noticed it but dismissed it cause NICT is down and am unable to compare.
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12031867





WTF...."solar wind" not from our sun?
not a lot of discusion on this here...

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12031867


OOOps, included wrong video with that post....meant to include this one....

shenue

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03/15/2012 07:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good Morning All.
Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become your character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny.
Doobie

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03/15/2012 07:15 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good Morning!
And congrats on 700 pages!
One of 2 personal pins on GLP, and I read first every day.
Many thanks to all who contribute, with special thanks to Nin!

moshpit
Earth does not belong to man, man belongs to Earth
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 07:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
CME for last 2 M flares are negligable considering the kind of CME we got hit last week. Looks like a quite week going forward
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 07:42 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 08:13 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good morning all hf

I remember a few months ago having C flares that began looking like an EKG.

It's looking like M's turn. An M a day keeps the suntards at play :)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
nerdrage88sasr

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03/15/2012 08:17 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good morning all hf

I remember a few months having C flares that began looking like an EKG.

It's looking like M's turn. An M a day keeps the suntards at play :)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


lol, nice!
ANd morning TS grinning
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
OVRANALYZE

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03/15/2012 08:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good morning all hf

I remember a few months having C flares that began looking like an EKG.

It's looking like M's turn. An M a day keeps the suntards at play :)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


lmao

Last Edited by OVRANALYZE on 03/15/2012 08:19 AM
MamaHasAwakened

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03/15/2012 08:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good morning all hf

I remember a few months ago having C flares that began looking like an EKG.

It's looking like M's turn. An M a day keeps the suntards at play :)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66




chuckle
WingnAPrayer

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03/15/2012 09:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Check out the current wind speed.....666.6
nerdrage88sasr

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03/15/2012 09:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Check out the current wind speed.....666.6
 Quoting: WingnAPrayer


violin
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
nerdrage88sasr

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03/15/2012 09:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

positive Mag North took a dive

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 09:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
CME incoming?

[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

We just got a new CME arrival calculation in from NASA.

Event Issue Date: 2012-03-13 20:18:02.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-15 06:20:06.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.1 Re

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

--
nerdrage88sasr

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03/15/2012 09:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Check out the current wind speed.....666.6
 Quoting: WingnAPrayer


up to 770 and climbing!
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
MamaHasAwakened

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03/15/2012 09:13 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I'm guessing NICT down.

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Blank screen for me.
aether

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03/15/2012 09:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good Morning!
And congrats on 700 pages!
One of 2 personal pins on GLP, and I read first every day.
Many thanks to all who contribute, with special thanks to Nin!

moshpit
 Quoting: Doobie


bump
nerdrage88sasr

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03/15/2012 09:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Interesting- just put up, not sure if anyone has seen/discussed this yet?

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov] EG5&orb=1
[link to spaceweather.com]

On April 02nd - Comet 2012EG5 will come .7 LD from earth, 65m radius...but get this CON CODE 9!!

interesting yes? they must be going through the data still? as it changes its details reguarly?

Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 09:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I prefer visuals, the graphs make me nauseous (seriously !! ) This is not as user friendly as NICT, but you can see the electron flux hit around 12:15 UTC today.

UTC time right now is 3/15/12 13:19

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

So it would seem that yes we have pressure coming in from "out there" this morning.

Perhaps this (From Nin's blog)

We just got a new CME arrival calculation in from NASA.

Event Issue Date: 2012-03-13 20:18:02.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-15 06:20:06.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours

Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.1 Re

[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
WingnAPrayer

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03/15/2012 09:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Interesting- just put up, not sure if anyone has seen/discussed this yet?

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov] EG5&orb=1
[link to spaceweather.com]

On April 02nd - Comet 2012EG5 will come .7 LD from earth, 65m radius...but get this CON CODE 9!!

interesting yes? they must be going through the data still? as it changes its details reguarly?

Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Hmmm- It was updated just yesterday... Interesting Indeed!
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 09:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Interesting- just put up, not sure if anyone has seen/discussed this yet?

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov] EG5&orb=1
[link to spaceweather.com]

On April 02nd - Comet 2012EG5 will come .7 LD from earth, 65m radius...but get this CON CODE 9!!

interesting yes? they must be going through the data still? as it changes its details reguarly?

Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Wow !! Absolutely !! Another one within the moon's orbital path. Looks like July 3 2015 within .624 AU.

[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]

Nice catch hf
Hugh M Eye

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03/15/2012 09:53 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Well, it's here!

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 149
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 15 1314 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Mar 15 1309 UTC
Deviation: 27 nT
Station: Boulder

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Real-time magnetopase and bow-shock simulation:

[link to pixie.spasci.com]

ACE SW data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
whiteangel
also known at WA

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03/15/2012 10:20 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Bz heading way south and solar winds picking up.

Showing a rise in K-index:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Isaiah 5:20 KJV
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
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