SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Nice comment : )

I have called emailed all contact info on Space weather what is wrong they will not answer

Thread: WARNING: SOLAR DATA PAGE COMPLETELY CENSORED,DATA ON OTHER SOURCES BEING FABRICATED!

Its all starting to look like this guy was correct.

I'm going to ask a really dumb question. I look into this stuff as a hobby.

But would there be any variable added to the equation with venus being between us and the sun? I know venus' atmosphere is eroded away when it's hit (unlike earth.)

Would it do nothing at all? My first thought is that any effect or material stripped from venus wouldn't cross the earth/venus divide or change the CME in any noticeable way.

If anything it would break it up right?

Wow, much to report after a boring morning.

WOO-HOO! SOHO IS BACK IN ACTION.

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

NEW ACTIVE REGION 1477
:2newspots:
:Product: Solar Region Summary
:Issued: 2012 May 09 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 130 Issued at 0030Z on 09 May 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 08 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 08/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1470 S19W68 284 0030 Cro 02 02 Beta
1471 S22W60 277 0120 Cso 05 03 Beta
1474 N14W13 229 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha
1476 N11E35 181 0940 Fkc 17 33 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1477 S22E73 144 0060 Hsx 03 01 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 08/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
1472 S28W80 297
1475 N05W05 222
II. Regions Due to Return 09 May to 11 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
1460 N16 126
1459 S16 110
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

CME that was expected yesterday never materialized, but geo-space is unsettled right now. Whether it's a late flow from the CME or the early effects of the coronal hole stream or the aforementioned sector boundary crossing, I cannot say. Perhaps, it's a combination of things; but I expect unsettled to active storm conditions for the next few days. Get yer aspirin ready, lol.

ACE Solar Wind Data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder K-index at 4.1:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1923
Issue Time: 2012 May 08 2208 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 May 08 2208 UTC
Valid To: 2012 May 09 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

WOOT WOOT for SOHO being back up!!!




Also, has anyone ever heard of Super-Earth before?
Interesting!!!

[link to science.nasa.gov]

Awesome, so thats whats creeping around the corner,always great work Hugh!

Hello, Starwind! Until we get paid, this is a hobby (and passion) for all of us here, LOL. I don't think Venus is big enough compared to a CME (which sometimes expands to an area bigger than the solar disk) to block very much plasma. As we'll witness on June 5-6, even at the transit of Venus directly between Earth & Sun, our sister planet will only appear as a big dot as it crosses the solar disk. More on Venus transit, past & future:

2004: [link to www.transitofvenus.org]
2012: [link to old.transitofvenus.org]

Having just passed the full "superMoon", I'm more interested in the effects of the Moon within the magnetotail. The full Moon seemed to cause some wild effects on the magneto-tail during the big storm in early March if you recall. I'd like to know more about the Lunar influence in geomagnetic storms, if anyone has any good links please post them for us all.

That IS a big hole

SOHO SW data shows an uptick in density followed by a jump in SW velocity from below 300 km/s to near 500 km/s:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

ACE 6-hr. plot also shows an increase in temp., density, and velocity. The Bz is fluctuating from south to north.:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I'm no expert (yet,haha), but we may be seeing a "Co-rotational Interaction Region" (or CIR) between the CME's glancing blow and the leading edge of the coronal hole wind-stream, but this analysis is beyond my pay-grade.
More on CIRs, if you're inclined for deeper research:

[link to ase.tufts.edu]

[link to www.physics.usyd.edu.au]

K index has reached 5 (Storm level) in Tromso & Dombas, Norway:

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]

Kiruna, Sweden Magnetometer very disturbed:

[link to www.irf.se]

GOES Satellite Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Electron Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Real-time Magnetopause & Bowshock simulation:

[link to pixie.spasci.com]

X-FLARE OR BUST! Monster sunspot 1476 almost too big for a smilie!
:1476color:

Currently, geomagnetic conditions still unsettled; Planetary K-index remains at 4:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA Magnetospheric, Ionospheric, and Fok Ring Current models:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

NASA Magnetopause Model (look for a shock at 18:20 UTC & 22:00 UTC):

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Thanks Hugh.

Wow I miss the nict at times like this. Your links helped though.

Hey there Hugh- like the old/new me? I love this hair-do- and I get bad Karma for it all the time, some rednecks think this is really a pix of me, LOL!

I am looking foreward to more sun action, I keep watching.
Thanks for posting.

Do you think the X-ray data is falsified as well? big sunspot and occassionally giving out a M flare 1 per day?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
density just spiked

Extremely bright Northern Lights right now in Winnipeg. I wish my camera was charged so I could take a pic and put it on here. Definately brighter here than I can recall ever seeing from inside the city limits.

im back, going through missed data
Peace

Glad you are back! You are always missed!! :)

Git dem pics, AC! And welcome home NerdRage After a brief study of 1476, I believe that it looks bigger than the "Behemoth 1429" but much more tame. Although I still think an X-flare is possible, I don't see the magnetic volatility and twisted loops that 1429 had (remember it's backwards polarity?). The longer we wait, tho, the bigger the outburst....maybe. It's very polite so far for a spot that huge. Stay alert, Suntards, these things can change at a moments notice.

SDO/HMI Magnetic Field Image:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

As it stands, we still have a large coronal hole and 2 more incoming CMEs. If Tomasgod's polarity theory holds true, at least the one CME should carry a negative polarity (Bz South) and if it mixes with a high-speed coronal hole wind-stream, we could see a significant magnetic storm (and hopefully low-latitude aurora) in the next 48 hours. I have no idea where the second CME came from due to data gaps all-around yesterday. If it was also from the southern hemisphere we could see a strong and persistent event. As usual, we'll have to sit and wait for it. I also miss the NICT visualization....it's sad to lose something so cool. I'm just thankful that they retrieved SOHO from NOHO-land, lol.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1924
Issue Time: 2012 May 09 0556 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1923
Valid From: 2012 May 08 2208 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 May 09 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This ones gonna be nasty
its building
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Peace

Last Edited by nerdrage88sasr on 05/09/2012 05:06 AM

its started decay. 100%quite sunspot & 100% confident it wont flare

Ok they letting us see the 8th but 5 days missing

[link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu]

M1.4 atm
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Peace

Edit-- M2 and climbing...M3.7...M4.6...

Peaked at M4.7...dropped to M4.2 now

Last Edited by nerdrage88sasr on 05/09/2012 08:35 AM

Ummm Hi guys- Pretty big M goin up right now!! Wow- same time as yesterday morning, go figure

Nice .....

looks like 1476 again [link to lasp.colorado.edu]

1455 continues to impress.

Looks like the Spirit of '76 got a BGD configuration: Wonder if that means more spirit comin?

1476 N11E35 181 940 17 FKC 33 BGD

This is a good reference for sunspot classification definitions.

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

beta-gamma-delta: A sunspot group of beta-gamma magnetic classification but containing one (or more) delta spot(s).

The more complex the sunspot ...........

Climbing [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]