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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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04/22/2012 06:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Dang...can't beat ya Hugh! Yet too quick!

=)
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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04/22/2012 06:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I haven't been around for a while...spring time always has me running...plus we had last week off from work because of tornado damage my workplace...got diagnosed with lyme disease last friday..wtf if it isnt one thing its another..lol...

Been keeping an eye on the sun regardless...some nice looking sunspots hanging around no doubt..ii kinda expected more action out of them...
Hugh M Eye

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04/22/2012 07:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I haven't been around for a while...spring time always has me running...plus we had last week off from work because of tornado damage my workplace...got diagnosed with lyme disease last friday..wtf if it isnt one thing its another..lol...

Been keeping an eye on the sun regardless...some nice looking sunspots hanging around no doubt..ii kinda expected more action out of them...
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Hey, great to see ya Look'n.hi Sorry to hear about the Lymes and tornadoes. I didn't know that Lymes ranged that far west. What town got the tornado? Anyway, much prayers and healing to ya, sun-friend. Be well.

hiding
tomasgod1

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
good morning everyone!
i finally got my pc working again
yay!
i have missed you all and hope everyone is doing good
and it looks like im back just in time for a good sized flare event

chances of flare from 1459:
62% chance of M flare
57% chance of X flare

chances of flare from 1465:
52% chance of M flare
41% chance of X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


twirl
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Hugh M Eye

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04/22/2012 07:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
At 147, this is the highest Sunspot Number we've seen for at least a couple of months and probably for 2012. When the Behemoth 1429 was menacing us back in early March, the SS # only got up to 86.

UPDATE:Out of curiosity I downloaded the Official SIDC Sunspot Numbers for 2012. And this is by far the largest number. The highest SS# this year was a 95 on Jan. 16th and the lowest was a 09 on Feb. 8th.

AR1463 is leaving us now over the limb, soon to be followed by 1462. By way of correction, the CME I posted about earlier was caused by a filament eruption and seemed to be aided by C-flare from 1463. Originally I incorrectly thought the flare produced the CME; but after reviewing the highlight reels, it seems that the prominence was already on the move before the flare.

SDO/AIA close-up movie of 1463's C1.8 flare coinciding with nearby filament activity:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

As the aforementioned active regions leave the scene, we a new growing region (1466?) in the NE. Also two more active regions are soon coming over the eastern horizon--one in the south and one in the north. The SDO 171a image shows a definite trans-equatorial connection between the two.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 04/22/2012 07:46 PM
Hugh M Eye

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04/22/2012 08:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
At 147, this is the highest Sunspot Number we've seen for at least a couple of months and probably for 2012. When the Behemoth 1429 was menacing us back in early March, the SS # only got up to 86.

UPDATE:Out of curiosity I downloaded the Official SIDC Sunspot Numbers for 2012. And this is by far the largest number. The highest SS# this year was a 95 on Jan. 16th and the lowest was a 09 on Feb. 8th.

AR1463 is leaving us now over the limb, soon to be followed by 1462. By way of correction, the CME I posted about earlier was caused by a filament eruption and seemed to be aided by C-flare from 1463. Originally I incorrectly thought the flare produced the CME; but after reviewing the highlight reels, it seems that the prominence was already on the move before the flare.

SDO/AIA close-up movie of 1463's C1.8 flare coinciding with nearby filament activity:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

As the aforementioned active regions leave the scene, we a new growing region (1466?) in the NE. Also two more active regions are soon coming over the eastern horizon--one in the south and one in the north. The SDO 171a image shows a definite trans-equatorial connection between the two.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


SUNSPOT NUMBER-UPDATE II: Out of curiosity (again) I went back to check the Sunspot Numbers for 2011. The highest Sunspot Number for 2011 was a 136 on October 21st. Only 30 times did the SS# reach triple-digits. This makes Friday's number of 162 a new high for Solar Cycle 24! I only wish we had some big flares to match.

5ahiding5a
Vesper33

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04/22/2012 08:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hey Nin!!! So glad you are back, everyone missed you, even us lurkers!!! hf
Perfer et Obdura;Dolor hic tibi proderit olim.Fortes Fortuna Iuvat! (Be Patient & Strong; someday this pain will be useful to you. Fortune favors the brave)
Hugh M Eye

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04/22/2012 08:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
TO HELL WITH SUNSPOT NUMBERS! - UPDATE III

From SIDC's Official Numbers for Oct. 18-24, 2011-

20111018 2011.795 109 73 36
20111019 2011.797 99 61 38
20111020 2011.800 128 83 45
20111021 2011.803 136 90 46
20111022 2011.806 122 87 35
20111023 2011.808 94 77 17
20111024 2011.811 91 79 12

Spaceweather.com's SS# for Oct 21 is 207! WTF? Do they just make up these numbers and then change them later? Yep, so it seems. I knew I recalled a 200 number at some point, that's why I went back and checked the records; and I was puzzled to find 136 as the highest number for 2011. So.....wtf
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

CONCLUSION:These sunspot numbers are a load of horseshit! Firstly, it's an arcane and convoluted formula which only makes sense a few Belgian know-it-alls (these guys still do quaint pencil sketches at their telescopes just like Mr. Carrington in the 1850's).
Secondly, these numbers take no account of the far-side half of the Sun. (off-topic-I think that far-side acoustic imaging is crock, too).
Thirdly, these traditional dogmas and catechisms only occasionally reflect the true activity of the Sun. How many large spots have gone quietly across the sun's face with nary a spark or two. And sometimes a small region produces an M-flare unexpectedly.
Now, I've gotta headache and I blame the Belgians!

