SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

NOAA alert extended for 24 more hours.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1897
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 16 2331 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1896
Valid From: 2012 Mar 15 1300 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 18 0100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Electron Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 03/16/2012 08:09 PM

Wow, thank you Hugh. I have been surfing the internet for ever trying to find something like this.

Notice the Hz in frequency that these quakes show up on. Well the precursor signals come from the same range. If I only had a converter for my spectrum lab program so it converts the incoming signals into sound similar to that presentation.

I'm pretty sure that just came out. I think the trick was the frequency compression to make the sounds audible. I thought of you as soon as i saw it, LOL.

The spectacular filament eruption does not appear to be Earth-directed. Another large piece of filament seems to erupting now, even further north. Latest movie from Mauna Loa Observatory:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

STEREO A:
:filamentC2A:

SOHO C3:
:filamentC3:

That is what spectrum lab does. It compresses the signal and I get an image every 40 seconds compressed down to like 1 Hz width. I wish it had a sound converter too. Then I can hear the sounds and fine tune it to my specifications. Make it sound like that clip.

Hey Nin, not sure if you saw this already. Patrick Geryl is predicting an X flare on March 19 followed by a larger X on March 21. I posted a thread at Thread: Possible X-FLARE on March 19 followed by larger X-FLARE on March 21! And no, this isn't from Frankie MacDonald. Will be interesting to see if he's on to something.

Have a great weekend!

Patrick Geryl is a tool...
Have a great weekend!
Peace

Although i'm still not certain what we're looking at, I may have been hasty in poo-pooing the apparent magnetosphere reversal during the March 12th CME storm. If you look at the"normal" model here we see the solar winds pass the Earth in a pretty uniform direction. I took a recent snapshot to represent normal conditions.
:windnormal:

I went and found a snapshot from 3/12 (picking a random timeframe during the peak of the magnetic storm between 18:00 and 23:00 UTC) which shows the arrows going towards the sun instead of away from it.


Here is a "normal" magnetosphere sim from today:
:magnormal:

Compare to a magnetosphere model from the same "storm" time as above:


I confess my experience with these models is nil, so I have no idea if these are unusual or typical of a high-energy CME impact. I did notice that the BATS-R-US is created at the University of Michigan, so maybe NINzrez can look up someone involved at Michigan to give us more insight. Images from these models are only available for two weeks online, so if you want to explore the data from 3/12 don't wait too long. Go to this page and scroll down where it says "choose image" and then click on "show new images" and it will display the archived image from the time you choose. Sorry, but there's no way to link to each image (it took a lot of work just to post these samples).

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thanks to the AC who posted this criteria behind the models:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Well, I'll be damned; my interest is highly peak on this. Thank you so much for the graphs and info on where you got them. I hope this is normal, but not so sure it is.

BTW, a friend of the family who is a nurse at UAB, which is a large hospital in Birmingham, Alabama, called tonight to inform me that they were warned to be prepared for long term rolling blackouts and other issues due to emissions from the sun. She never discussed these issues with me or any of my family members in the past, but she knew from my son that I was a solar watcher. She was upset about the situation and taking it seriously.

Its good to be open and prepare people .

Wasn't that a full moon night?

This information may have merit on this topic:

Moon and the Magnetotail

“Earth’s magnetotail extends well beyond the orbit of the moon and, once a month, the moon orbits through it,” says Tim Stubbs, a University of Maryland scientist working at the Goddard Space Flight Center. “This can have consequences ranging from lunar ‘dust storms’ to electrostatic discharges.”

<snip>

Anyone can tell when the moon is inside the magnetotail. Just look: “If the moon is full, it is inside the magnetotail,” says Stubbs. “The moon enters the magnetotail three days before it is full and takes about six days to cross and exit on the other side.”

<snip>

Earth’s magnetotail isn’t the only source of plasma to charge the moon. Solar wind can provide charged particles, too; indeed, most of the time, the solar wind is the primary source. But when the moon enters the magnetotail, the solar wind is pushed back and the plasma sheet takes over. The plasma sheet is about 10 times hotter than the solar wind and that gives it more "punch" when it comes to altering the charge balance of the moon's surface. Two million degree electrons in the plasma sheet race around like crazy and many of them hit the moon's surface. Solar wind electrons are relatively cool at only 140 thousand degrees, and fewer of them zip all the way down to the shadowed surface of the moon's nightside.
[link to www.nasa.gov]

This from El in Gabriel's thread:
Thread: F.O.G. (Page 329)

Magnetic lines of the Magnetosphere's tail coming into contact. They are positive and negatively charged. When they touch they explode and send that energy hurtling back onto the night side of the earth. Kind of like what happens when you join the positive and negative ends of high voltage electrical cables, you get an explosion.

From NASA;

IMAGE, launched March 25, 2000, also revealed some surprising activity during magnetic storms, which occur when the solar wind pummels the Earth's magnetosphere. The night-side region of the magnetosphere, which is stretched out by the solar wind, sometimes snaps back and shoots plasma violently toward Earth. The plasma becomes heated to several hundred million degrees and whirls around Earth in multi-million-amp currents. IMAGE discovered that such plasma occasionally is most dense on the Earth's day side, which was unexpected. Researchers are currently studying the phenomenon.

