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REPORT ABUSIVE REPLY
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Message Subject
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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
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Poster Handle
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tomasgod1 |
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Post Content
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Although there was a large S/F and CME from old Sunspot Region 1429 that contributed to the halo CME there was also a filament eruption from the NE limb immediatly after, followed by a C5.3 flare the 27th @02:50 UTC with an associated CME (seen on SDO) from Sunspot Region 1444. We can expect this latter CME to be geoeffective. NASA and NOAA are not mentioning or giving any calculations for it, but it was very evident on SDO. Since we have no plane of sky ejection data, a rough guess would be that we can expect to see it arrive somewhere between tonight around 11:00 EDT through tomorrow afternoon. [ link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [ link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [ link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [ link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] It looks like they are predicting a storm right around 18:00 on NOAA's simulator too. [ link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] EDIT ** Looks like they haven't updated since the 18th. Ignore it all.  hehe..  Good Morning TS66, Here we can see the CME as it is approaching Earth. It is the large hump between Mercury and Earth on this image from Stereo A HI2. Earth and Mars are very close together right now, so that's why they are written on top of each other and are hard to distinguish between.  Howdy, Tom, great to see you post this morning.  CACTus recorded two Type III halo CMEs within 4 hours. Both were generally from the NE; one on 3/26 @ 2312z and the second @ 0412z on the 27th. CME #1: [ link to www.sidc.oma.be] CME #2: [ link to www.sidc.oma.be] Morning Hugh! Good to see you as well. There were actually 4 in rapid succession. There was a CME associated with a large flare off the E limb from old Region 1429 at approx 2012 Mar 26 @ 22:49 UTC with a type II and IV radio sweep. This was followed immediatley by a filament ejection from the NE limb @23:58 UTC. Less then 3 hours later @ 2:50 UTC March 27, there was a large Earth directed CME ejected from Region 1444 during a C5.3 Sf, and then @ 12:59 UTC there was an ejection from near Region 1445. The majority of the material from 1429 is not Earth directed and the majority of the material from the filament looks to have gone north of the polar cap. If you watch the SDO images from 2:57 untill it blacks out around 06:28 UT on the 27th you will see all the material being ejected from Region 1444. 
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