SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

same thing you said yesterday
right before the string of M flares we had today
and, if you notice, the flares keep getting bigger and bigger

It there's a CME from this flare, it will be definitely geoeffective. SOHO is out of action again:( STEREO may take an hour or more to confirm any CmE potentials.

My prediction: A string of X-class flares over the next 3-5 days.

comon Hugh, we know by now events with 1476 are mostly a guessing game now haha
everytime it gives us anything, we loose either STEREO or LASCO
its a late april fools
hahahahahaha!
jokes on us it looks like hahaha

s string of them? now that sure would be interesting

I think we should prepare for power outages, and a rapid rise in temperatures.

NOAA alerts issued for M 5.7 flare-

Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 89
Issue Time: 2012 May 10 0429 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2012 May 10 0411 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 May 10 0418 UTC
End Time: 2012 May 10 0423 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.7
Optical Class: 2b
Location: N13E22
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 538
Issue Time: 2012 May 10 0435 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 May 10 0415 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 May 10 0417 UTC
End Time: 2012 May 10 0418 UTC
Duration: 3 minutes
Peak Flux: 690 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 127 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Very interesting, the ACE Proton spike preceded the M-flare by about an hour.
ACE EPAM Plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

So far, the GONG movie is the best record of this event. It's self-updating images indicate a mass of plasma from the weaker eastern edge of 1476 has been sucked up by the monster west-side spot. There is still a good chance for a CME...it will take time & luck to collect the data;/

GONG self-updating movie from Udaipur (YOU! Die poor!):

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Today's and yesterday's intermittent geomagnetic disturbance as modeled by NASA:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Goin' back to M-ville now!

up up again

you all ready for an X?
watching sdo.... its coming

I'm up and ready. How many cme's are coming??

Only a C 7.9 surprisingly....well it looks really big on the H-alpha image:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

After more analysis at SDO. it looks to me that there was indeed a CME associated w/ the M-flare. It appears to me to be mostly east-directed but I would wager that it will be geo-effective nonetheless.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Just found this...
From the SDO blog site
[link to sdoisgo.blogspot.com]

Venus Transit Testing
Today at 1800 UT (2 pm ET) the AIA instrument started testing the instrument modes they will be using during the Venus transit on June 5-6. AIA images will be unavailable until the testing is complete (about 30 minutes). Some of the partial and striped images may be visible. There is nothing wrong with AIA and we will return to our normally scheduled pictures as soon as the testing is finished.
Posted by Dean Pesnell at 2:32 PM

Wednesday, May 9, 2012
Venus transit testing is over
The AIA Venus transit testing is over and images are flowing to the various archives.
Posted by Dean Pesnell at 3:03 PM

This thread rocks!! Keep up the great work!

while these flares are going on, the solar winds hitting earth ar at 642km/sec, density is broken because it's saying density is at 0.1 (hahaha NOT), Bz is right now at 4.0+
geomagnetic conditions are: Unsettled

“When we start to see prominence eruptions above 60 degrees latitude on the sun, then we know that we are reaching solar maximum,” he explained.

[link to zeenews.india.com]

north magnetic transition ahead of south magnetic transition: this will be curious to observe, no?

Hello, finley! I'm beginning to lose track with a little help from NASA, LOL. I personally track CMEs through the SEEDS and CACTus web portals. However, with SOHO offline (yeah, a month after NICT goes away) and STEREO having large data gaps, we're sitting ducks for whatever old Sol throws our way. We may never see it coming......jes' like the good ol' days before NASA.

According to NIN's website blog [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] we're awaiting a CME from 1471 in the south set to arrive any minute now (+/_ 7 hr. window).

At least two CMEs have launched today from 1476 and I believe another small CME came from a flurry of C-flares @ approx. 1:45-2:15 UTC. That CME may be absorbed into the M-flare CME. In any event, at least 3 or 4 CMEs may be heading our way. An active spaceweather week is a safe bet from my view.

Great info, friend! Thanks for posting. Funny how we're facing a potentially dangerous active region and NASA is playing games with all of the their solar observing satellites. My vision of a cosmonaut sticking his head out of the ISS space-window is looking more viable by the hour.

Thanks Hugh. Oh and I like your new avatar. Well we shall see what happens.

NIN just out of curiosity do you have instruments on the ground to measure this stuff?

NO im guessing because it costs to much $$££?

See what im getting at?

heading up again!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

i agree
i see a cme as well
more data needed


M5.7 Flare + CME From Sunspot 1476 & A String Of Big C Flares
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

i wish!
i get the same monitors you all do
and the more they take away, the less we get :/

An SDO movie of M 5 flare in the 171a wavelength:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

1476 is on fire tonight!



i have to get some sleep
i will see if i wake up to an X ^^

nite nite my fellow suntards!
xoxo

Goddnight NIN!

Today's NOAA Active Regions
[link to www.solarmonitor.org]
Group Number 11476
Flares History
/C1.3(08:37)
C1.3(09:47)
C2.1(16:26)
C1.5(19:51)
C1.2(22:28)
C1.4(22:43)
C1.0(22:58)
M4.7(12:21)
M1.8(14:02)
M4.1(21:01)

Look at the Coronal holes:
[link to imageshack.us]

Last Edited by joinca on 05/10/2012 02:24 AM