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 04/22/2012 08:39 PM
Spittin'Cesium

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04/22/2012 08:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Arr.

Filamentssssssss: [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Wierdness on the North-East of the Disc: [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

1459 go Boom yet?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
MamaHasAwakened

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I haven't been around for a while...spring time always has me running...plus we had last week off from work because of tornado damage my workplace...got diagnosed with lyme disease last friday..wtf if it isnt one thing its another..lol...

Been keeping an eye on the sun regardless...some nice looking sunspots hanging around no doubt..ii kinda expected more action out of them...
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


HI Look N,
Sorry to hear about all of that! Hope it is not too painful for you! Sending good thoughts your way!
I have been watching that x ray flux chart too, waiting for some big flares. I keep thinking they are gonna come anytime now! Hmmmm!
Hope you feel better soon!
shadasonic

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04/22/2012 09:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
This looked interesting [link to www.iris.edu]
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Mad Matt
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04/22/2012 09:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Finally downloaded helioviewer. WOW!!! This is gonna be fun!! Whatched Halloween storm... yeah, we ain't seen nothing yet! Now I completly understand. Thanks for puttin' up with some of my novice questions. LOL!!bump
Mad Matt
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04/22/2012 09:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
uh-oh they just asked me to sign up again. Last time I didn't I got banned???? If I disappear, I signed up on My Solar Alert, and with Dr. Strong(he seems pretty smart). Keep up the awsome work guys...AND gals!!
TBar1984

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04/22/2012 09:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


Is this even possible? Never heard of such a thing.
 Quoting: whiteangel


Here's the article at WUWT. I suggest you consider what Dr. Leif Svalgaard say's in his comment:
Astronomers: World may be entering period of global cooling
[link to wattsupwiththat.com]

"Leif Svalgaard says:
April 21, 2012 at 10:42 am
There are curious differences between the Japanese and English versions of the press release. The Japanese versions abounds with incorrect claims of priority and the usual ‘never seen before’ stuff. The fact is that it is quite normal that the polar fields reverse at different times. This was noted in the very first observations of a polar field reversal [link to www.leif.org]
We have seen the North pole reversal coming for some time, e.g. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 5-9 December, 2011, Early Reversal of the Sun’s Polar Field – Is Solar Cycle 24 Already Peaking?, J T. Hoeksema, SH33A-2044.
The Japanese data is just confirmation of what has been known for a long time and does not call for any revisions of current theories. Currently, the two poles have the same polarity and there are two equatorial patches with the opposite polarity: [link to www.leif.org] but this is nothing new. Science by press release is bad style."

The 2011 article on the AAS Meeting; [link to www.space.com]
 Quoting: TBar1984

For anyone still interested in this, DR. Strong just released a video explaining that two solar poles having the same polarity for a while is nothing new;

shadasonic

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04/22/2012 10:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


Is this even possible? Never heard of such a thing.
 Quoting: whiteangel


Here's the article at WUWT. I suggest you consider what Dr. Leif Svalgaard say's in his comment:
Astronomers: World may be entering period of global cooling
[link to wattsupwiththat.com]

"Leif Svalgaard says:
April 21, 2012 at 10:42 am
There are curious differences between the Japanese and English versions of the press release. The Japanese versions abounds with incorrect claims of priority and the usual ‘never seen before’ stuff. The fact is that it is quite normal that the polar fields reverse at different times. This was noted in the very first observations of a polar field reversal [link to www.leif.org]
We have seen the North pole reversal coming for some time, e.g. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 5-9 December, 2011, Early Reversal of the Sun’s Polar Field – Is Solar Cycle 24 Already Peaking?, J T. Hoeksema, SH33A-2044.
The Japanese data is just confirmation of what has been known for a long time and does not call for any revisions of current theories. Currently, the two poles have the same polarity and there are two equatorial patches with the opposite polarity: [link to www.leif.org] but this is nothing new. Science by press release is bad style."