Earth's Invisible Magnetic Tail
[link to science.nasa.gov]

Kudos back at ya Hugh. Thanks Look'n. Love this thread. A hearty thanks also to those at mysolaralerts and to all of the other posters here making this thread extremely informative.


Hugh, the 4th image you posted, the one with the broken lines, is proof positive that at least part of the BATSRUS model could not handle the data correctly. It might just be the graphical end (how to draw the lines connecting data values) but those lines most surely do not accurately represent numerical values.

Contour lines (imaginary lines connecting equal values) do not break. Nor do they end (except when leaving the frame of the graphic). Take for example the contour lines on a topographic map, a two dimensional representation of a three dimensional space... elevated and depressed areas are represented by closed loops, rule of v's (the v points uphill or to higher values), contour lines can never cross, etc.

Which is sort of nitpicking I guess. The shaded blue areas do seem to indicate a reversal of "normal" values. Perhaps "typical" would be a better word, because how unusual is it for flow to be towards the dark side of the earth? And what are the repercussions of same? I'm guessing it's not that uncommon and that the negative impacts on humanity are nil. I can't see that a reversal would be inherently dangerous. The red contour lines would seem to indicate an appropriate response... the larger, more bulbous loops are facing incoming in both the typical and reversed flow graphics.

I played a round of the golf game you linked to (full disclosure... played through 7, threw 9-iron into woods... hate golf) and if I remember correctly there was at least one "hole" that indicated reverse flow was normal. Isis7's link to the 2001 (long ago!) NASA article indicates the same.

I'd love to see some visual output of this event along the lines of the modeling in the study I linked to before using "...25,000 ...processors [working] for 11 days to follow the motions of 180 billion simulated particles...". Though if I had to choose between that, and a somewhat less than accurate representation in realtime, I'd choose the realtime.

--

interesting indeed Hugh, good find!!

the 'wave anomoly' (as i call it) is back at Yellowstone.. Mary River chart...

[link to www.isthisthingon.org]

started late yesterday, and still running now...are we being with anything at the moment? Solar Wind is running at 678...maybe its a reflection of the Solar Wind effecting the EQ activity here?

but why only that area? may have to do a bit deeper research into Mary Lake and try and find a reason for this...its odd...

Peace

Patrick Geryl is a plagiarist and a fucking idiot. He tried to copy my method of predicting solar flares and has an accuracy rating about equal to what one would expect from random dart throwing. I no longer publish my own predictions for the simple reason I don't want to help ''them' prepare to shield their satellites, the majority of which are now used to make the planet into a prison without walls. Personally, i'd like to see them all fail ,life was much better before this alien technology was proliferated... I will continue to give real time reports of radiation danger on the surface of the planet on real time so people can protect themselves. As for posting to this thread, i see no point since we already have so many experts here.

Thanks to Isis7 for pointing out the Moon's effects on the magnetotail. I believe this was definitely a big factor. In fact I saw the moon that morning just before sunrise and I imagined seeing a dust-cloud around it....maybe it was real after all. Also the magnetotail's crurent sheets do reverse the flow of charged particles
towards Earth's night-side, this we've already considered. I think moon's position may have introduced some chaos into the modeling data. I completely forgot about the moon and it's not shown in any of the models I've seen.

Nevertheless, I'm still interested in the broken shape of the magnetopause and bow-shock on the sunny side. If the Bz had persisted in a south polarity, this could have been a tremendous geomagnetic storm. We got lucky this time.

Anyway, just for comparison, here is another storm snapshot from approx. 3 hours after the one I posted earlier.
:mag2300:
:wind2300:

Check the weather for that area, see if there are high winds. Sometimes high winds register on those seismogram.

May be getting a small M here

M 1.3 Flare 17th 20:39

Guess Its picking right back up for me, while I was away a couple days :)

Great find hugh, alot to mull over!

have we hit the wall on an explanation here?
wow i come to this thread for the smart ones. all is very quiet.

Space Weather Alerts and Warnings Timeline
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 783
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 17 2106 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 17 2038 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1140 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Hi hugh, kinda grabbed your post to EL and wish to ask a question if thats ok...

if the gamma rays, cosmic rays etc that come with a flare pass through the magnetosphere, at what point are they dangerous to us? What size flare gives off high enough levels of this radiation to be dangerous if at all? .. cheers

M1.3 Flare on 3/17/2012 @ 20:39 UTC - Sunspot 1434

saw there was an M so thought i would come in here and see if everyone saw it
a bit unexpected
i will set aside some time tomorrow morning to sit and go through the pages i have missed
were having a St. pats celebration here tonight
everyone have a wonderful weekend and be safe :)

psyoptics

I think I should put all that information on a different thread. psyoptics, you wouldn't come to this thread if you didn't feel it's important information discussed by intelligent persons.

peace

Last Edited by Isis7 on 03/17/2012 09:10 PM

Thanks Nin, enjoy your St Pats celebration:)

Okay, been looking and not finding it, but how lond as Nict been down??

We work hard here on this thread..but we all have a life. Stay tuned...

Days

Was it damaged. Sorry I haven't been payig close attention last couple of days, fighting a bug.

Me, too..
The nict has been down due to the satillite shuting down into "safe mode" because of the solar storms. That's the official story. I think they just don't want anyone to see right now.