The 2011 article on the AAS Meeting; [link to www.space.com]
 Quoting: TBar1984

For anyone still interested in this, DR. Strong just released a video explaining that two solar poles having the same polarity for a while is nothing new;


 Quoting: TBar1984


Great video love the butterfly diagrams, visuals do wonders for me! Thanks T Bar!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Spittin'Cesium

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04/22/2012 10:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
1459 - SS and Filament of Death: [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Seriously though : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
tarfonwxx

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04/22/2012 10:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
another one..C2 @ 2am UTC

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
joinca

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04/23/2012 12:04 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 110
Issue Time: 2012 Apr 23 0244 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2012 Apr 23 0314 UTC >Valid To: 2012 Apr 23 0344 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2012 Apr 23 0227 UTC

And this:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1911
Issue Time: 2012 Apr 23 0327 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Apr 23 0327 UTC >Valid To: 2012 Apr 23 0800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
popcorn
"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
Anonymous Coward
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04/23/2012 01:09 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
31 Nt shock. Is that a tiny impulse?
Anonymous Coward
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04/23/2012 01:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hugh the dingbats are at it again. From the SWPC and the Air Force.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (23 -
24 April) with a chance for active levels due mainly to a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream. Weak CME-passage effects are also
possible on day 1 from the partial-halo CME observed on 19 April.
Field activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on day
3 (25 April).

I guess they were to busy figuring out the next ss#! LOL

=P
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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04/23/2012 05:18 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I haven't been around for a while...spring time always has me running...plus we had last week off from work because of tornado damage my workplace...got diagnosed with lyme disease last friday..wtf if it isnt one thing its another..lol...

Been keeping an eye on the sun regardless...some nice looking sunspots hanging around no doubt..ii kinda expected more action out of them...
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Hey, great to see ya Look'n.hi Sorry to hear about the Lymes and tornadoes. I didn't know that Lymes ranged that far west. What town got the tornado? Anyway, much prayers and healing to ya, sun-friend. Be well.

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hugh...it was Wichita ks....tore the place up pretty good...i still cant believe nobody got killed...very lucky conssidering it was a night time twister...
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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04/23/2012 05:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I haven't been around for a while...spring time always has me running...plus we had last week off from work because of tornado damage my workplace...got diagnosed with lyme disease last friday..wtf if it isnt one thing its another..lol...

Been keeping an eye on the sun regardless...some nice looking sunspots hanging around no doubt..ii kinda expected more action out of them...
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


HI Look N,
Sorry to hear about all of that! Hope it is not too painful for you! Sending good thoughts your way!
I have been watching that x ray flux chart too, waiting for some big flares. I keep thinking they are gonna come anytime now! Hmmmm!
Hope you feel better soon!
 Quoting: MamaHasAwakened


Thanks Mama....i get checked every year about this time because i get so many ticks on me whiile mushroom hunting for morels...i havent even had any symptoms yet...got me on a 21 day treatment of antibiotics...hopefully that takes care of it..getting it caught early is a good thing
shenue

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04/23/2012 09:51 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
good morning all
Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become your character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny.
Hugh M Eye

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04/23/2012 11:46 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 110
Issue Time: 2012 Apr 23 0244 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2012 Apr 23 0314 UTC >Valid To: 2012 Apr 23 0344 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2012 Apr 23 0227 UTC

And this:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1911
Issue Time: 2012 Apr 23 0327 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Apr 23 0327 UTC >Valid To: 2012 Apr 23 0800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
popcorn
 Quoting: joinca


Nice catch, Joinca. One of those CMEs decided to hit while I was asleep, hehe.
Hugh M Eye

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04/23/2012 11:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
good morning all
 Quoting: shenue


Good Morning, Shenue!hfhf

It seems Boulder has experienced several hours of storm-level (K=5) geomagnetic disturbance. Looks like another wave is hitting now, too.

Boulder Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

K-indices:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Electron flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

And it's snowing in Pittsburgh!
joinca

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04/23/2012 12:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hugh
Everyone here is so diligent about the sun news. California gives an extra hour and it is nice to be able to contribute!
banana2

Last Edited by joinca on 04/23/2012 12:32 PM
"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
joinca

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04/23/2012 12:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
An incomplete list of possible Interplanetary Shocks observed by the PM
23 Apr 2012 (DOY 114 0230 UT) zone 4, [link to umtof.umd.edu]

The Shockspotter program attempts to identify possible interplanetary shocks using the near-real time data from the CELIAS/MTOF/PM sensor on the SOHO spacecraft. The 3 most recent shock candidates are listed on the PM home page [link to umtof.umd.edu]
"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
Anonymous Coward
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04/23/2012 01:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Science hit with double flops in a week: no dark matter around Sun, cosmic rays source not Gamma Ray Bursts

April 23, 2012 – SPACE - Here’s troubling news in the world of astrophysics, in which astronomers can’t seem to find the dark matter.

Source of cosmic rays deepens: The mystery of the origin of the strongest cosmic rays has deepened as new clues into key suspects, the most powerful explosions in the universe, suggest they are likely not potential culprits, researchers say
[link to theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com]
joinca

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04/23/2012 01:13 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Interesting reading
WND
Standoff over devastating impact of EMP attack
Utility report of nominal damage at odds with scientists, engineers.
[link to www.wnd.com]
"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!





GLP